Canadian GP – Preview. Alonso and Renault keep on turning the screw and their grip on both Championships looks very strong now. The opposition will be hoping for a repeat of 2005 when the two North American races yielded nil points for the Anglo French team, but that is wishful thinking. On current form there is no reason why they will not be very competitive in Montreal, but there is some hope for the chasing pack. The Canadian race has not been a happy hunting ground for Renault/Benetton. In the last 5 races in Montreal they have scored only 6 points, less than Sauber and only a tenth of Ferrari’s tally of 60. So it would seem that past form at least, suggests that it will not be easy for Renault this weekend, but current form carries more weight and Alonso remains the very strong favourite. The fact that Renault failed to score a point last year highlights the two big problems presented by the Circuit de Gilles Villeneuve, it is very hard on cars and it punishes driver errors harshly. It is a tight track and lined with barriers very close to the edge of the track in many places, so a bit like Monaco, a slight mistake at the wrong time means retirement from the race. It was looking like a Renault 1-2 finish when Fisichella, who was leading the race, suffered a mechanical failure. This was quickly followed just 5 laps later by Alonso clipping a barrier and breaking his suspension. The attrition rate in Canada is high, in the last 10 years there has been at least 6 cars not classified and the average has been 9.8 retirements. Even allowing for the fact that there have been as few as 20 cars and up to 24 on the grid, the average retirement rate in the last 5 years is 40% and over the last 10 years 45%. On past results it would be a surprise if we get more than 13 -14 classified finishers. Canada has been the race with the highest retirement rate in 3 of the last 5 years, so it looks a good opportunity to bet on a lot of retirements. 8 points less than 15.5 classified finishers @ 1.90 with Sportingbet, SportingOdds. won 7.20 points The high attrition rate can make match betting a bit of a lucky dip but opens opportunities for some of the outsiders to score a few points, or perhaps a new face on the podium, much like Melbourne this season. There we had just 13 finishers and ended up with Ralf Schumacher on the podium and Scott Speed in 8th (later moved back to 11th in the stewards room). Last year Montreal saw a Minardi just 3 places off the points and a Sauber in 4th, their best finish of the season. You need to find a car that is reliable and driven by a pilot with a reasonable amount of talent. Monteiro perhaps? The MF1 is mostly reliable and Monteiro has a fantastic record of getting to the end of races. In his 27 F1 races he has finished an impressive 25, but it is likely that we would need 12 or 13 retirements before he would be in the frame, which is unlikely. The MF1 is just too slow, along with the Super Aguri’s. Scott Speed showed in Australia that the minnows can do it and the Torro Rosso’s are fast enough to get into a position where they could luck into a point if there is a lot of attrition. 1 point Liuzzi to finish in the points @ 8/1 with SportingOdds, SportingBet. lost 1point 1 point Speed to finish in the points @ 12/1 with SportingOdds, SportingBet. lost 1 point The BMW Saubers did very well at Silverstone and are showing good speed and reliability. The last 3 races they have got both cars home and 5 points scoring positions, so they could be the team to luck into a podium if the leading teams suffer in the high attrition. The worries are that both Villeneuve and Heidfeld have poor records here and the introduction of a new technical regulation designed to end the ‘flexi-wing’ controversy could hurt the BMW’s top speeds. Ferrari are the team getting all the flack , but BMW Sauber are also said to have been exploiting this technology to improve straight line speed. They are mixed opinions about how much affect this will have at Montreal but with the track featuring a lot of high speed straights, my guess is that it will have a negative impact, but not a massive one. There are no real high speed corners at Montreal so the advantage of running more wing for extra downforce in the corners without the extra drag penalty on the straight is not there. So BMW Sauber may lose a little straight line speed, but nothing dramatic. Historically Sauber have do well in Canada so they will understand what is needed to get the most from the car. It is a long shot but worth a couple of small stake bets. 1 point Heidfeld to finish on the podium @ 25/1 with BlueSq. lost 1 point 1 point Villeneuve to finish on the podium @ 33/1 with SportingBet, SportingOdds. lost 1 point Ralf Schumacher has enjoyed good success at Montreal with a win and 2 second places, along with 2 pole positions. His fortunes have been mixed in 2006, a podium in Melbourne was an unexpected result but there has been little else, just a couple of 8th places. He has suffered 2 mechanical retirements and was punted off the track on the first lap by Scott Speed at Silverstone. Toyota introduced the new B Spec car in Monaco, but that is a track on which you can learn little about a new car and he didn’t get a chance to show what it would do at Silverstone but 7th on the grid was promising. He is on Bridgestone tyres and the Japanese firm are making confident noises that they will have the best tyre for Montreal. He looks over priced @ 7/4 for a points finish. 4 points R. Schumacher to finish in the top 8 @ 7/4 with Bet365 lost 4 points On the matter of the race outright, Alonso remains a deserved favourite and I am surprised not to see him odds on across the board. Quotes of 5/4 are generous for a driver with 5 wins from 8, but having mulled it over, perhaps Canada is not the best place to be lumping on a short priced favourite. The track is very tough and we have seen plenty of top drivers come unstuck here. The concrete wall at the final chicane has been called ‘The Wall of Champions’ after Hill, Schumacher, Villeneuve all crashed there in the late 19990’s and Button was another victim last year when set for a podium. This track has teeth and it can produce unusual results. Fisichella has always performed very well at Montreal and in the excellent R26 he has the car capable of winning and certainly getting his 5th circuit podium. The problem for him is that his team mate is head and shoulders above him in terms of ability. He has only finished ahead of Alonso 3 times in 27 races and unless Alonso has a retirement or a big problem in qualifying, it is very hard to see a win for Fisi. The podium will not be easy as Schumacher is sure to be strong here as well and Fisichella will have to be at his best to get 3rd place. The question has to be whether 9/4 is a good enough price to justify a bet? On the strength of this season so far, 2 podiums from 8 starts, the answer is no, on his past form on the track, then 9/4 is just about the correct price. It seems the bookies have his number for Montreal and at present there are no attractive opportunities. Honda are spiralling into a state of chaos, lurching from one disappointment to another, but they might just have a much better race in Montreal. The nature of the track does not place the same sort of emphasis on aerodynamic efficiency (of which the Honda has a poor rating) the track is low downforce requiring good power for the straights and stability under very hard braking. The Honda does not lack for power and will not be punished for lack of grip in the high speed corners, because there are none. Button has qualified well here in the past, 1 pole and another front row and he looks worth a modest bet to out qualify the McLaren of Montoya. You can forget the farce that cost him a top 10 on the grid at Silverstone, that was another famous Honda cock up, outside of that he is 6-1 up on Montoya in qualifying and the odds look very wrong to me. A very good test at Monza last week shows that the car is better on tracks that are stop and go in nature, rather than flowing ones with high speed corners. 5 points Button to out qualify Montoya @ 2.20 with Unibet. lost 5 points Next Update will be 30 minutes before qualifying (unless anything exceptional crops up before then). |
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