Canadian GP – Sunday Update. The Ferrari band wagon has been de-railed and the McLaren have now got the best car. Their dominance on a track that has traditionally been a Ferrari stronghold has really put the pressure on the Italian team. Now they respond over the next few races will be very interesting, a real test for the post Schumacher- Brawn management team. I find it hard to split the two McLaren drivers. Alonso was marginally faster in Q2, but he made a mistake in the penultimate corner on his last qualifying lap to lose pole to Hamilton. Fuel loads don’t explain the difference, just a mistake. I suspect that both drivers will be on similar fuel loads, maybe one driver has 2 laps more, but nothing like the 6 laps extra fuel that Hamilton was carrying in Monaco. The two team mates will race each other until it becomes sensible for the team to instruct them to hold position, probably after the final pit stop. Either driver can win this and it is probably a pivotal moment in the fight for the Championship. Raikkonen could be out of it by this evening and which ever of the McLaren drivers wins will have thrown down the gauntlet, especially if it is a convincing win. Alonso will really hope that he can win this race in some style and he will be at his very best. The Hamilton story is so hot right now that people are being to forget that Alonso is pretty good himself. It is not one of his favourite tracks however and Hamilton has every chance to land his first win. I see this as a race to savour, but perhaps not one to be betting on the winner, it’s too close, although Bet24’s offer of 6/4 Alonso nearly tempted me. Sad to see Fisichella making a mess of qualifying as he looks to have a car that would have given him a chance of a podium seeing that the Ferraris are looking pretty ordinary, but in true Fisichella style, he dropped the ball at the vital moment. Heidfeld looks to have gone for a light fuel load and Kubica has just had a nightmare weekend, with little time track time to get a good set up. Mark Webber did a good job to get 6th on the grid, but the big question is will the car last the race distance? The Red Bull (along with sister team Torro Rosso) is the most unreliable car on the grid and traditionally Webber, like Trulli, is a driver who excels in qualifying but can’t keep up the pace in the race. In the 5 races this season he has yet to improve on his qualifying position in a race, and last season he only managed to do so in 6 of the 18 races. He looks worth opposing. Rosberg was just 0.006 seconds slower yesterday (quicker in Q2) and he seems to be finally realising his potential with some eye-catching performances recently. He was the next big thing this time last year, but with a Williams that was pretty hopeless he was soon forgotten. He certainly has more potential than Webber (who incidentally, has made less than complimentary comments about Rosberg) and with the Williams looking to be marginally faster and much more reliable, Rosberg looks a decent bet to beat the Aussie. 5 points Rosberg to beat Webber @ evens with Stan James. lost 5 points Ferrari may well improve in the race as more rubber goes down on the track, but that will be too late to win the race. The battle between the two team mates will be interesting. Raikkonen really needs to get a podium at least, just keep his hopes for a title alive, but the fact remains that he has been beaten by Massa in the last 3 races and it is the Brazilian who looks Ferraris best bet of winning a drivers title. While the two McLaren drivers look so well matched, at Ferrari you have to say that it is Massa who looks the faster driver. Raikkonen has a 1 place grid advantage but Massa looks worth backing to beat him. 3 points Massa to beat Raikkonen @ 2.20 with Bet24.com lost 3 points The Montreal race is famous for a high attrition rate, hard on cars and punishing on driver errors and there will be one or two cars in the lower midfield who could find themselves in the top 8 just by being lucky and reliable. We have seen BMW have problems with their car this weekend, Red Bull are always likely to fail to finish, the Toyota has suspect front suspension, Sato had a gearbox leak in qualifying, Liuzzi’s Torro Rosso is fragile, so we could see a solid car ‘lucking in’ and getting a point. Barrichello fits the bill nicely. The car is slow but reliable, usually better in the race than in qualifying, while Barrichello is experienced and always tries his best. He has finished 10th in the last two races and if he keeps putting the car in that sort of position, he will get lucky sooner or later, and this is a track that offers opportunities for a good ‘staying’ type like Rubens. 2 points Barrichello to finish in the points @ 10/3 with ExtraBet. lost 2 points |
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