Bahrain GP – Preview. It will be a bit strange not having the opening race in Melbourne but at least we won’t have to worry about the weather. Hot and sunny, but there will be a gusty wind which, as we have seen in the past, can effect qualifying runs. Somebody could get lucky if they happen to making a fast run when the wind drops, but hopefully the multi lap system will remove some of that random factor. The Bahrain track may lack atmosphere and history, but it is a good test for car and driver with a good mix of corners and decent straights. With only two seasons form to go on it is hard to draw out too much but both have been won by that seasons’ title winning driver and car, so it looks like a race that should run to form. Sadly, being the first race we have no current form to go on, just the misty picture that was winter testing. The general consensus is that Renault is the benchmark, fast and reliable, Honda not far off Renault, while McLaren has the speed but is suspect mechanically. Ferrari look better than last year but the Bridgestones are a handicap, the car is a little off the pace and has had reliability problems. Toyota should be rock solid but they have struggled to adjust to Bridgestone tyres. Williams have shown flashes of speed but also a fair amount of reliability worries. BMW Sauber look to have respectable package but not an race winner, Red Bull have struggled in testing with overheating problems and have yet to complete a race distance. Midland have not done a lot of testing but the car has at least been reliable, Super Aguri will be there which is a result as the team have sprung out of nothing in less than 5 months. The dark horse is the Scuderia Torro Rosso (otherwise known as the old Minardi team, using a barely disguised 2005 Red Bull with last years Cosworth V10). The ‘restricted’ V10 is very controversial as it is reportedly giving an extra 70bhp over some of the new V8’s, but more importantly, a lot more torque which makes it more driveable and very quick of the line and out of the slower corners. In a recent test on this very track 2 weeks ago Liuzzi set a best time just 0.12 seconds slower than Jenson Buttons’ time in the much fancied Honda. Some of the other teams are making noises that they will be pushing the FIA to further restrict the STR V10 otherwise they might switch to using their own V10’s, which would make the sport a laughing stock. The fact that STR have an advantage in the engine, a proven and successful chassis in the form of last years RB1 and Michelin tyres which look the best of the two suppliers, means they could be a big surprise. Reliability should not be a problem and come the end of a race that should see a few retirements, they could find themselves with a few points, and a lot of angry competitors crying foul. The drivers are the weakest link, but at least Liuzzi has 4 races under his belt and should be the better of the two. Mercedes engine boss Norbert Haug has even predicted that STR can get a podium finish, that may be pushing it a bit far, but it helps to highlight the point. 2 points Liuzzi to finish in the points @ 4/1 with SportingOdds, Corals The attrition rate is hard to asses as well, 3 cars out in 2004 and 6 last season. Interestingly all of these were mechanical retirements, which tells that the modern track is forgiving on driver errors but that the hot and dusty conditions can be a test for the machinery (4 of the 9 retirements were engine failures). With this being the first race of the season and the first for the new V8 engines, there could well be an a fair few retirements. In the last few seasons the cars have bee very reliable, but this will be a real test and any car that is still carry a few gremlins after winter testing could be heading for a DNF classification. Another car that should be still running come the final lap is the BMW Sauber and Nick Heidfeld can continue the teams’ strong record in the opening race of the season. In the last 6 seasons Sauber has had a car in the top seven on 4 occasions. 2 points Heidfeld to finish in the points @ 3/1 with William Hill and Stan James. Montoya could be value his weekend as he is being under rated by almost everyone. Yes, his performance last year was disappointing, but remember it was his first season in a new team, he was up against a very quick and established team mate, he was carrying a painful shoulder injury for most of the season and he was acting under team orders to support Raikkonen just when his fitness was coming back. He was getting pretty close to Raikkonen in the latter stages of the year and coming into his second season with McLaren he really should be quicker this year. In the last 5 races of 2005 Montoya was faster than Raikkonen in China before he had the miss fortune to hit a loose drain cover which put him out of the race. He won in Brazil, had pole in Belgium, pole and won in Italy. Yes, he let himself down in Japan, being to ambitious after starting from the back, but that is Montoya, his weakness is also his strength, always pushing hard. I would make Raikkonen favourite over Montoya for a whole season because the Finn makes fewer mistakes and is just as fast, but on a race to race there shouldn’t be that much between them. However look at the odds and Raikkonen is at least half the price of Montoya, which does not reflect the ability of the two drivers. Unfortunately backing the McLaren s this weekend will be high risk due to mechanical worries, but they should be ok in qualifying and it is worth a small punt on Montoya to out qualify Raikkonen. Montoya was absent here last season and his late stand in, Pedro De La Rosa, was ahead of the Finn in qualifying. In 3004 Montoya was 3rd on the grid in the Williams. Montoya will be much happier with the new multi lap qualifying system and he looks a decent price. 3 points Montoya to out qualify Raikkonen @ 6/4 with Skybet. For the race itself it is hard to get away from Fernando Alonso as the likely winner. The car-driver package looks very strong and the car is very well prepared. He should have the better of Fisichella in the other Renault and while Honda will be a threat there are still question marks about their pace over a race distance. McLaren have those reliability worries while Ferrari may not yet be 100% competitive. He won this last year, won it easily and looks a reasonable price at 11/4. 4 points Alonso to win the race @ 11/4 with Coral, William Hill, Paddy Power and SkyBet.
Saturdays Free practice session should tell us a lot
more and pole position bets can be left until then.
Check back on Friday evening for any news after the
first free practice sessions. Qualifying. This could be a bit confusing with the new format, but after this mornings session there is a little more light on the subject. Much as expected the leading contenders are Renault, Honda and Ferrari, who look a little closer than expected. The big surprise, or maybe not, is the lack of pace from McLaren. The rumour is that they are worried about the engines reliability and are running it at restricted revs to protect it. Of course they may choose to turn up the wick for a few qualifying laps but that is risky and it may not be enough to match the pace setters mentioned above. Sporting Odds are taking on McLaren fans with stand out prices on Raikkonen 13.00 and Montoya 21.00, but I shall not be tempted. It is a very close call between Alonso, Michael Schumacher and Button, it will probably come down to who can do the best killer lap. Schumacher and Alonso have proved they have that ability and Button is no slouch either. Again I will choose Alonso as the car still looks the best to me and I get the feeling that they have a little more up their sleeve than either Honda or Ferrari. However it is not a clear cut matter and the stakes should be kept modest. 2 points Alonso to set fastest qualifying lap @ 3.75 generally available. lost 2 points Just time to put up a group bet for the race with Stan James. 3 points Fisichella to win group B @ 15/8 lost 3 points With Montoya struggling, Barrichello likewise and Massa driving like a loon, the fast and reliable Renault really should win this. Bahrain GP - Sunday update. This should be a cracking race. The Old Master on top of the pile, with 3 who would be king poised behind, ready to pounce. Can the old man reassert his authority? Or will the pretenders to his throne stick the knife in. On the face of it Ferrari look very strong having locked out the front row and with the Renaults strangely under performing in the final qualifying session, it could hardly look better. The fact that Raikkonen enjoyed the customary early season reliability of the McLaren and will start in last position is icing on the cake. But it may not be that easy for the boys from Maranello. Jenson Button is just behind, a 10th off Schumachers’ pole time, with Alonso still a real threat in 4th. The Renault looked all set to get pole position having been fastest in Q1 and Q2, but a mistake on his flying lap meant he had to do a second flying lap when the tyres had gone off. The disappointing grid positions of the Renaults lead to immediate speculation that they are carrying more fuel but the team said that Fisichella had an engine problem when they turned the revs up to the limit for his final run, while Alonso just made a mistake. The good news for Renault is that it does look like they have the fastest car. The Q2 session is the best indicator of the cars pace, low fuel and new tyres (much like old qualifying) and in that session Alonso was quickest by 2 tenths from Montoya, 6 tenths from the other Renault of Fisichella and 7 from the flying Heidfeld. This would suggest that Ferrari had to go a bit lower on fuel than those behind them, especially Montoya and probably Alonso. The fact Massa was so close to Schumachers’ time suggests that he has less fuel than the pole sitter. Ferrari of course deny that they are light on fuel and we will not find out until about lap 7, but my gut feeling is that they are and that the lead my change at the stops, then the race will really start. If Ferrari do not pit first they will be hard to beat. Reliability is always a big issue in the opening race of the season and with the new V8’s and the desert heat and dust, the attrition rate could be especially high. Ferrari have not be flawless in winter testing, McLaren, well we all know about McLaren while Honda and Renault have been running like a Swiss watch. So, it looks like Schumacher has some real threats. Massa may not be one of them. I am not a Massa fan. Granted he is not quite the crazy driver he was a couple of years ago, but he was very ragged in the practice sessions and must be suspect under pressure. This is a new experience for him and you have to think that he may get a rush of blood to head and the old Massa will come out. Picking the winner is far from easy and the bookies generally make Schumacher a very slight favourite over Alonso. Personally I still favour Alonso but as we have already backed him at 11/4 there is no incentive to back him at 2/1 with 3 cars ahead on the grid. The one driver who performed well above general expectations was Heidfeld in the BMW Sauber 4th quickest in Q2 and he was heading for P5 in Q3 but made a mistake that killed his lap. The car is clearly fast, as been reliable in testing and Heidfeld is a very capable driver. It is a concern that 10th position is not a great draw under the new regulations (the cars in 11th downwards can choose what ever fuel load they like, while 10th and above have to start the race with the fuel levels they started qualifying with, which will generally be less than those in 11th and lower). He will need to have a good opening stint to avoid coming out from his stop behind slower traffic on heavy loads, but at least he would have fresh tyres and this is a track that allows for overtaking. We have Heidfeld for points already but the offer of 9/4 after his performances so far looks way to big and it is worth going in for some more. I would have him nearer evens than 9/4 and most firms agree. As the first race of the season can throw up some strange results it is worth taking a long shot punt that chaos reigns and he gets a podium. The car is not that far off in terms of speed and if those ahead break down or trip up, he could find himself with a nice surprise. 4 points Heidfeld to finish in the points @ 9/4 with BlueSq lost 4 points 1 point Heidfeld to finish on the podium @ 33/1 with BlueSq lost 1 point Webber is ahead of Heidfeld on the grid but the Williams is not as quick, the Williams had a lot of reliability issues in testing and Webber is prone to finding trouble. 4 points Heidfeld to beat Webber @ 5/4 with Skybet lost 4 points The Red Bulls looked quite speedy, at least in the hands of Klien. However they have yet to complete a race distance in testing and Coulthard was not having such a good time yesterday. He does not like the circuit and there is a school of thought that he does not like the new over steery characteristics of the new car, perhaps this why he has been put in the shade up by Klien all weekend. He looks opposable with Liuzzi in the STR. This car has looked quick at times and perhaps the team are holding back as they know if they went out and beat too many V8’s the FIA would be on their backs and the V10 would be further restricted. In the race they can be more subtle hoping that attrition and mistakes by other will allow them to head for the top 10. Coulthard will be happy, and a little surprised to finish the race. 4 points Liuzzi to beat Coulthard @ 1.90 with William Hill. lost 4 points |
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