United Stats GP – Preview. Memories of last years USGP always bring on a warm glow in my wallet. It was a farce, but a very profitable one and a reminder that many bookmakers simply do pay attention to ‘peripheral markets’. Even the briefest of glances at any of the F1 websites 24 hours before the start of the ‘race’ would have alerted them that something very strange was going on and that there was a real risk that a large number of teams would pull out. But they just priced up as normal and got filled in. How very stupid, but I am not complaining! Unfortunately lightening rarely strikes twice and I am sure that Michelin have worked very hard over the last 12 months, making sure that their tyres do not suffer the same side wall failures as last year. The fact that tyre changes are allowed this year makes that easier for a start, but you have to wonder that if prevention of a repeat of last year is a priority, will Michelin take their eye off the real goal that is winning? Is there just a chance that they will have over compensated and be slightly less competitive as a result? Time will tell but it is also worth remembering that Michelin have never had a win here and only 2 podium finishes. Since 2000 this race has been farmed by the Schumacher/Ferrari/Bridgestone combination. They know how to win here and for once this season Schumacher may come to a race with a significant advantage, and lets face it he needs it. Alonso/Renault can probably cope with a moderate tyre handicap and still be competitive and if Michelin have no problems he should win again. In Montreal it was Kimi Raikkonen who provided the opposition for 2/3rds of the race and it seems like McLaren are finally realising the potential of the car and that Mercedes have beefed up the power unit to make it the highest revving on the grid. Raikkonen is now a realistic contender for a win. Montoya is almost ‘at home’ at Indianapolis, but his season has been one of under-achievement and the fact that he has 2 podium finishes is very flattering. Of the remaining teams BMW Sauber continue to impress and must fancy their chances of reeling in Honda and finishing the season as the 4th best team. Certainly Honda are falling behind their near rivals and with so much of the teams energy being spent of managerial reshuffles, they are likely to suffer more disappointing results. The fact that they have put the cars designer on long term leave and replaced him with a Honda man with no F1 experience has made many team insiders very worried, and I am not surprised. The fact that Button could not score a point in Montreal puts the cars performance into sharp relief. This was a race were he qualified 8th, made up 2 places at the start but still ended up finishing 9th despite retirements from top 8 certs Villeneuve and Montoya. This is the equivalent of a footballer missing an open net from 5 yards, twice. Compare and contrast with Coulthard in the Red Bull, starts last and makes his way up the leader board, taking advantage of 7 retirements to finish 8th. The Honda at this moment in time looks like a car that will be hoping to beat the BMW’s and Toyotas, but more than likely end up trying to fend of the Red Bulls once again. 1 point sell Button @ 7 on the race index with SportingIndex. won 7 points Toyota have had a similar season to Honda, underachievers both, but at least Toyota never had the big hype at the start of the season and despite getting rid of their chief designer, they are slowly improving the car and can realistically hope for a top 8 finish. Trulli has the ability to over qualify the car and while the race pace is more in line with the Red Bulls, he can grind out a point or two. The Indianapolis Motor Speedway has never been a happy hunting ground for Ralf Schumacher, 4 retirements and 16th place and of course two huge crashes. He says that those do not bother him, but you have to wonder whether there is not a little part of the subconscious which will be telling him to go a bit easy as those walls can hurt. His recent run of results are equally poor reading having 4 retirements from the last 5 races. Trulli on the other hand has always performed very well ay Indy, three times he has finished 4th and another in 5th. Now that he has the car more to his liking we should expect a strong qualifying performance and top 8 finish with his reach. 5 points Trulli to beat Ralf Schumacher @ 5/6 with Hills. won 4.17 points For the race outright, I would like to have a better idea of the tyre situation as it could make Schumacher a decent bet at around 7/2. Or perhaps Kimi would be the value alternative to Alonso on a track that extra grunt from the upgraded Mercedes engine might just make the difference. There is no rush and I suggest we take a patient approach and wait for better bets to arrive rather than rush in now armed with little more than speculation. Next update 30 minutes before qualifying. |
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