U.S.GP – Preview. Knock knock? Whose there? Jenson, Jenson who? That’s F1. There is a new media darling on the scene and he is the real deal. The press coverage of Lewis Hamilton’s first GP win was slightly over the top, he won a race, not found a cure for cancer. Having said that, he did win very easily and made his team mate look very ordinary. It was the worst race I have ever seen from Alonso. His error at the start was bad enough but he missed that corner a further 3 times, no excuse, he was just pushing so hard he out braked himself. He made more mistakes in that one race than in the last two seasons put together. While all this was going on, Hamilton was calmly handling the four safety car periods and just pulling away at each resumption. Since then we have heard Alonso spit the dummy out, claiming that Hamilton gets special treatment from McLaren. Make no mistake, Alonso has been more than rattled, he may not yet be broken, but there are serious cracks appearing in the man who has won two closely contested World Championships. At least he has the best car this season and knows who he has to beat, but Hamilton is at least as fast as the Spaniard, probably faster. The image of Sato in the Super Aguri passing Alonso, while Hamilton cruised home was perhaps the moment when we saw where this years title will end up. The degree to which McLaren had pulled clear of Ferrari was as big a surprise as the paucity of Alonso’s performance. Canada was one of the tracks that Ferrari was expected to be very strong, but in the end they were out qualified by both McLarens and a BMW. The race was obviously a bit of a lottery due to the many accidents, but it was pretty clear from their fastest laps that McLaren were very nearly 0.5 seconds a lap faster and even Heidfeld’s best lap was 0.15 better then either of the red cars. That was not in the script and with the U.S.GP coming straight after Canada, there is little they can do to improve the cars performance. It is suspected that the more severe ‘Flexi floor’ tests have impacted on Ferraris performance especially at Monaco, Montreal and most likely Indianapolis. Ferrari may hope that the Indianapolis Motor Speedway will suit the car like it has the past, but I suspect that Ferraris great record here was down to their leading opponents being on Michelin tyres which were never good here, and once so bad that they couldn’t even race. Now everyone is on Bridgestone tyres, Ferrari has lost that advantage and after six races, the former Michelin teams are getting used to the different characteristics of the Japanese rubber. The tight and twisty in-field sector of this Jekyll and Hyde circuit is comparable to Monaco in terms of the downforce needed to give good grip, but the huge flat-out banked curve and straight requires the lowest possible downforce. The set up is a compromise between the two requirements, but the long wheel base of the Ferrari will not be best suited to the in-field. All in all, it looks like McLaren come here with an excellent chance of winning, the question is which of their drivers will do it? Hamilton will be on a real high and full of confidence after his debut win while Alonso will be frustrated and quite angry by the turn of events that sees him trailing the rookie by 8 points. The fact that Alonso has very poor record on this circuit will not help his mind set. Fisichella was by far the better of the two Renault drivers here last year and Alonso’s poor performance was down to bad driving, not car related. Hamilton has no track experience, but that didn’t hinder him in Canada did it? It strikes me that Hamilton is the logical favourite, but most bookies still make Alonso the favourite. The momentum is with the young Brit and he looks the best bet to win. 5 points Hamilton to win the U.S. GP @ 19/10 with Paddy Power. won 9.50 points Nico Rosberg is definitely improving, as is the reliable Williams. He is now a regular top 10 qualifier and that gives him a great chance of a top 8 finish. He was very unlucky in Montreal, having to pit for fuel just as the first safety car was deployed and receiving a stop/go penalty. He can’t be unlucky for ever and the car-driver combination is certainly deserving of regular points finishes. 3 points Rosberg to finish in the points @ 11/8 with Coral. lost 3 points I shall keep the faith with Trulli for another race despite his poor run of results. Montreal was a disaster for Toyota as they developed a suspension problem that resulted in the drivers having to avoid hitting the kerbs at turn 8 and they gave up 0.2 seconds a lap as a result. They shouldn’t have the same problem at Indianapolis and it has been a good track for them and Trulli in the past. Trulli has an impressive record here with four 4th place finishes and 5th and done with Michelin and Bridgestone tyre and in different cars. Trulli enjoys the whole event and with his great qualifying ability he should be nearer evens, and probably will be come Sunday. 3 points Trulli to finish in the points @ 2/1 with Coral. won 6 points Alex Wurz is having a difficult season and his 3rd place in Canada came at a time when he needed a boost. He has been stuffed by his team mate in qualifying but he has a good car and is a better driver than his results suggest. BetDirect have him in a group with Coulthard, Button and Ralf Schumacher, and the Austrian looks a decent price. Coulthard looks the biggest danger. The Red Bull is a fairly quick car, no better than the Williams of Wurz, but it hopelessly unreliable. Coulthard has only finished two of the six races so far and his poor qualifying skills are well known. Button has a poor car, but at least it does tend to finish races, but he has mentally given up on 2007 and is yet to finish higher than 11th. R. Schumacher has still got a drive, that is quite amazing given his lacklustre performance this year. He has lucked into two 8th places, but he has looked like a man waiting for retirement, and his record on this circuit includes no less than 5 DNF’S. Wurz has ‘won’ this group in three of the six races so far and evens would look a realistic price to me. If he can get the most out of qualifying for a change, he should be in a very good position to win this group. 2 points Wurz to win Group B @ 14/5 with BetterBet. Won 5.6 points |
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