United States GP – Sunday Update. Well it seems I suspicions about Michelin coming here with a safety first policy was correct. As a result the two Ferraris on their Bridgestone tyres are 1st and 2nd on the grid and have left Renault to admit defeat even before the race has started. Mind you, the last time they said that was before the Spanish GP and they finished 1st and 3rd that day, so perhaps Schumacher is not quite home and hosed yet. Certainly his odds of around 1.50 are not going to get me opening the wallet. Certainly Ferrari have a fantastic record at Indy, 4 times from 6 races the have finished 1st and 2nd (ok last year was a non event, but you get the picture) and with Michelin having given a big advantage to Bridgestone, Ferrari will be very hard to beat. Renault hope that they can get one car between the two the red cars, but that would be the best possible outcome unless Ferrari suffer some problems, which they rarely do. A Red-wash perhaps? Worth a small bet. 2 points race dual forecast Schumacher/Massa @ 9/4 with Ladbrokes. won 4.50 points With Schumacher looking to have a comfortable performance advantage he should be able to control the race from the front, drive with something in hand and have the luxury of Massa riding shotgun. Massa is doing a good enough job in the second Ferrari, but it is likely that Alonso will be busting a gut to get another podium and even with a tyre disadvantage he is capable of attacking Massa. This should mean that Massa will have to push very hard and several stages in the race and might just set fastest lap in the process. The Ferrari/Bridgestone is the fastest package and he will need to use it to 100%. 2 points Massa to set fastest lap @ 10/1 with BlueSq The Indianapolis Motor Speedway is not quite the car breaker that Montreal is, but is not far off. Ignoring last years farce, the average retirement here is 40%, or 8.8 runners with 22 in the field. In 4 of the 5 proper races here there have been 8 or more retirements, only 2002 broke the trend. Past form is suggesting less than 16 classified finishers should be strong odds on and even if current form suggests there will be more, less than 16 looks worth a modest bet. 4 points less than 15.5 classified finishers @ 11/10 with SportingOdds, SportingBet. won 4.4 points I have been banging on about the improving BMW’s and the stagnating Honda’s. It seems that Ladbrokes disagree and make Villeneuve a big price to beat Button. Villeneuve is ahead of him on the grid and the BMW has proven to be very fast off the line in recent races, unlike the Honda, who have tended to drop places at the start. In the last 5 races it is 3-2 Villeneuve vs. Button and but for the unfortunate retirement for Villeneuve in the latter stages of the Canadian GP, he would be 4-1, a truer reflection of the cars recent form. 5 points Villeneuve to beat Button @ 11/10 with Ladbrokes. won 5.5 points |
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