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We are unlikely to see the
excitement of this mornings GP2 race (catch the
highlights if you can, its a classic) as Ferrari really
do seem to have a very strong hold on this race. Alonso
is talking a good fight, but when you consider that
Schumacher was 1.2 seconds faster than anyone else in
Q2, his optimism looks misplaced. My guess is that
Schumacher is carrying a lot of fuel and on the harder
Bridgestone compound. This should be easy for him, so
long as he makes no mistakes, which is prone to when the
pressure is on. There are a few decent bets elsewhere on
the grid. 5 points Kubica to beat Webber @ 10/11 with BlueSq lost 5 points I am no great fan of Webber but he has to be given great credit for some how getting his Williams so far up the grid yesterday. The car is dog and on a track that rewards aero efficiency, it has no place in the top 10 Rosbergs 15th yesterday was about par for the car. Webber expects to have a difficult race and I concur wholeheartedly. Not only will the Williams struggle for speed, it is the most unreliable package on the grid. The Aussie has only finished 4 of the 13 races this season and just 1 of the last 7. I expect Kubica to have a difficult race as well, he will be light on fuel and the softer tyres may well suffer greater degradation than the harder compounds on other cars. However, the BMW Sauber is a better car, faster and much more reliable than the Williams. 4 points Coulthard to beat Rosberg @ evens with BlueSq. won 4 points Rosberg has fared slightly better in the reliability stakes compared to his Williams team mate, but not by much (6 retirements from 13 starts, 4 from last 7). He is a great talent, but inexperienced and in a car that is poor. Coulthard on the other hand has bags of experience and in a car that is reliable and consistent. 16th on the grid is not a true reflection of the cars true pace as the very ordinary Klien qualified 11th. Coulthard was compromised on his final Q1 lap by a Super Aguri going off track in front of him, other wise he would be sitting comfortably ahead of Rosberg on the grid. I back the Scot to grind out another solid drive and finish ahead of Rosberg for the 6th race on the trot. 5 points More than 15.5 finishers @ 5/6 with Skybet. lost 5 points We have seen a lot of races with high retirement rates recently, over 8 in 3 of the last 4, but that picture was skewed by the first lap crash at Indianapolis which accounted for 10 cars in one hit and 8 retirements in Hungary at least 4 of which were caused by the slippery conditions. The trend at the start of the season was for more retirements, which was to be expected with a new generation of V8 engines having to last 2 races. The first 3 fly away races averaged 7 retirements. On return to Europe that dropped to 5.8 retirements for the next 5 races. The last 5 have seen the average shoot up to 8 per race, but I believe that to artificially high due to the big number of crashes in Canada, USA and Hungary. The Istanbul Speed Park is not a track that should be conducive to causing accidents, it is a very wide circuit with plenty of run off areas that should allow drivers to recover from any mistakes and bale out of any potential contacts before they happen. There were just 5 DNF’s last year and that sounds about right for this year as well. 4 points Trulli to finish in the points @ 6/4 with Corals lost 4 points Toyota remains confident of a good race despite a poor qualifying. They have chosen a conservative strategy for Trulli, with a lot of fuel and tyres from the harder end of the Bridgestone range. Certainly they have used this plan to good effect in the past and the car has proved to be quick in race conditions. With the likes of Klien, Webber and Kubica ahead of him on the grid, Trulli should have a realistic shot at a top 8 finish from 12th on the grid. |
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