Turkish GP – Preview. That was a nice holiday for the racers, mechanics and truckies, but the eggheads back in the factories will have been working feverishly, trying to ring some more speed out of their machines. Three weeks is a long time in F1 and no doubt, testing ban or not, there will be a lot of modified cars taking to the grid on Sunday. One team who really need to find more speed is Renault but they have been very effectively undermined by their rivals at Ferrari and McLaren. The whole mass damper saga has been a huge distraction for the team and has inevitably had the effect of splitting resources at the factory. Until yesterday, Renault did not know whether their damper system would be deemed legal by the appeal process. The last few weeks has forced them to pursue two different lines of development, one for the car with the mass dampers, and one without. One was always going to be a waste of time, money and human resources, just what the opposition wanted. The result of the appeal was secondary, the damage had been done. I have no doubt that the boffins at Renault will have improved the car during the last 3 weeks, but clearly the other teams should have made more progress as they will have been putting their resources down one clearly defined path. So it looks like the momentum will continue to swing in Ferraris favour. It may be that Alonso’s title hopes at least partly lay in the hands of other drivers beating Schumacher, or Schumacher tripping up. The most likely non Renault threat to Ferrari appears to be McLaren. They are improving and it is hard to think that they will not win a race this season. With Renault having been undermined, a McLaren win is possible if Michelin come up with a better tyre than Bridgestone, but the Ferrari/Bridgestone still looks to be the strongest package. Schumacher has a history of making mistakes when the pressure is on and it certainly is on now. His poor judgement in the latter stages of the Hungarian GP was a case in point. 10 points is still a very handy lead for Alonso and even with a car that may not be as quick as the Ferrari, he is a special talent and he can and will put Schumacher under a great deal of pressure in the next few weeks. The fact that Renault have been stitched up is very unfair and highly odious, but the race for the titles will be fascinating. What to expect this weekend? The Istanbul Speed Park proved to be a great venue on its debut last year. A fast track that rewards both driver and mechanical excellence, so don’t be expecting a repeat of Hungary for starters. That race and that track are of no value as a form guide to this weekend. The last two fast tracks, Silverstone and Germany may not be great guides either as Silverstone was too long ago and Germany was skewed by the sudden banning of Renaults mass dampers throwing them of balance. In many respects we come to this race blind, almost like the start of a new mini season. Perhaps the best way to approach it is look at the teams showing good upward momentum before the summer break. Certainly Ferrari went into the summer break with on the crest of a wave. McLaren showed signs of potential but never quite on the pace of the leaders over the race distance. Renault was on a downswing, 28 points from the last 4 races, no wins and just 2 podiums. Honda will have been boosted by the Hungary win, but will also realise that the weather was largely responsible for that win and a more realistic assessment is a team coming out of a 5 race run that yielded just 8 points. Toyota is more definitely on the up, now regular points scorers despite some bad luck that has served to hide their true potential. BMW appeared to have stalled after the rear wing had to be redesigned and Red Bull were doing a solid job mopping up the crumbs left by attrition on the top teams. It is very likely the winner will come form Michael Schumacher (Massa is not allowed to win unless Schumacher is out of the race), Alonso (Fisichella is not good enough) but is the Renault up to the job? And Raikkonen (De la Rosa is very much the junior partner) who has the talent, but question marks remain over the cars ultimate pace and reliability. I have to side with Schumacher and there is a price that even at odds on, looks way too big. 6 points Michael Schumacher to win the Turkish GP at 4/5 with Totesport lost 6 points I have been banging the drum for a big performance from a Toyota for the last 3 races and have no intention of deserting them now. Trulli is always a live wire outsider in qualifying and the cars pace means that points should be easily obtainable and a podium a big priced possibility. This track offers plenty of overtaking opportunities and as such the top teams can concentrate on the perfect race strategy rather than going as low as they dare in order to secure pole, so there is an opportunity for a lighter fuelled Toyota or Honda to get in the top 3 on the grid. Honda have been qualifying well in the last 2 GP’s and Button was heading for a front row time here last year before the car bottomed out on the tricky Turn 8. With confidence high he should out qualify the very disappointing Fisichella for the third time in a row. 4 points Jenson Button to out qualify Fisichella @ 1.85 with Unibet lost 4 points 1 point e/w Trulli to set fastest qualifying lap @ 66/1 with Hills. lost 2 points Ralf Schumacher seems to have better luck and pace in the actual races and is unlucky not have scored more than in just 2 of the last 3 GP’s. A podium has looked possible as recently as the French GP when a bad pit stop cost him 2 places (finished 4th). A points finish is very likely given a trouble free round. 6 points Ralf Schumacher to finish in the points at evens with BlueSq, Ladbrokes, Corals. won 6 points 1 point Ralf Schumacher to finish on the podium @ 14/1 with Ladbrokes, BlueSq, Centrebet. lost 1 point |
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