Turkish GP – Preview. The Spanish GP wasn’t quite as good a form guide as usual due to the two safety car deployments, but it was clear enough that Ferrari hold a significant advantage over McLaren and BMW. Significant, but not but unassailable and Ferrari know they can not afford to be complacent. The Ferrari is the most aero efficient car that that made all the difference in Spain and it will be very suited to the demands of the Istanbul circuit. The fact that they have won here for the last two years simply underlines the point. It is a demanding track for the drivers and rewards brave hearts who are prepared to attack through the now famous four apex turn eight and those that can handle the slower more technical parts of the circuit. There are plenty of long fast corners which will put tyre wear rates up and that is not good news for McLaren whose car does not look after its tyres as well as Ferrari or BMW. The first three GP's held here have not provided any great races and all have been won by the pole position river, so this could be Barcelona revisited, all over on Saturday. There are overtaking possibilities which might allow for slightly better racing, but these cars are so sensitive to the ‘dirty air’ of the car in front that you really need a significant speed advantage to make a move stick, and there is not a great deal of difference between the top three teams. Saturday looks like the day the winner could be decided. If Ferrari have to follow one or two cars for the first stint, their performance will be compromised and winning would be a lot more difficult. If they do get pole, thank you and good night. A good day to mow the lawn. This has to give some comfort to those chasing Ferrari as qualifying is one part of the game were they are not dominant. They suffer from not getting the front tyres up to temperature for a couple of laps and that hurts most in qualifying. We have had four different pole sitter in the first four races and it would be no great surprise to see another different driver on pole this week. Kovalainen and Heidfeld have cars that can do it and we saw in Barcelona that the much improved Renault could throw a double six. Alonso was four laps lighter than Raikkonen, a strategy that was not going to win him the race, but it sure sold a lot of tickets and probably would have seen him finish fifth but for a very rare engine failure. Pole position now looks like seven way battle and a real head scratcher for us punters. The race is a lot earlier in the season this year and as a result the temperatures will be lower than usual. Air temps are expected to be around 17 degrees on Saturday and Sunday and while the track temp will be higher, it will be the coolest track raced on so far this season. That will not hurt Ferrari on Sunday but is likely to exacerbate their problems of heating the front tyres. Massa has claimed pole here for the last two seasons and he loves the place but this year there are no driver aids and it is a track that rewards the brave. Massa is certainly that but it would not surprise me to see him be just a bit too aggressive somewhere on his qualifying lap. He has not been stellar in Q3 in the last two qualifying sessions and makes little appeal at 2.63. Raikkonen finally got his first pole of the season in Barcelona and is always capable of a great lap. However, he too is also guilty of being a bit ragged in qualifying and is wise enough to realise that you get no points for pole and is happy to make the most of what he has got. If the front tyres are not giving enough grip, he will not push it to the limit and risk falling off the track. Again, he makes little appeal at 2.63. Alonso very nearly pulled off the shock of the season in qualifying at Spain. He was light on fuel, but not by as much as everyone had expected. The car is much faster and now not that far off BMW and McLaren. Alonso is very talented and the team may well decide to be aggressive once again, but this is not Spain. The impact would not be as big and there is no need to sell more tickets this weekend. I think Renault might go a little heavier than in Spain, not looking for pole on a featherweight, but light enough to allow him to get into contention for third or second row, but with enough fuel to allow him to race for a top 6. That would be a good result, even for a much improved car. Heidfeld and Kovalainen have the cars to do the job but they also have team mates who do it better. Hamilton has the ability and the car but his driving has not been quite as impressive as last season. The Championship is still very much alive, but I sense that he is a little anxious that Ferrari are so hard to beat and that BMW have caught up. As a result he is maybe just trying a bit too hard, pushing just beyond the limits. At 7.00 he is much better value than the two Ferraris but I have to favour Kubica, the most consistent qualifier in my eyes. Qualifying form figures of 2/4/1/4 more than suggest that he will be right in there again on Saturday and the fact that BMW are prepared to go into Q3 relatively light on fuel is a real bonus. McLaren and Ferrari have tended to be fairly conservative in this department and as the BMW is now on a par with McLaren and can beat Ferrari in qualifying, a few laps less fuel really could give him the edge without ruining his race strategy. 2 points e/w Kubica to get pole position @ 7/1 with Hills, Ladbrokes, BlueSq. lost 4 points VCBet have come up with an interesting bet for qualifying, 2/1 the field to beat the two Ferraris. I would have thought with qualifying being so competitive so far, with Ferraris well known tyre heating weakness, the cooler weather forecast and the fact that they have only scored two from four so far in 2008, that the odds would be no more than evens. Then again, Ferrari have had pole here for the last two seasons and the car will suit the circuit, maybe it is not a bet to go mad on. 3 points Any Other Driver to qualify on pole @ 2/1 with VCBet. lost 3 points As mentioned above, the Renault has made up a lot of time relative to all the other teams and now looks the 4th best machine out there. There must be some concern about reliability after Alonso’s engine failure, but as a rule, these failures are very rare indeed. Nelson Piquet has not really impressed so far this season but he did manage to qualify in the top ten in Spain and should be able to achieve that once more. He had a reputation as a great qualifier in GP2 and as he gets more experience he should become more confident and start getting results. He has been involved in to many accidents for my liking but this is a track on which he won, got pole and set fastest lap in GP2 and he looks a reasonable price at 10/3 to score his first points of the season. However, he is a better price to win Ladbrokes backmarker group were he is matched with DC, Glock, Nakajima and Barrichello, all drivers he would have to beat to finish in the points anyway. 2 points Piquet to win backmarkers group @ 11/4 with Ladbrokes. lost 2 points For the race outright the odds about the Ferrari drivers are no more than fair at this point, like wise for Hamilton. Kubica looks to be generously priced and worth a small e/w bet. He has been on the payout podium twice from four races so far, the car is getting stronger and with McLaren making some very downbeat comments about having ‘a challenging weekend’ ahead, he could be the biggest threat to Ferrari. I would be amazed if BMW do not win a race this season and probably sooner rather than later. I have Kubica marginally ahead of Hamilton for this race yet the bookies are offering double the odds on the slim line bean Pole. Has to be worth a punt. 1 point e/w Kubica to win the Turkish GP @ 16/1 with Hills. lost 2 points |
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