Spanish GP – Preview. I think we can safely say that the Ferrari comeback is now definitely on. Back to back wins for Schumacher and solid races from Massa have given Ferrari 31 points in the last two races, compared to Renaults 20 and 15 for McLaren. Many had expected a Ferrari win at Imola, a traditional Ferrari stronghold, but that Renault would resume dominance at the Nurburgring. In fact Ferrari only scraped home at Imola but won quite comfortably in Germany. So where do the teams stand relative to each other? It seems pretty clear now that we have only 3 teams competing for race wins. Ferrari, Renault and McLaren, Honda for the time being at least, are not a serious threat. Two Michelin teams and one Bridgestone. When we have 3 teams in close competition, the tyres will play a massive role in deciding who wins. Traditionally we have been able to sort out where one tyre manufacturer would be strong based on venue, track temperatures or wet weather. This year, Bridgestone have built a whole new tyre construction, which is giving good performance in all conditions and they are no longer weak in hot conditions. Michelin have a good tyre, perhaps a little weak in cool conditions, but there is very little between the two. In the wet, well we haven’t seen enough to draw a conclusion, but Michelin are confident they have closed the gap to Bridgestone. (The weather forecast is saying we will have a dry weekend, the threat of a thunderstorm on race day has receded from 30% to 8%). It seems the tyre war will not see massive swings either way, it will come down to compound selection and how the chassis works with the rubber chosen. This goes some way to explaining why teams running the with the same tyre manufacturer have sometimes had widely differing performance. At the Nurburgring, Michelin say they made a mistake in choosing a compound that was too hard for the conditions and it was costing their teams up to 0.5 seconds a lap, which is a lifetime in F1 terms. They have promised not to make the same mistake in Barcelona, and if that figure is close to being correct, Ferrari will be hard pushed to beat either of the top Michelin teams. Renault have a very consistent car, it is easy to set up on any track and in any conditions, Ferrari admit that the Ferrari 248 is difficult to set up and find the sweet spot while McLaren have not managed to find the key to getting 100% from the MP4-21, but they are getting very close. It looks like this weekend we could have a 3 way battle and while you can bank on Alonso being in the mix as usual, Ferrari and McLaren are harder to call. Barcelona is a strange track. Despite the fact that all the teams do a lot of testing there, they are never sure what track conditions they will find, they change by the day, if not even by the hour. This will make hitting the sweet spot that bit harder. That is probably good news for Renault, with a car that is very adaptable, but it will make things difficult for Ferrari and McLaren. The track is a good test venue as it features a great mix of corners and has very long straight, so you need a very good all round package of aerodynamic efficiency and engine power. The track was re-surfaced over the winter and is now much less abrasive, it has a smooth surface and smooth surfaces traditionally favoured Michelin, but now, who knows? Schumacher/Ferrari have a great record at Barcelona, but Alonso has also been good here with two 2nd places, Raikkonen won here last season and Montoya has twice been a runner up. Given the fact that the top 4 in Germany were covered by under 5 seconds, I think we have to expect another very tight contest. My favourite to win is Alonso, the Renault is such a good package that it will always be competitive and Michelin are coming here with a new tyre and are very confident of being much more competitive than in Germany. However, with the likelihood of a very competitive race, best odds of 11/8 are only a fair reflection of his chances and he is running an engine that is 1 race old. Schumacher bids to make it 3 in a row, always a difficult achievement, but more so when we have 3 teams in with a realistic chance. The fact that Michelin should be more competitive than last weekend will be against Ferrari and with a small sweet spot on a changing track, the car might not be just as good as in Germany. Massa is doing a good job, but his job is to support Schumacher and as such his chances of winning are poor. That leaves us with McLaren, the team that won this race last season with Kimi Raikkonen, their first win of the season. It took them a while to get the car going last year and it is doing so again, but there are signs that they will be winning very soon, and their drivers odds are now at a point where they look the value option. Raikkonen was given the new Mercedes engine in Germany and it was a good improvement. He was allowed to give it full welly in qualifying and while only getting 5th on the grid may look poor, it was achieved when carrying 5 more laps of fuel than Schumacher and 6 more than Alonso. On level terms he would easily have been within a 2 or 3 tenths of Schumacher, safely on the 2nd row, if not front row and the McLaren is better car in race conditions than in qualifying. It seems strange to me that McLaren continue to qualify with their cars so heavily fuelled, OK they can run a long first stint and hope to make up places then, but invariably they get stuck behind a slower car and allow the leaders to build up too big a lead. Raikkonen got stuck behind Button for the first 3 laps and the few seconds he lost out there meant that his fuel advantage was wiped out. Had he been able to get straight into the attack from the first lap, he would have been right in the mix for a win. He was faster than Alonso and if the Michelins been a little softer, he would have been faster than Schumacher. The McLaren is ready to win. The worry for Raikkonen is that he is now on the second race for the new Mercedes engine and it was given a good trashing as he pushed hard for a podium. There is now a big question mark over its ability to run at such high revs, reliably. This will not be a problem for Montoya as he is due a new engine for this race and will get his chance to run the upgraded unit. This will be a big advantage for qualifying and on a track that is very difficult to overtake on, grid position is massively important. In the last 9 races here, 8 have been won from pole position, and so, much like Imola, the drivers will be desperate for a good grid position and preferably no worse than the 2nd row if they are to hope for a win or podium. Montoya has suffered along with Raikkonen, from having to qualify with a prohibitive amount of fuel on board but he is 4th in the qualifying averages which shows that he is still very good at putting in a fast one. Given a more competitive level of fuel, both McLaren drivers could be fighting for pole, and even with a little more they should be able to get a second row. In the race the car has proved that it is very competitive and if the team can find a good set up, and Michelin give them a better tyre than in Germany, a win is possible and a podium likely. Raikkonen is the better driver over a season, but on his day Montoya is as good as anyone. With the Colombian having the advantage of a new and upgraded engine he could well get the better result for McLaren, but both are worth backing at good odds. 2 points e/w Montoya to win outright @ 25/1 with Hills, VCbet, Bet 365 and Betfred. lost 4 points 2 points e/w Kimi Raikkonen @ 9/1 with Ladbrokes, Bet365. lost 4 points Having written off Honda for the race, you still have to consider Button in qualifying, and even Barrichello now that he has found how to drive the car for at least 1 lap. He was poor in Germany, but he couldn’t find a set up that was giving him a good grip and he seems to have a problem with the circuit. Back on a track he knows and has done well on he could once again get in the mix on Saturday. His problem may be that Renault, Ferrari (and maybe even McLaren) are likely to go pretty low on fuel to ensure a good grid position, so the fight for pole will be as much about fuel strategies as to who drive the best qualifying lap. At this point, that is a no bet arena, but that might change in the pre qualifying update, 30 minutes before Saturdays session. Adding: 5 points Montoya to beat Button @ 10/11 with Hills. lost 5 points The McLaren is on the up while the Honda is struggling to make any progress. It has shown a tendency to be inconsistent in race conditions, quite the opposite of the McLaren. |
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