Spanish GP – Preview. This race will possibly be the most important one of the season and it will probably be the most boring. This is the race were all the teams except Super Aguri and Torro Rosso will bring heavily revised cars and it marks the start of the real meat of the season. There is only so much the teams can do to their cars in the fly away races but now all the new bits and pieces are added and some teams will have improved more than others. Come Sunday afternoon we should know which teams and drivers are going to be the ones to follow in the coming weeks if not months. We will learn a lot this weekend but this is a ‘race’ only for the hardcore F1 fan because it is always so deadly dull. The track is an excellent test of F1 cars, but it does not allow good racing and basically the race is largely over at the end of qualifying. Pole position driver has won this race for the last seven years and in ten of the last eleven, that says something about the lack of drama that we can expect. All the team (except Super Aguri) tested on the track last week, a test that was used as much of the 2009 spec cars as this years. Slick tyres were used for some of the test and the track was rain affected on the final day, so the message is not t o read too much into the times set in testing. The two big factors required for success at Barcelona are aero efficiency and good tyre wear. The reason why the track is so popular for testing is that it rewards good aerodynamics, if your works well here, you have a good car and means you can be competitive on most circuits. The track also rewards good mechanical grip from the tyres and the cars that can look after their tyres over the longer race stints will do well. In qualifying, the playing field will be more level as all the drivers can stick on a new set of tyres for their crucial runs, but there will be no hiding place in the race. Anyone whose car is eating its rears will be seriously handicapped. So far this season it is Ferrari and BMW who have been very strong in this regard and there is no reason to suspect that this will change. McLaren have been losing out a little in this area but they were impressive here in winter testing and with all their resources they really should be able to fight back, but they are now playing catch up. Ferrari is still very much the team to beat and this looks like a great opportunity for them to get in front. Massa was fantastic here last year and now that he has that crucial confidence boosting win under his belt, he will be really up for this race. Raikkonen is the faster driver over a season, but he does have his off weekends (like Bahrain) well he just can’t touch his team mate. That was the case here last season when Massa scored pole, fastest lap and race win while Raikkonen was slower in all but Free 1 before retiring from the race on the 10th lap. The Finn has only ever had one good race in Spain when getting pole and winning back in 2005 and that is his only podium finish to date. I do rate him as the better qualifier of the Ferrari pairing and with that part of the game so important on this track, Massa is my favourite to win the race. 4 points Massa to win the Spanish GP @ 5/2 with Hills. 2nd - lost 4 points The big question after Bahrain was ‘have BMW now overtaken McLaren as the biggest threat to Ferrari?’ Looking at the Constructors table the answer would appear to be yes as the German team are top of the heap and two points clear of McLaren. The reality may be that BMW have been flattered by both Ferrari and McLaren making some major cock ups, but there is no doubt that BMW are now within touching distance of the top team and if they can continue to develop the car at the rate they have done since it was launched, then it is only a matter of time before they start winning. The car itself has good aero performance, looks after its tyres and is particularly good over a qualifying lap (albeit with a need to drop a few laps of fuel to match Ferrari). That is a very potent mix for Barcelona and it will be a surprise if Kubica and Heidfeld are not fighting for at least one podium finish and with qualifying so crucial, maybe a win is not out of the question. The team are making very positive noises about their potential for this race and as they have a driver on the podium of the three races so far, it is certainly worth having an e/w punt on both Kubica and Heidfeld. 1 point e/w Kubica to win the Spanish GP @ 12/1 with Ladbrokes, Hills, Paddy Power, BlueSq. 4th - lost 2 points 1 point e/w Heidfeld to win Spanish GP @ 16/1 with Boylesports. lost 2 points You could actually do better on Betfair (27/1 Heidfeld win 3.3/1 to place, 16/1 Kubica win 2.1/1 to place) but the liquidity is not strong enough for me to tip it here. If you can get on, I would try and skew the bets with maybe 1 point win, 2 to place. Trying to predict who has made the most progress with their new developments is very difficult. The test times are not a good guide and with so many different programs running comparisons will have to wait until Friday at the earliest. Reading all the quotes from the drivers and managers is less than helpful as they all say the same thing, ‘very happy with the teams progress, step forward blah blah blah’. Bring back Jacques Villeneuve! At least he would say it was shit if it was. Renault are making some very bold claims about were they expect to be and that is matching BMW. Well that would be something of a surprise but they will introduce a new damper system which most other teams have been running for some time and is expected to give around 0.3 – 0.5 seconds a lap, which is a good step forward (aghhh…I said it!) in itself, plus various aero mods, including a Red Bull style engine cover. Renault do look like the team most like to improve relative to its nearest rivals but they were getting on for two seconds a lap of the fastest cars in Bahrain and I think Mr. Briatorie gave it away by saying he would be very happy with a podium. Of course he would because he knows it is very unlikely. Their real target will be to overhaul Toyota and Williams and keep Red Bull and Honda behind. Williams may struggle to match the pace of development from the big manufacturer teams such as Renault, Honda and Toyota and they form in the first three races was patchy. I fear that they are going to find the going even tougher now. Toyota has been something of a surprise in the opening races, looking the fourth best team to me. Glock has yet to break his duck but Trulli is doing a good job, qualifying in the top ten and actually racing as well as he ever has. They also have a new damper development amongst other changes and while Renault should have made up ground I suspect that Toyota will still be a fraction faster. Of course, Alonso is in a different league to Trulli and that could swing it for Renault. However with Barcelona being so much of a ‘car track’ it could be that Alonso will be seen to better effect in the three races following this. Trulli looks a decent price to win without the big three teams (Ladbrokes, Coral and Skybet operate these markets but Ladbrokes have mis-labelled their book ‘w/o Ferrari/ McLaren). He has won this in the last two races and it is worth chancing that Renaults progress is not enough to oust Toyota as best of the rest. 2 points Trulli to win W/O the big three @ 7/2 with Coral, Ladbrokes. lost 2 points Honda is another team that are improving fast albeit from a very low base. They will be sporting some very ridiculous looking ‘dumbo wings’ on the cars nose, almost as revolting as the teams lime green trousers. Also in evidence will be some natty wheel trims with ‘earthdream’ logos. Buttons luck has to change soon and before being taken out by Coulthard in Bahrain the car was flying. Certainly now a contender for points but may lose out if Renault really have made up a chunk of time. Probably better to back him in a group were he could still win without a top eight finish and at a better price. 2 points Button to win Backmarkers group @ 7/2 with Ladbrokes. won 7 points At the back of the field it looks like Force India are now in a good position to move ahead of Torro Rosso as the Italian team will not have their new car until Monaco or Canada. Force India were very happy with progress made at the test and while a points finish would require a lot of good luck, Fisichella has scored back to back 12th places and he is good on this track. Sadly I can find nowhere to back him! Super Aguri have hit a financial brick wall, could not even test last week and while they may take part this weekend, they early are just making up the numbers. |
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