San Marino GP – Preview. The Imola circuit has similarities to Melbourne in the sense that both are ‘stop – start’ tracks that put a premium on braking and acceleration out of the many corners and chicanes. When Melbourne was the season opener, many teams would make Imola the very last test before heading off to Melbourne. So a car that performed well at Imola, should, in theory, go well in Melbourne and visa versa. Of course nothing is that simple. Imola has more gradients and works the engine harder and it is famous for the big kerbs that a driver has to ride over in order to set a killer lap time. The fact that there has been a 3 week break means the teams have been testing frantically and most cars will come here with significant modifications since we last saw them in Australia. So, we can use the Melbourne form, but only when combined with recent testing news and developments. After the first three races we should have a much clearer picture of which way F1 2006 is going, but so far there are as many questions as answers, with the exception of Renault. The reigning champs have done the same job as in 2005, winning the first 3 races and making Alonso the odds on favourite to win back to back titles. The only question marks over Renault is, are they sandbagging? Is there something in reserve? It has all looked a bit easy to be honest. Have the others got any hope of turning the tide in San Marino? Yes, but only if they can operate without any flaws. The opening race suggested that we were heading for a very open championship with at least 4 teams ready to win, but only Renault have fulfilled their potential. Ferrari have suffered with engine and tyre selection problems. McLaren have shown good speed on occasions but also the odd mechanical errors and driver wobbles that characterised 2005. Honda (or should I say Jenson Button as Barrichello is doing a good job of making Sato look good) have shown the odd flash of great pace, but cannot seem to carry it the through the whole weekend. Toyota has only started to perform and just as they seem to have solved the early race problems, they sack their Chief Designer. BMW Sauber have been the surprise package, but have an engine that is very fragile. Williams looked like potential race winners after the shearing pace shown by Rosberg in Bahrain, but since then they have suffered mechanical failures and drivers shunts, a false dawn born out of hitting on a great Bridgestone compound in race 1 perhaps? For all of Renaults rivals, the end of the first term school report must read, ‘shows some promise, but can do better’. Renault are not going to beat themselves, so the opposition have to start performing at 100% or the titles will be staying put for another season. Who, if anyone can prevent win number 4 for Renault? The most obvious has to be Michael Schumacher and Ferrari. Imola is a Ferrari stronghold and in recent years they have always raised their game on home soil. Schumachers record is excellent, even by his high standards. In the last 10 years he has five wins, four 2nd places, 3 pole positions and set fastest lap 5 times. Last season, in the poor F2005 on the useless Bridgestone tyres, he came from 14th on the grid to chase home Alonso, finishing just 0.2 seconds behind. The only reason he didn’t win was that Imola is so very difficult to over take on and Alonso was never going to give him a chance. This years Ferrari and this years Bridgestones, are much more competitive than in 2005. The engine problem has meant the revs have had to be turned down to prevent the failures seen in Malaysia. This is said to be cutting the power output by around 5%. They did lose another engine in last weeks Barcelona test, but that was an ‘old’ engine spec which was not due to be used any more. The team are confident that they are top of the problem in the piston heads which was causing the failures and will be running the new engines at full power this weekend.
On top of this they were struggling to make best use
of the Bridgestone tyres while others have thrived.
Again they are confident that they have found the
solutions to those problems and along with various
aerodynamic modifications and new rear suspension
layout, Ferrari say they are expecting to be in a
position to not just to be competitive, but to win
this race. It is not quite a make or break race for
Ferrari, but if they are not competitive here, their
title aspirations could be in tatters and I expect a
big weekend for the red cars. Renault are also
expecting a Red Revival, so the early 6/1 has long
been snapped up. won 13.5 points McLaren showed great form at Melbourne, in terms of race pace, with Raikkonen setting 5 of the 6 fastest laps, but he was never in a position to be putting any pressure on Alonso, so we have to assume that Alonso was not minded to give his engine any unnecessary work. (The fact that Alonso will be using the Melbourne unit is a negative as not only will it be getting close to its ‘expiry date’ but other teams will be introducing upgraded power units which will move them closer, or past, the output from the Renault engine.) Raikkonen is stuck with his old engine, which is not ideal, but to give Mercedes some credit, they have not lost any ‘in action’ so far this season. Raikkonen has never really gone well at Imola with the exception of his 2nd in 2003 and McLaren have struggled to get 2 cars home in this race in recent years. I just get the felling that this is not going to be Raikkonens week and perhaps the fresh engine in Montoya’s car will give him the edge over the Finn. The ‘Raikkonen to drive for Ferrari in 2007’ rumour mill will be in overdrive this weekend and that can only be a distraction for the team and driver. Honda’s decision to order Button not to cross the line in Melbourne looked a very wise move to me despite having to pass up 3 points. It shows that Honda are fully committed to wining a race in 2006 and they were quite correct in ensuring that Button comes to Imola (a very strong track for BAR-Honda in the past) with not only a fresh engine, but an upgraded spec engine. Button has finished on the podium at Imola for the last 2 seasons and it was the scene of his first ever pole position in 2004. He qualified 3rd in 2005 and his qualifying record in 2006 so far is the best in the field (3rd, 2nd and pole in that order). He is proving that he is a qualifying specialist and the car should go well here. The big kerbs are the key to setting a quick lap at Imola, if you can set the car up in a way that you can clip the kerbs without throwing the car off line, you have the key to pole position. Button and Honda have done it in the past and he looks to be a very serious contender for his second pole of the season. The fact that he got his first pole of the 2006 season at the ‘Imolaesque’ Melbourne circuit only adds to the strength of the argument. 2 points e/w Button to set fastest qualifying lap at 7/1 with Boylesports. won 0.8 points Renault remain firm favourites for the race, but the bookies look to have the odds about right for both drivers and it is hard to justify a bet on Alonso at 7/4. He has an old engine and the opposition looks stronger after the 3 week test and development period. Fisichella will be using a new ‘B’ spec V8 engine but this may not be the big advantage it looks at first glance. It was due to introduced in 2 weeks time and the team are using the fact that Fisichella is able to use a new engine as a battlefield test and they will not be running it at full power, in the race at least. It should give him a few 10ths in qualifying but it should make little difference in the race itself. Toyota appear to have made a real step forward and must be considered as lively outsiders, but they have traditionally struggled with the kerbs at Imola and are best watched at this stage. Within the team the driver dynamics have changed since last season. In 2005 Trulli simply thrashed Ralf Schumacher in qualifying and was 6-1 up in race head to heads in the early part of the season. So far in 2006, it is Ralf who is 3-0 up in qualifying and race H2H’s. Imola was the scene of his 1st GP win and he enjoys the circuit. Trulli on the other hand, is not a fan of the track and may not enjoy the extra attention of being a ‘home driver’. Trulli is well known as a driver who mentally gives up when things are not easy, and if he struggles with the kerbs in the Toyota, I expect him to have a lacklustre weekend. 5 points Ralf Schumacher to beat Trulli @ 1.80 with Hills won 4 points BMW are worried about running two old engines and rightly so, getting both cars home would be a result. Williams have had reliability problems since an exciting Bahrain GP and while they say they have found fixes, I would like to see it to believe it. The weather looks set to be partly cloudy for the whole weekend but the forecast track temperatures are looking much better than in Melbourne and we should have conditions that should not cause to many headaches for the tyre manufactures. There may be more bets on Thursday when there are few more prices available, so please check back. |
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