Monaco GP – Sunday Update. Firstly, a weather update. The rain came early yesterday but stopped and managed to largely miss the qualifying session, with the result that we have a ‘normal’ looking grid. A lot of forecasts are saying up to an 80% chance of rain today at Monaco, but I would ignore that advice. It is dry and sunny now (9.30 local time) and the band of rain that was expected to pass through this morning/lunchtime has turned north and should completely miss the principality. There is a small chance of a rogue shower, but it is much more likely to be a dry race, which is a bit of a shame. Alonso shaded Hamilton for pole, but as usual the two look very closely matched. Certainly McLaren have looked the class of the field and Massa did a great lap just to get 3rd on the grid. As usual we have the fuel guessing game. If Hamilton is carrying more fuel, he is in a strong position, any lighter and the race is Alonso’s to lose. Perhaps there was a hint in a post qualifying interview when Hamilton said - "I was three-tenths up on my previous best and I was held up by Webber. I don't know if he saw me. I lost half a second behind him but I managed to pull it back to within a tenth but after that the tyres were gone. The car felt great. It was exactly the same time I did on heavy fuel. So we did a good job and I am happy with that.” Well, he wouldn’t be happy if he only matched his heavy fuel runs if he was on a lighter load would he?. So far this season Hamilton has carried more fuel into the race than Alonso in 3 of the 4 races, in Bahrain were Alonso was really struggling with the cars balance and was never going to win. Hamilton looked more likely to do the job for the team than the Spaniard and was given the more aggressive strategy. Obviously a lighter fuel load will help get pole in a close battle between team mates, but if we get a clear run to the first stops a driver stopping a couple of laps later may have an advantage. There is a 5 or 6 lap period were the cars come in for stops and the first in will come out behind cars still to make their stops. This means running at the slower cars pace for maybe 2 or 3 laps, while the heavier car should only be ‘in traffic’ for 1 or 2 laps. There is a chance for 1st and second on the grid to flip flop, if the fuel levels have the pole man lighter. Hamilton needs to be at least 2 laps more fuel heavier if he is to have a chance, and I believe he has that chance. We have a small bet on him at 4/1, and that will have to do now that best odds are 9/4. The big loser yesterday was Kimi Raikkonen, making a blunder and hitting the wall. Not very impressive at all, given that the other 21 drivers managed to avoid crashing. However, he is still in the second quickest car and was impressively fast on Thursday and Saturday morning. Schumacher was in a similar position last year, starting from the back and finishing a great 5th. Kimi will start 16th and even at Monaco, a good car with a good driver should be looking to finish in the points, maybe even top 6. The BMW Saubers are not looking so good this weekend, out qualified by a Renault, Red Bull and Williams. That 3rd best car tag is not true on this twisty track. They may well have a decent load of fuel on board, but they were forced down that path as they had no chance of finding the pace to find the 3rd row. It may be that this long wheelbase car is not suited to Monaco, in the same way that Ferrari are not suited, the only longer car on the grid. 4 points Raikkonen to beat Kubica @ evens with SportingBet. lost 4 points On a similar theme Rosberg looks a decent price to beat Heidfeld. Two places ahead on the grid, Rosberg is very confident of a good result. The Williams has been a bit in and out in terms of form, but they have greatly improved reliability and the car, as Williams’ so often do at Monaco, suit the track. 3 points Rosberg to beat Heidfeld @ evens with Ladbrokes. lost 3 points For a longer priced bet, Fisichella might just good enough to get a podium today. He is good on the track and set almost the same time as Massa in Q2 yesterday. Massa pulled out something special, again, in Q3, but with the Ferrari not totally comfortable on this track he may be under pressure from the Renault, traditionally very good at Monaco. The car is reliable and improving with a new front wing being rushed in yesterday. 2 points Fisichella to finish on the podium @ 5/1 with BetDirect lost 2 points |
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