Monaco Qualifying. The rain arrived a little early and this morning practice was remarkable for the fact that no one crashed despite lots of thrills and spills, and that the fastest man was Sutil. Yes, that’s right Sutil, in a Spyker. A classic wet weather result. If the rain stays and it looks like it will be on and off for the rest of the afternoon, then finding the winner in qualifying is a pin sticking job. I took the view that once the rain came, it was time to pick off the silly prices on Betfair for the ‘no hopers’, because in the wet, there are no no-hopers. It will be a lottery. Of the favourites, Raikkonen was impressive, Massa not, while the two McLarens seemed to be making more mistakes. The bookies appear to have reacted to this mornings session by making Alonso favourite, which I find quite strange as he was struggling a bit in the wet and then we have the random factor of the weather. He is as low as 6/5, which is just a crazy low price. It was hard to give any specific bets for situations like this, you could choose to buy the field at 4.5 on SportingIndexs’ qualifying market and hope that one of the 14 cars in that category gets into the top 3. Or find the best prices and have an e/w punt on the 100/1+ shots, or lay the favourites. There can only be on man on pole and Alonso looks bad value to me, even in the dry. I cannot quite fathom how he is so strong a favourite for qualifying. I suggest laying him on Betfair at around the 3.2 mark. 4 point lay Alonso pole position @ 3.2 with Betfair. lost 8.8 points |
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Betting Previews
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