Monaco GP – Preview. Free practice takes place on Thursday in Monaco, not the usual Friday, hence the early post. The big story for this weekend is the weather forecast. I have been tracking the forecasts since last Saturday and they remain very confident that we will have rain at some point this weekend. Thursday should be dry but Saturday and Sunday do not look good. The problem is that some forecasts are saying the Saturday will be the wettest day, while others say Sunday and some say both! What happens to be the case, rain on either, or both days is likely to turn the race into a bit of a lottery. The last rain affected GP in Monaco was in 1997 when it was won by Michael Schumacher with Barrichello a surprise 2nd in the Stewart Ford, and Monaco expert Irvine 3rd in the other Ferrari. Panis was 4th in a Prost and Mika Salo a remarkable 5th in a Tyrrell. Only 10 cars were classified when the race was stopped after 2 hours. The previous year was also a wet race and that saw Panis winning at 300/1 from 33/1 Coulthard and 80/1 Herbert 3rd. Salo was again 5th in the Tyrrell. This time just 7 cars were classified when the race was stopped after 2 hours. 1996 are 1997 are almost ancient history, but the message is clear, expect carnage in terms of retirements and as a result a few big surprises are very possible. Track specialists and drivers that are good in very low grip conditions will be at an advantage, but even they can be the unlucky victims of other peoples accidents. Monaco is of course, a totally unique circuit and even in dry conditions it is perhaps the hardest test for a driver. The speeds are the ‘slowest’ of the season, but the margin for error is virtually zero, and in the wet…..well it must almost impossible to avoid serious trouble. If the rain comes in time for qualifying, we are sure to have a mixed up grid, with the very limited time in each session combined with the likely hood that there will be yellow and red flags deployed as cars crash. If the rain comes on both days we could may see a mixed up grip compounded by the chaos of a rain affect race. All things considered, making any strong predictions for this weekend is virtually impossible, which is a shame as Monaco has been a happy hunting ground in the past and I was lining up one or two strong bets. For a dry race, Hamilton would be the call. His record here in the lower Formula is perfect, 100% pole and race wins. McLaren have a great tradition of success at Monaco while Ferrari have not done well at all recently, no wins since 2000 and not even a podium in the last two seasons. This year, with everyone on Bridgestones, they should have a better chance but this long wheelbase design of the F2007 will not be best suited to the very slow, twisty nature of Monaco. McLaren should have the car to win. Alonso has done well at Monaco as well, wining last season, but he was beaten by team mate Trulli back in 2004, which suggests that he is not an out and out track expert, and let’s make no mistake, Hamilton is in a different league to Trulli. Of course, it looks like a dry weekend is not going to happen and we can only speculate as to how good young Hamilton will be in wet conditions. Personally, I expect him to be very good. The way he manoeuvres his car around corners is very smooth, with no great early or late turn in. He makes virtually no mistakes and has that 6th sense of were to put the car to best effect that only the naturally gifted can do without stuffing it in the wall to find the limits. Wet or dry he looks a very strong contender for this race. The problem is that he could be perfect all weekend and just be unlucky in qualifying or get punted of by a lesser mortal in the race. I propose we back him now, but the stakes should be kept small due to the lottery factor that is the rain. 2 points Lewis Hamilton to win @ 4/1 with VCBet, BetDirect, ExtraBet. lost 2 points (2nd) If chaos is likely then there is often value to be had having a few punts on big priced outsiders, in the hope of finding another Panis like result. A proven wet weather winner, an experienced track expert but at a big price, it has to be Barrichello. The Brazilian has been runner up three times and 3rd once. His best drive was in the wet back in ’97 in the Stewart, coming from 10th on the grid to land 2nd place. His debut race win was in the wet in Germany in 2000 and he knows that a wet race will give him a chance. The car is a dog of course, but they have been able to bring some modifications forward for this race which Barrichello says will improve rear end stability under braking, something that is very important on this track. Monaco is more about the driver than the car in any case, and in the wet, well rain is a great leveller especially as everyone is on the same rubber. 0.5 point e/w Rubens Barrichello to win @ 200/1 generally available. lost 1 point The last wet F1 race was won by Button, the 2006 Hungarian GP, also a high downforce, slow, twisty track. Button came from 14th on the grid to win and that is the kind of performance that has yielded big results here in the last two wet races. Button has a very smooth driving style, very well suited to slippy, low grip conditions. Worth another small e/w punt. 0.5 point e/w Jenson Button to win @ 200/1 with Stan James, Totesport, Paddy Power lost 1 point The Red Bull of Coulthard has been much tipped up for this race as a result of his good track record and the fact that the car is now beginning to show some pace. I was thinking of a plunge myself until looking at just unreliable the car is. Just 3 cars home from 8 starts this year (four of those retirements mechanical failures) shows that it is a high risk bet just for the car to finish, never mind on the podium. He is as low as 33/1, which is terrible value and the best odds of 100/1 are only reasonable. Remember that for every podium finish in Monaco (4), DC has had more retirements (5). Team mate Webber would be interesting in a dry race. He has qualified 3rd here twice, has one podium to his name and heading for another last year before the Williams broke again. However, I am not convinced that he would get the car home in a wet race and with the unreliability of the Red Bull, he has to be passed over. Fisichella is a wet race winner and has some good Monaco form. The car is improving and while 100/1 is not a bad price, I would want more than that about a driver that does tend to under perform at times. Nick Heidfeld raced well in the wet in Hungary last year, is in a very good car this year, was 2nd here in 2005 and has a very respectable Monaco record under his belt, 5 top 8 finishes in total from 7 starts. In the dry 33/1 would be just short of value, but in the wet, with all the unpredictability, it looks worth risking a little cash. 0.5 point e/w Nick Heidfeld outright @ 33/1 with William Hill. lost 1 point For a final throw of the dart of good fortune, why not a little tickle on Anthony Davidson to match Sato’s point scoring effort in Spain and maybe go one better and fluke a podium. The car is solid he has f1 experience on the track from his days as a Friday tester and he knows how to get the car home. 0.5 point Davidson to finish on the Podium @ 80/1 with BetFred lost 1 point 2 points Davidson to finish in the points @ 13/2 with SportingBet. lost 2 points Friday Update: The weather forecasts are now starting to move away from predicting wet weather. There will be some rain in the region over the weekend but it now looks like if it will affect the action, it is Saturdays qualifying that is most likely to be hit. If so they will will still a have lottery of a race, but there is no sufficient confidence in the weather forecasts to be recommending any further bets right now. As usual, there will be an update posted around 30 minutes before qualifying....unless of course I get any firm news of the weather before then! |
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