Malaysian GP – Saturday Update. The Raikkonen engine change story was a red herring but as it turns out, Massa has ended up on pole and the even money favourite (2.00 with ExtraBet). The bookies are assuming that while Kimi has not changed his engine, he is ‘carrying an injury’ and will not be running at full revs. This could be true as there is no denying he had a problem with the engine in Melbourne, but I feel if it was so bad the team are having to turn down the power to improve reliability, then surely they would just have changed it and let him charge form the midfield? Perhaps not, but whatever happens, Alonso will be pushing Ferrari as hard as possible, in order to try and induce any weakness into a full blown retirement. It looks worthwhile having a small bet on Raikkonen not to be a classified finisher. 2 points Raikkonen not to be classified @ 7/2 with Stan James. lost 2 points One driver who I have been looking to oppose this weekend is Mark Webber. The Red Bull is strictly midfield, but he has a great talent of qualifying any car above its station. The result is that he appears to struggle in the race, dropping back through the field, but the bookies tend to price on grid position rather than the likely race pace. In Melbourne, Webber qualified 7th but finished 13th. He was hampered by a fuel flap problem which resulted in a long first pitstop, but he was always going to find it hard to stay in the points. It often pays to have a look at a drivers record on the track as you sometimes find something interesting. For Webber, Sepang is a bogey track. He has never finished the race in 5 attempts. The fact that team mate Coulthard had to change an engine this morning highlights that the RB3 is not totally reliable and of course Webber had a problem in Fridays free practice. The Renault boys behind him are struggling, certainly in qualifying, but in Australia they had a quicker race car and I suspect the same will be true here. Kovalainen had a nightmare in Melbourne, but helped by the extensive test here last week, he seems to have found some confidence and out qualifying his team mate this morning will have helped him even more. 3 points Kovalainen to beat Webber @ 5/6 with BetDirect. won 2.50 points BMW Sauber continue to be best of the rest (with Williams closer) and Heidfeld out qualified Kubica yet again (now7-1 H2H). However, Kubica looked to have the measure of Heidfeld today, faster in Q1 and Q2, but the team misjudged the timing of their last run and he ran out of time. I feel that today he was in line to get 5th. Instead he finds Rosberg between him and his team mate, but his is the newest engine and he is generally quicker in race trim than in qualifying. Making mistakes his perhaps Kubicas biggest weakness, but this is a nice big wide track with lots of room for error, so it should suit him. Certainly, the price looks very big (Stan James go just 2.00) 4 points Kubica to beat Heidfeld @ 2.40 with Bet24. lost 4 points Hondas’ nightmare just gets worse. I thought that this track would be a little kinder to them, but obviously not. Both drivers have just given up on the car in its current form, it is a complete pig. Button only had two cars behind him come the end of the Australian GP (drive-through penalty didn’t help) but Albert Park is a track that allows slower cars to hold their position as over taking is very hard. Sepang offers fewer hiding places for a bad car and the Honda is bad. I actually thought Button did well to qualify 15th, but he was helped by Wurz and Barrichello both being hit by mechanical problems. He will be a sitting duck to any faster car starting behind him. Wurz and Coulthard should have good chances, but DC has to start on the back row after an engine change penalty. Wurz has a car that looks at least 0.5 seconds quicker than the Honda and so long as he can get past Davidson and the Torro Rosso pair between him and Button, he must a good change of finishing ahead. 5 points Wurz to beat Button @ 17/20 with SportingBet. won 4.25 points 3 points Coulthard to beat Button @ 5/6 with BlueSq. lost 3 points |
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