Malaysian GP – Preview. The post mortems have been carried out after the Australian GP, and some teams have already buried the dead. As usual after the first race of the season, there are winners, losers and the not so sure. The winners? Well Ferrari obviously. The car was considerably faster than expected. Everyone knew it was going to the best, but Raikkonens’ best time was 1.5 seconds faster than his nearest challenger, Alonso. McLaren also came out smiling. Hamilton delivered his promise in style, Alonso was as slick as ever and the car, while off the pace of Ferrari, didn’t breakdown, which is very good news for their title hopes. BMW Sauber slowed that their pace in winter testing was real, but realistically the car is still only 3rd quickest. Super Aguri, simply by using last years Honda, have leapt from tail-end Charlies to mid-field respectability. Question marks hang over Williams who looked good in free practice, but failed to find speed over a qualifying lap. They blame a problem getting the tyres to heat up quickly enough in qualifying and are working on a solution. Toyota had two top 10 finishers, a result that looked out of the question during winter testing. It was no fluke result as they both qualified in the top 10, but I have to wonder if they were good, or was the opposition very poor? The ‘losers’ category is headed by Honda. Again, this was no surprise, but perhaps the fact that Super Aguri out qualified them was the harshest of spotlights as to how bad this new car is. Red Bull warned that the RB3 is at least a month behind in development and despite a good qualifying effort from Webber, so it proved as they struggled in the race. Renault, despite getting Fisichella home in 5th, must be considered losers. This is not the dominant start we have become accustomed to and it has to be said that Kovalainen was terrible. Torro Rosso and Spyker were at Melbourne but I don’t think anyone noticed. Last week all the teams except Spyker had a 3 day test at Sepang, scene of this weekends Malaysian GP. It is pretty pointless trying to read much into the times set as different teams were working on different programs, and indeed the test was overshadowed by a new technical row that will be known as the Flexi Floors. Much like last season saw Ferrari and BMW coming under scrutiny for flexible rear wings, the same two teams have now been citied for having the floors of their cars moving excessively when moving at speed, which improves the air flow under the car and increases straight line speed. Moveable aerodynamic devices are not allowed and the FIA have moved swiftly to ban these moving floors. The question is, how much will it impact on the pace of Ferrari and BMW? It has been reported that while it was McLaren who raised the issue with the FIA, the reality is that all the teams have been employing the use of movable floors for some time, it is just a question of degree. It seems that Ferrari and BMW have been able to get more out of the technology than the others, so the game is up, everyone has to play by the new rules. No doubt a large part of the test in Sepang was used to adapt the cars to running without the Flexi Floors, but it was interesting that the only two teams who specifically said they did not have modify their cars were Williams and Super Aguri. Perhaps they will show a relative performance gain, but Williams’ Sam Michaels played down the whole thing, saying that he didn’t believe it would make a big difference, a feeling expressed by other engineers. However, you have to wonder why McLaren called the foul on the two teams either side of them in terms of performance? You have to think that they did so in order to increase their chances of closing the gap to one, and increasing the gap to the other, just normal F1 games. Perhaps the biggest surprise is that the FIA acted so quickly, and against their old pals at Ferrari. It looks like we will see some relative changes in performance this week, and logic suggests that McLaren will be closer to Ferrari, but probably not enough threaten them on pure performance, but they may have Raikkonen on the back foot. The Finns Ferrari experienced a water leak in the later part of the Melbourne race and the team are concerned that it may put the reliability of the unit at risk for Malaysia. Sepang is quite hard on engines with 70% full throttle and very high temperatures, any weakness will be severely tested. The fact that Massa had to have an engine change after a gearbox failure in Melbourne might well convince Ferrari to play a conservative game and give Kimi a new engine and take the 10 place grid penalty. Such is the performance advantage of their car, Raikkonen can still expect to get a podium, even starting outside the top 10. That should make Massa the main hope for a second win of the season for Ferrari. The Brazilian looked a picture of despondency in Melbourne. Having apparently had the measure of the Finn all winter, he suffered a mechanical failure in qualifying and had to watch as Raikkonen got pole, set the fastest lap of the race and take the win in his first race for Ferrari. Massas’ hopes of getting off to a winning start and getting the team behind him, went at the very moment his gearbox broke. Massa is favourite to win, and it is hard to argue against that fact, but I suspect McLaren will be happy that they will have closed the gap a little, that Raikkonen is likely to have to start from the middle of the grid and they can then try and apply pressure to Ferraris second string driver, who is already under pressure to rescue his own title dreams. Sepang has a short history as an F1 venue, but it has thrown up its fair share of, if not ‘shock’ wins, certainly not necessarily the winner that was expected. Despite the absence of Michael Schumacher, there are four past winners on the grid, Fisichella, Raikkonen, Ralf Schumacher and Alonso. Those wins for Fisi, Raikkonen and Ralf were those drivers only wins that season. They were in decent cars but not favourites to win. Perhaps we can see a similar result in 2007. The obvious candidate has to be Lewis Hamilton. He has a car that is certainly good enough for a podium and his performance in Melbourne showed that he is mature beyond his years. I believe that Alonso was not driving at his limits for most of the race, but the fact was that Hamilton got ahead of him at the start, with THE move of the race, and looked totally at home in the car. If he is to beat his team mate, perhaps the early part of the season is a good opportunity as Alonso is still coming to terms with a new team and a new tyre supplier. The test last week will have given the young Briton valuable track experience and his very smooth driving style suggests he will be very strong in a wet race, always a possibility in this part of the world in April. Of course beating Ferrari will require some luck, but the F2007 has shown enough fragility to offer up some hope for McLaren and the rain has a habit of providing fairytale results. 2 points e/w Lewis Hamilton to win @ 14/1 with SportingBet, SportingOdds. won + 3.60 Williams had mixed results in Melbourne, Rosberg land us a nice 4/1 bet to finish in the points but Wurz suffered in qualifying and spent his race stuck in traffic before Coulthard nearly decapitated him with one of the worst over taking efforts I have seen. I haven’t given up on Wurz or Williams and if they have found the key to getting more from their tyres in qualifying a points finish is very possible. Wurz will have a fresh engine for Saturday and Sunday and might just be able to turn the wick up a little higher than some of the other. The fact that Williams have not had to make changes regarding the Flexi Floor issue is another small positive. Traditionally, Sepang has been a good track for Williams and last year they qualified 3rd and 4th. They know how to get the job done here. 3 points Wurz to Finish in the points @ 5/2 with Corals, BetFred. lost 3 points Adding: 4 points Barrichello to out qualify Button @ 2.70 with Bet24. lost 4 points This is simply too big a price for two drivers who were 9-9 on the qualifying H2H’s last year. Last weeks test had Barrichello just a fraction quicker than his team mate, really there is little between the two and 2.70 is just plain wrong. 2 points Sato to win Group 4 @ 9/4 with BetDirect. won 4.5 points The Super Aguri was one of the revelations at Melbourne, certainly in qualifying with Sato getting 10th. Their race pace is not so good but they should manage to get another top 14 finish. This team is very much built around Sato and I suspect he will command the best resources and strategic calls in this small outfit throughout the season. Davidson is quick, but is still not fully over his back injury he picked up in Melbourne. The two Torro Rosso cars were around 1 second off the Super Aguris’ in qualifying and despite having a small advantage in race pace, they will struggle to beat Sato if the Japanese driver can get a 6 or 7 place lead on the grid. |
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