Japanese GP – Preview. Enjoy this weekends race on the mighty Suzuka circuit, it will be the last for a couple of years at least. F1 has this strange habit of dropping the best circuits on the calendar and replacing them with dull ones in a desert or tropical swamp. No doubt someone is trousering vast sums of cash, so that’s OK then. The weather in Japan at this time of year can be pretty lively and this weekend is no exception with tropical cyclone ‘Bebinca’ hitting the Suzuka area as I write (Suzuka web cam http://weathernews.jp/livecam/cgi/l...iveid=410001428). It is a virtual certainty that Friday will be completely wet, that Sunday will be dry, but calling Saturdays weather is much more difficult. The latest forecasts are saying that the rain should finally pass though the area of the track by Saturday morning. It is likely that Saturdays free practice will be at least damp if not full on wet. While the belt of rain should have passed, there is still a chance of showers through the day, so the actual qualifying could be dry, or could be wet. The evidence from Hungary and China is that Michelin are at a distinct advantage in wet conditions. There is a brief period when the surface is just turning from wet to dry were the Bridgestone are better, but generally speaking, it is Ferrari who are hoping for the dry weather. Renault are very bullish about their prospects for this race, and certainly the pace shown in China, wet or dry, was impressive. Schumacher picked up the 10 points but it was one of his luckier wins. There is little doubt that Schumacher was driving with something in hand in the closing stages of the race, but the fact that Alonso was a second a lap faster was not just down to Schumacher cruising. The Renault now looks the faster car, not enough to be dominant, but enough to win the race if there are no more dropped wheel nuts. Renault have taken the decision the change Alonso’s pit crew as a result of the mechanics expensive fumble. Wet or dry Alonso looks the favourite to me, but the bookies still side with Schumacher. Sadly there is nothing like the 5.00 available this week, but he still looks the better bet at 3.00. 4 points Alonso to win the Japanese GP @ 3.00 with Unibet. won 8 points With the realistic chance of another wet qualifying (which would make it the 4th rain affected qualifying in a row at Suzuka) Alonso has to be backed at 3.25. A quicker car and perhaps weather to help. 3 points Alonso to set fastest qualifying lap at 3.25 with Extrabet, Unibet, Hills. lost 3 points Suzuka is owned by Honda and they will want to make a mark on their home race. The car isn’t good enough to beat the Renault or Ferrari on merit, but they could be tempted to have a glory run in qualifying. Toyota played the same game with Ralf Schumacher here last season, running with a very light fuel load to get pole on the their arch rivals playground. Toyota have slipped back in recent races and it is more likely that it will be Honda who try to steal some thunder, on Saturday at least. They also have Michelin tyres to help them out if we have a wet qualifying. The two Hondas qualified 3rd & 4th (with identical times) last weekend in the rain but they were considerably lighter on fuel than the two Renaults in front of them and still 1.2 seconds of the Renault of Alonso. So, even with low fuel and a wet track they look likely to be fighting for 3rd and 4th again. With the incentive of impressing the home crowd Barrichello looks a reasonable bet to out qualify the McLaren of De la Rosa. It is 3-3 on the qualifying H2H’s this season but I expect the Honda to be a bit lighter on fuel and I am not convinced that De la Rosa will shine on what is a very demanding track. 4 points Barrichello to out qualify De La Rosa @ 1.80 with Unibet. won 3.20 points There aren’t great deal of interesting odds out there at present and with little meaningful running on Friday expected, the next update will be on Saturday evening (UK time). |
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Betting Previews
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