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Japanese GP – Saturday Update.

The Fridays free practice sessions suggest that McLaren have a decent advantage here. The problem is that the weather looks like throwing up the first proper wet race we have seen for some time. If the race on Sunday isn’t wet then I will believe that Max Mosley is a really nice guy and that the FIA isn’t a branch of the Ferrari fan club.

1 point ‘Any Other’ dual forecast @ 20/1 with Ladbrokes

won 20 points

With a wet race in prospect we have to expect the unexpected and the early bets are looking great value if nothing else. So far this season the dual forecast betting market has only once featured 1 non McLaren/Ferrari driver in 1^st or 2^nd place. That was in Montreal, a race dominated by Kubica’s big crash and the DQ of Fisichella and Massa. A bit of a freak race in other words. Perhaps it is worth a small bet that chaos will ‘rain’ and the first two steps on the podium will have an unfamiliar face on it.

3 points Safety Car to be deployed @ 6/4 with Skybet

won 4.5 points - Correction. Skybet have voided the bet as the race was started under the safety car. One of those rules to protect lazy compilers who pay no attention to weather forecasts.

With no track form to go on, guessing the things like retirement rates is very difficult but it may be worth a bet that we will see a safety car being deployed and some stage. The track does feature several blind apex’s and there was an incident today were Yamamoto had a spin, rejoined the race track, only to be clipped by Barrichello who had come over the blind apex only to find the recovering Spyker in his path. Luckily it was only a glancing blow, but it was close to being a serious crash. Barrichello has made it clear that the marshals will have to be very quick to deploy the yellows in order to avoid a more serious incident.

If there are genuine safety issues, then the race stewards will act on the side of caution. Throw in the likely rain fall and we should expect cars spinning off, with marshals being deployed to recover crashed cars. In wet conditions, with blind corners, it is a dangerous situation and will increase the odds of a safety car being deployed. And of course, if it helps get a Ferrari into contention, well must remember that certain people would very much like to see that.