Italian GP – Sunday update 4 points Nico Rosberg to win Wacky races with Corals @ 2/1. won 8 points The Williams has been consistently quick in all the sessions this weekend and the reliability in recent races has been very good. Trulli is second favourite but he has ‘over qualified’ his car once again and will find it hard to hold his position. Having just had a look at Trullis’ first lap performances this season (excluding the rain induced chaos in the European GP) he has improved on his qualifying position just once and lost at least 1 place on nine occasions. On average he has lost over 4 places per race. That is what can happen then you qualify better than you race. Button at 5/1 third favourite may be a danger as the Honda is much happier with all those bits of aero kit that do not work, taken off for this low drag circuit. It is much more about the engine, handling the kerbs and using the rear tyres well and it is working out well for Button. The car is usually stronger in races than in qualifying and they are not suffering from any blistering on the tyres that has been hurting many other teams. His problem is that he has been been around 0.3 seconds off Williams and if he fails to get ahead of Rosberg at the start, it will be hard to beat him with that sort of performance gap. Rosbergs race starts have improved greatly as the season has gone on and if he gets his nose in front on lap 1, he will be very hard to beat 6 points Rosberg to beat Trulli @ 8/11 with Paddy Power won 4.38 points Based on the same argument as above. Rosberg has won 4 of their last 5 H2H’s and the only loss was the lottery that was the European GP. Another worry for Toyota is their long term problem with coping with big kerbs. This has been a problem for years and was again highlighted in Canada when their drivers well told not to drive over one particular kerb, or the suspension would probably collapse. 2 points Button to finish in the points @ 15/8 with Ladbrokes. won 3.76 points Kicking myself for not going for this on Thursday as I suspected that Honda would be reasonably good here. He starts 10th and while I suspect he will not have too much problem dealing with Trulli, he may well need someone ahead to have a problem, hence the small stakes. Honda have a great points scoring record at Monza, in the points for the last 7 seasons and Jenson does seem to be actually enjoying himself again. |
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