Italian GP – Preview. It is fair to say that the bookies will have been very happy with the last two races, Button breaks his duck winning a wet race in Hungary and then Massa wining his first race in Turkey. This there a chance of a third surprise winner? Surely not. The track surface at Monza was largely resurfaced in the last few months and after last weeks major test at the track, was said to be offering up less grip, especially for the Michelin tyres. The Bridgestones performed better on the new surface (another Ferrari conspiracy?) and Michelin have had to go back to the factory to work on new compounds. An early advantage for Ferrari. Normally it would be a good time to get stuck into the Bridgestone runners, but there is a fly in the ointment. The weather forecast for Monza this weekend is bit of a problem, betting wise. I am not worried about Sunday as this looks set to be dry and sunny, but Saturday is not such a clear picture. The chances of rain have receded, but the threat is still big enough to make me cautious. We saw in Hungary that Michelin have made great strides in wet weather performance and Bridgestones previous dominance in this area as become a liability. If we were to have a few showers on Saturday it could be the Michelin runners who would hold track advantage. So in terms of having some early bets, there is a fair degree of risk that the weather could send the proverbial formbook out the window. The most sensible course of action is to hold fire until Saturday morning when the conditions should be a little more certain. However there is one bet that looks too big a price to pass up even with the possibility of a mixed up grid for Sunday. 6 points Ralf Schumacher to finish in the points @11/10 with SportingOdds, BetUk. lost 6 points I have no shame in recommending this bet for the 3rd race in a row as it continues to offer good value. Ralf has finished in the points in 3 of the last 4 races and the only one he has missed was Germany were he was forced to pit for a new nose cone after a first lap stunt and then receiving a drive through penalty later in the race, bringing his pit-stop tally in the race to 4. The fact that he still finished 9th shows that with a clear run he was going to be nearer 3rd than 9th. The Toyota’s are on Bridgestone rubber which looks likely to have an advantage in dry conditions and this is a track on which Ralf has enjoyed good results in the past, with 4 podium finishes and 2 fastest laps. While Monza is a low downforce – high speed track in which engine power and straight line speed are prime factors required for success, the driver still has to be very precise in were he places his car through the chicanes and Ralf has proven that he is very capable on this unique circuit. Even if rain in qualifying was to deal Ralf a poor grid slot, he has proved that he can bring the car home in the top 8, even when coming from the middle of the pack. The next update will be around 30 minutes before qualifying, but you may wish to check this page before then, in case the forecast firms up sufficiently for more bets to be recommended. |
|
|
Betting Previews
|
|
|