Italian GP – Preview. Monza is the last of the great high speed tracks. There are no real corners, just sweeping curves, long straights and three chicanes put in to prevent the track being dangerously fast. The unique nature of the track requires a very low downforce set up that will not be used anywhere else and some cars are better suited by this type of track than others. It is very much a track that rewards engine power as nearly 80% of the lap is taken at full throttle. Stability under braking is crucial when slowing from over 210 mph to 50 mph going into a tight chicane, and the ability of the suspension to attack the big kerbs in those chicanes. BMW are a case in point. A powerful engine and decent handling in low downforce trim allowed Heidfeld to qualify 3rd in 2006 despite carrying significantly more fuel than the cars on the front row. Pole position really was possible and the cars performance was underlined by Kubica finishing 3rd. Monza is defiantly a track that can allow a ‘surprise’ result and while Ferrari and McLaren are firm favourites to dominate the podium, they will be casting nervous glances over their shoulders, worrying that the two BMW’s could very well put a big dent in somebody’s Championship hopes. There was a rain affected 4 day test here last week and the pundits were surprised by the fact that McLaren had the fastest car on each day. The general opinion is that those times were set on reasonably low fuel loads and that Ferrari looked the stronger package on the longer ‘race simulation’ runs. That will still cause some concern at Ferrari as they know that this is a track that allows for little in the way of overtaking and if they are beaten in qualifying, perhaps by McLaren and BMW, then having a faster car will not be enough to win the race. Like so many races this year, what happens on Saturday is crucial. The rivalry between Alonso and Hamilton will be overshadowed by the spy scandal this weekend but it’s still there, bubbling away. Alonso will not stop carping on about how unfair it all is that he is not being helped by the team. By all accounts his stock within the team is falling rapidly and the there is a growing realisation, not least by Alonso himself, that the simple fact is that Hamilton is just that little bit faster. His ability to put in phenomenal qualifying laps is crucial. In the race there is little between them, but in qualifying, Lewis is much more impressive. The head to head stats say 6-6, but early in the season Hamilton normally carried more fuel than his team mate and that up to and including Monaco is where Alonso scored 4 of his qualifying ‘wins’ over Hamilton. Since then, fuel loads have been very similar and the only two occasions when Alonso has out qualified Hamilton was in Germany where Lewis’ tyre failure caused him to crash, and Hungary, where of course the Spaniard cheated his team mate out of pole (a situation rightly rectified by the stewards). Hamilton does seem to have the edge over a flying lap and that is really hurting Alonso in the races. The modern F1 car is so aerodynamically sensitive that following behind, even a slower car, makes the front end ‘light’ and this loss of grip makes overtaking under braking very difficult. This has been highlighted by Raikkonen setting fastest laps at the very end of the last two GP’s, he had a faster car, but had no chance of overtaking and was just making the point, ‘I am the fastest’, but you cannot over take. If Alonso is going to struggle to out qualify his team mate, never mind the Ferraris and BMW’s, I really cannot see him winning the race. If we do see a McLaren win, it is Hamilton who looks the more likely. However, despite the impressive test last week and confident talk from the McLaren camp, I have to suspect that the Ferrari will have the faster car and if they can qualify on the front row, then they really should be winning this race on home ground. Much like the battle between drivers at McLaren, the business of qualifying is the key between Massa and Raikkonen and it is Massa who looks the more impressive over a flying lap. It is a sign of how much Massa has improved in the last 18 months that he can go head to head with the Flying Finn in qualifying and realistically be made favourite. He is 7-5 up in qualifying and has suffered bad luck in Australia when the car broke and of course when the team cocked up in the Hungarian qualifying. In truth, he could be 9-3. Like Alonso, Raikkonen is struggling to win races, because he is not qualifying well. However, there is hope this weekend. The tracks were he has looked good on Saturday have been those of a faster, lower downforce nature, Silverstone (really should have pole, but for a poor error on the last corner) and Canada. On both tracks he beat Massa and he was on pole position here last year. A lap of Monza is not the most technically challenging in F1 and with fewer pitfalls and on the kind of track Raikkonen likes, he could well get his 3rd pole of the year. That in turn would make the job of winning the race much easier. Raikkonen has had the fastest car for the last two races, but has been unable to use it after poor qualifying efforts. Surely it is only a matter of time before he gets it all right, gets pole, or at least a front row and make the pace of the car tell. The fast sweeping bends and long straights are ideal for the long wheelbase Ferrari and they will be desperate to win in front of the home fans. If Raikkonen gets pole, he should be a short priced odds on favourite and it is worth taking the price on offer for the race now. 4 points Raikkonen to win the Italian GP @ 9/4 with Ladbrokes. lost 4 points The problem with betting on pole for this race is that it is not just about the usual four drivers, the BMW boys will have a say on Saturday afternoon, so taking odds of around 3/1 for anyone is not attractive. BMW definitely has a stronger package than 2006 and they had a very good weekend here last year. They carried more fuel than Ferrari and McLaren, but still went for a two stop strategy. They could have had pole had they carried a similar fuel load to Schumacher or Raikkonen, and if they had carried just another 5 more laps worth of fuel, they could have made just 1 stop. Thanks to Alonso’s retirement, they ended up with a podium. This season they are comfortably the third best team, nailed on to make Q3 and I wonder if they will take a gamble and try for a 1 stop race? The time penalty for weight carried is lower on this track than any other, so it may be possible for them to still qualify on the third row and make a 1 stop less than the two big teams. That might make things interesting. The downside is that they might end up stuck behind a lower fuelled Renault or Toyota for the first 20 or so laps and that would be the gamble lost. They may of course to go for 2 stops, go low on fuel in an attempt to get the pole position, which would be good PR for BMW. Either way, Heidfeld and Kubica are very likely to be major players this weekend and worth backing. This is a track where both drivers could get on the front two rows, and even pole position is possible. 2 points e/w Heidfeld to be fastest qualifier @ 33/1 with Hills, Stan James. 1 point e/w Kubica to be fastest qualifier @ 40/1 with Paddy Power. lost 2 points The team know that this is their best chance of the season to get close to the big two teams and they are targeting a podium finish and may well get it. 1 point Heidfeld to finish on the podium @ 6/1 with Ladbrokes lost 1 point 1 point Kubica to finish on the podium @ 10/1 with Sportingbet lost 1 point Next update 30 mins before Qualifying. |
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