Hungarian GP – Preview. The mass damper issue rumbles now but the good news for Renault is that the FIA have taken at least 1 step back and will allow them to be used before the appeal will be heard, without the threat of any points being removed retrospectively. So we will see Renault back at a much higher level of performance this weekend, but even with the mass dampers, it is hard to see them overturning the Ferrari/Bridgestone dominance. The Hungaroring is not everyone’s cup of tea, but at least it is different to most tracks, with just a hint of Monaco in its nature. It is the second slowest track, very bumpy, full of corners but no really slow ones, dusty and extremely hard to overtake on. The cars will be set up for high downforce, second only to Monaco in this respect. With overtaking very difficult (not impossible, just very hard) a good grid position will be vital and in fact the pole position drivers win rate here is higher than Monaco, so Saturday will be the day were the race is won and lost. The top team will all be desperate to get pole or as near the front as possible so they will be going as low on fuel as they dare, but going too low carries the risk that early stoppers will come out in traffic, so the trick is to carry enough to run long enough to open a gap to the pack, but not so much that you qualify outside the 2 or 3 rows. The teams that know they are not quick enough to win are likely to play a different game and plan for one less stop. So expect Ferrari, Renault, McLaren, Toyota, Honda and probably Williams to run light in qualifying and the others heavier. Williams are hard to call as they do seem to execute long, heavy fuel runs effectively, but they feel they have a realistic podium chance this weekend and may well be aggressive and run low. McLaren got a ‘surprise’ pole in Germany but that was as much by luck than design as they did not have as much fuel in Raikkonens car as they thought. It will be interesting to see if they revert to type and run a little heavier that the opposition as they have done for most of the season. Ferrari will be low and very hard to beat but in the last 3 years here we have seen a ‘surprise’ in the top 3 on the grid. Last year it was Trulli in 3rd, 2004 Sato and 2003 Webber, so the driver can make a difference on this quirky track and likewise it is easy to make a mistake on the dusty track and lose a few 10th’s. I will stick to the two proven qualifying experts , with track form and on Bridgestone tyres which just seem to have the edge in qualifying in hot conditions, Trulli and Webber. Trulli continues to have no luck at all this season, but there is no doubt that the potential is there both in qualifying and the race. The Toyota is closing the gap to the top 3 all time if Trulli can get a weekend were the car doesn’t break on Friday and/or Saturday, he is capable of pulling off a blinder and getting right in amongst the top 2 rows. He nearly did it in France at 80/1, but his problems in Germany gave him no chance in the T-Car. I’ll stick with him once again. 1 point e/w Trulli to set fastest qualifying lap @ 50/1 with Ladbrokes, UKBetting lost 2 points Webber managed 3rd on the grid in Monaco and has been top 3 here before and with the team very confident in high downforce conditions he looks overpriced at 100/1 1 point e/w Mark Webber to set fastest qualifying lap @ 100/1 with Skybet, Ladbrokes, UKBetting. lost 2 points Ralf Schumacher had another weekend to forget for Toyota in Germany, but still came in 9th after a first lap crash, 3 pit stops and a drive through penalty. Given a clear run he would have nearer 3rd than 9th and he looks great value to finish in the points at 11/10. He likes the track and has finished every race in Hungary, has 6 top 5 finishes and scored his first podium for Toyota here last year. Granted the reliability of the Toyota is not great but this is a track that is not a car breaker and the price is simply too big. 6 points Ralf Schumacher to finish in the points @ 11/10 with BlueSq. won 6.6 points BMW Sauber will have a very different look about them this weekend as Villeneuve has rather strangely pulled out of the race, saying that he is unfit after his crash in Germany. Very strange as it did not seem to be a big crash and there was nothing wrong with him when interviewed on TV shortly afterwards. Is this the last we have seen of JV in an F1 car perhaps? Anyway, the team have struggled badly since they had to chance their rear wing and no longer look like the team who were knocking on the door of the top 4 a few races ago. I back Rosberg to have one of his better weekends on a track that will suit the Williams car. He has been pretty invisible since his bright start to the season, but he should enjoy a car/tyre advantage this weekend over the struggling BMW. It also means that as Kubica replaces Villeneuve as their race driver, BMW are short of a Friday driver. At this point I have no knowledge if they are to draft in a 3rd driver, but it will be hard to find someone who can do the job well at such short notice. 4 points Rosberg to out qualify Heidfeld @ 2.00 with Unibet. lost 4 points Next update 30 minutes before qualifying. |
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