Hungarian GP – Preview. The Hungaroring track may not be very glamorous, but at least it is different, and tracks with clear cut characteristics often make for good betting opportunities. The Budapest track is a bit like Monaco’s poor relation. Both are slow, high downforce tracks on which over taking is nigh on impossible. The Hungaroring might not have the barriers to instantly terminate a drivers race if he goes off line, but it does have a lot of dust just off the racing line. Make a mistake here and your tyres get covered in crud and you loose a lot of grip and speed. This dust on the track is another reason why overtaking is so difficult. The car in front just needs to hold the racing line and he will be very hard to pass. It’s clear that, like Monaco, grid position is very important and the key to the race is Saturdays qualifying. Sadly, this is where things get tricky. It was going to be simple this weekend. The McLaren is faster than Ferrari on slow, twisty tracks and a 1-2 finish for the Silver Arrows on a track that is perfect for their car looked a strong possibility. The plan was to get the heavyweight punting boots on and charge into the McLaren drivers for pole and the race. Simple really, until I took a look at the weather forecast, just to check that it would be a scorcher. Sadly not. For the umpteenth time this season the threat of rain hangs over the race weekend, and Saturday’s qualifying session in particular, looks likely to be rain affected. Rain is very popular with race fans, but it is an unwelcome random factor when it comes to punting. With all the teams on the same make of tyres, rain should not be as big a problem for punters as it was last year when Michelin runners were very quick in damp conditions, but the Bridgestones much fast when things got really wet. The problem is that rain rarely falls in a totally uniform manner. We might have a couple of showers during the session, and any drivers making their flying laps just as the heavens open will be shafted and that is just as likely to be Alonso as it is Yamamoto. Then there is the problem of cars spinning off in damp conditions, yellow flags being deployed and again anyone on a flying lap is compromised through no fault of their own. If the rain does play apart, there will be winners and losers in the lottery and betting with heavyweight confidence is impossible. We are faced with a dilemma. Go in and back the McLarens now, hoping the forecast is wrong (and lets face it, they often are) or hold fire until just before qualifying and hope that the picture will be clearer, and indeed that the odds will still be attractive enough to warrant a bet. If we have a dry Friday and McLaren set the pace the odds of 11/4 Alonso and 3/1 Hamilton for pole position will be history. A compromise looks the only option, smaller stakes and 1 flyer in case it is wet. Ferrari are making noises to the effect the they have made gains in high downforce set up, but I have to favour McLaren, but which of the two drivers is more likely to get pole? Alonso has the lowest averaging qualifying position over the season so far, but just 1 pole position. He has been on pole here in the past and will be in good form after the important win in Germany. Hamilton has been able to convert his pace into 3 poles (from the last 5 races, a very good recent strike rate), but he did make a couple of mistakes here in GP2 last year, so there may be a seed of doubt in his mind, but I doubt it, he is just too young for that to bother him. Hamilton does seem to have that X factor that the great qualifiers of the past have had, just being able to wring every last drop of pace out of the car and himself, without pushing it beyond the limits of physics. Sennaesque in his execution of the flying lap. Raikkonen and Alonso are no slouches, but we have seen them make mistakes when pushing for pole this season, and on this track, the pressure on the qualifying lap will be massive. Massa strikes me as the better of the two Ferrari driver in qualifying and he has scored more poles than anyone in 2007 (4) but surely the McLaren will be too quick. On the balance of evidence, the vote goes to Hamilton. 3 points Hamilton to qualify on pole position @ 3/1 with SportingBet, Skybet and BlueSq. lost 3 points (even if he did actually start from pole!) Just in case it does rain and we get a proper wet qualifying session, it might just be worth taking a flyer on Jenson Button to provide a qualifying sensation. Of course he won this race in the rain last year, but what really marks him out as a wet weather master was his stunning start to the European GP last time out. He started back in 17th place and was slow of the line and was 19th coming into the 1st corner. By lap 2 he was 4th and closing in on Alonso at over 0.2 seconds a lap. Sadly he then aquaplaned off the track and broke the suspension, but it was as fine a piece of wet weather driving as you will see. His talent can make even the horrible Honda look like a racing car in the rain. Of course, in the dry he will struggle to get into the top 15, but you have to take a chance now and then and the odds are huge. 0.5 point e/w Jenson Button to qualify on pole position @ 250/1 with BlueSq, Coral, Boylesports. lost 1 point (no rain) With the weather forecast looking uncertain, the other planned bets will have to be put on hold. The next update is likely to be 30 minutes before qualifying but it might be worth checking back on Friday evening, just in case something crops up. |
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