German GP – Preview.
The battle for the Championship has entered a new phase with Bridgestone and Ferrari now being the top combination. The win at Indy was widely accepted as a one off, due to Michelins conservative approach, but their win in France was not expected and has gone to prove that Bridgestones new generation of tyres are perfectly able to compete in any conditions and on any surface. Hot temperatures used to be their Achilles Heel, now it holds no fears. As far as the two cars are concerned, there is little to separate them and it is the tyres which have swung the battle back to Ferrari and Schumacher. This weekends race at Hockenhiem will be no different and the temperatures are again set to be high. The big difference between Magny Cours and Hockenhiem is the track surface. In France it was very smooth and here it is very abrasive, so we could see another swing, but on recent form, you have to fancy Bridgestone. The Michelin management are adamant that their tyre is still better in race runs but do admit that Bridgestone are faster in qualifying. The first part is questionable, but the second may open up an betting opportunity. The last two qualifying sessions have seen both the Ferraris on the front row. In France, the two Bridgestone shod Toyotas in 4 & 5 and even the humble Midlands have been breaking out of the bottom 6 in Q1. The only Bridgestone team that have not ridden on the back of the improved tyres are Williams, indeed they suffered from their Bridgestones delaminating at Magny Cours which goes to show that it is a fine line between success and failure. Trulli was 0.25 seconds off Alonso’s pace in Magny Cours qualifying but he was carrying 3 more laps worth of fuel, was on the harder of the Bridgestone compounds and complained that he made a few mistakes on his flying lap. A top 3 on the grid was within his reach and is likely to be so again, perhaps more so. Trulli will be using the new upgraded Toyota engine this weekend and it appears Ferrari and Renault maybe in a spot of bother with the FIA regarding their front mass dampers. All very dull but in brief these are designed to maximise the tyres contact with the ground, allow stiffer suspension and ultimately improve grip. The FIA have deemed the dampers used by Renault, Ferrari and Red Bull to be illegal and thus cannot be used. Expert opinion estimates this could cost 0.2 - 0. 3 seconds a lap, which is a fair whack. It is reported that Renault will turn up in Germany with their existing dampers and ask the stewards to make a decision. Renault are bringing a heavily revised aero package to Hockenhiem as they are now pushing very hard to defend they lead in both driver and constructors championship, and the last thing they need is the FIA sticking the boot in. It is interesting that Ferrari have been very quite about all this, usually the sound of Jean Todt whining is deafening if Ferraris performance is to be comprised by a rule change. Could it be that Renault will be more severely affected by the damper issue? Call me a old cynic, but yes, that is my conclusion. It would suit Ferrari fine if they are losing 0.1 seconds and Renault 0.2. The one sure thing is that Toyota are not affected and any enforced changes will close the gap between them and the big two. Suddenly the front row on the grid is a possibility, especially if Trulli puts together one of his qualifying specials. 2 points e/w Trulli to set fastest qualifying lap @ 50/1 with Ladbrokes, UKBetting, TotalBet. Staying on the qualifying theme, R. Schumacher may not be the qualifying ace that Trulli is, but this years Toyota is much more to his liking and with the improved car and tyres he should be comfortably inside the top 10 and aiming for another top 5. With Renault facing a damper ban, Toyota can close the gap to Renault by a fair amount and Ralf looks decent value to out qualifying Fisichella, as he did in France last time out. 2 points R. Schumacher to out qualify Fisichella @ 2.95 with Unibet. As for the race itself, that is harder to call as Michelin are closer to Bridgestone over long runs and the gap between Ferrari/Renault and the rest of the field is quite large. Only in Canada have the big 2 been threatened, by Kimi Raikkonen in the McLaren. Since than the Silver Arrows have lost a driver and been very average, falling behind Toyota in the performance stakes. However this is Mercedes home race and they must put in a strong performance. The team have promised to be more aggressive in qualifying (less fuel) and it may help, but while it is a home race for Mercedes, it is Kimis’ nightmare track. 5 German GP’s have resulted in 5 DNF’s for Raikkonen, something always goes wrong. He is due a change of luck but in the past when McLaren have pulled out all the stops to go for glory, their cars tend to break down rather too often. If the ‘Curse of Kimi’ strikes again it could open up an opportunity for De la Rosa to shine. He set a faster lap time than Raikkonen in France but his qualifying wasn’t great and I feel he is not quiet podium material. This is also BMW’s home race but things are not looking great there at the moment. Their very effective rear wing was banned in France and now those silly looking front vertical wings have been banned as well. Test driver Kubica, has warned that the car is not at its best on these higher downforce tracks and they might have to rely on the continued bad form of Williams and Honda if they are to get another top 8 finish. For the race out right, the bookies seem to have the prices about right in my opinion. Schumacher odds on favourite, Alonso around the 2.63 mark and the rest 11/1 or bigger. The two Toyota’s look generously priced at 1.80 and 1.91 to finish in the top 8, but reliability has not been good for Toyota and as a result, I prefer to stick to the qualifying for now. There will be more bets to come and Saturday mornings update will be 30 minutes before qualifying. |
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