French GP – Sunday update. It should be a very close contest between Alonso and the Ferraris today, the gap is nowhere near what we saw in the USA and the tyres will crucial in deciding who wins. So far it is Bridgestone who have had the upper hand, but the nature of the track does change and it could move towards Michelin, who were surprised that the degradation rate was still high on Saturday. This was probably due the track being washed clean by heavy rain on Friday night. Will all the extra rubber laid down on Saturday and Sunday morning, it could behave differently to qualifying. It is very hard to guess, but worth baring in mind if betting in running. 3 points Heidfeld to win Midfield group @ 11/4 with Ladbrokes. Won 8.25 points Three joint favourites in this group, Coulthard, Webber and Heidfeld with the two Hondas making up the numbers. On recent form Heidfeld looks a stand out bet, but the BMW has not been quite as good as in recent races (the flexi wing has been replaced) but it is still the best car in this group. His greatest hope is the start line performance of the BMW Sauber which is one of the very quickest off the line (last 5 races pre USA crash he made up an average of 3 places at the start). Overtaking is very hard on this track and if he gets the jump on Webber and DC at the start he must have a good chance. Coulthard is always very good in France and it was a great effort to get into the top 10. However is the Red Bull really that good? I think not, the driver gets the credit and the driver said the car was good on low fuel runs, implying that it is a bit of a pig in race trim. Webber has claims, especially if Bridgestone do have the better tyre, but with 6 DNF’s in 10 starts in 2006, Webber/Williams is not a combination that inspires great confidence. I think we can disregard the hopeless Hondas, the team is a shambles. 4 points over 16 cars to be classified as finishers @ 13/10 with Stan James. lost 4 points We have seen two very high attrition rate races in North America and the main reason was accident damage, even the British GP had 3 retirements due to accident damage. The Magny Cours track is not particularly hard on cars, despite the high temperatures and there are remarkably few accidents. In the last 5 years there has been only 1 true accident induced retirement, helped by generous run off areas and the fact that the first corner is not one that features heavy braking, allowing the cars to find a position without the worry of the car in front suddenly throwing on the anchors. If we get through the opening lap unscathed we have 6 retirements before we would lose, and this bet would have paid out 4 times in the last 5 years. |
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