French GP – Saturday Update. Well, we have a very unusual situation going into qualifying after this mornings free practice. The usual suspect were lurking well down the time sheets but of course there are reasons. Schumacher had a fire which meant he only ran 5 laps early in the session. Massa also choose to limit his run to 8 laps, so Ferrari/Bridgestone are clearly saving rubber (probable 3 stop race) and fairly confident with their position. Renault ran many more laps but Alonso did not use a new set of tyres which explains his poor showing. Fisichella did but still didn’t set a great time and both Renaults were having serious problems with graining, especially on the front left tyre. The body language of the pit crew was not one of calm confidence and with the strong performance of the Williams and Toyota’s this morning, Bridgestone look to have come to Michelins home race with a tyre that might just upset the form book. A lot of cars have introduced major revisions for this race after the two fly away races and it would be no surprise to see a fluctuation in relative performances. Toyota, BMW and Williams seem to have improved and the time difference between them and the top teams is closing. Add to this the fact that Magny Cours has very unusually smooth track surface, which is also going to be 50 degrees+ in qualifying, and you are likely to see the tyres degrading very fast. Whomever wins the tyre war, will win the race and Bridgestone look impressive. Qualifying is a different kettle of fish as the Michelins graining problem may not kick in until after the flying lap, but it is clear that they are suffering more than the Bridgestone. This many force Michelin to run a more conservative tyre, which will not be great for qualifying. It could be that we get a surprise or two on the grid later today and the prices on offer look to be based on recent races, rather than the evidence of this morning. It is worth taking a punt on some big prices. 2 points M. Schumacher to set fastest qualifying lap @ 5/1 with SportingOdds. won 10 points 3 points M. Schumacher to beat Alonso in qualifying @ 3/1 with SportingOdds. won 9 points 2 points e/w M. Schumacher to win the Grand Prix @ 5/1 with SportingOdds won 12 points |
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