French GP – Preview. This weekends French GP is interesting for a number of reasons. The departure of Montoya means a race return for De la Rosa in the improving McLaren. The Renault vs. Ferrari battle after the red cars very easy win in the USA, and for now the teams will stand relative to each other after some heavy revisions after the fly away races. The most striking car will be the BMW Sauber with two vertical wings mounted halfway between the front wing and the drivers head. It looks bizarre and will have to be passed by the race stewards, but as it breaks no rules, is likely to pass. The car has also sprouted McLaren like wings on the side of the air intakes and these changes are all designed to improve rear wing performance, which is interesting as the FIA have finally told BMW to change they rear wing after all the talk of ‘flexi wings’. There was no doubt that BMW were exploiting a grey area in the rules and this has finally been closed. It remains to be seen if the new aero devices will work as well as the old wing, but if they do, expect much gnashing of teeth from the other teams who will again cry foul. Williams’ season has bee a huge anticlimax with the aerodynamics being the scapegoat. It is a long time since Williams were leaders in terms of aerodynamic performance and the seemingly endless personnel changes in that department is the main reason. So, yet again, the team are reviewing the aero operations again and come hear with a heavily revised package. The early signs in last weeks test were not good as their times were very slow compared to the others present. Of course the main event will still be the Renault vs. Ferrari battle and indeed if McLaren can make it a three way fight. Ferrari deserve credit for improving their car and not allowing Renault to finish of the Championships very early. On the face of the results at Indy they should be favourites for this race, such was the margin of victory, but Indy should not be taken at face value. The nature of the track is not suited to Michelin tyres, and while we saw no repeat of the 2005 farce, that was only because they had to opt for a very conservative tyre and that tyre was no match for Bridgestone who, along with Ferrari, have always been very competitive on the IMS. Alonso only finishing 5th will have got the Schumacher fans dreaming of a late season surge for the title but they are likely to be rudely awakened from that dream come Sunday afternoon. While Indianapolis is very much Ferrari and Bridgestone territory, Magny Cours is Renault and Michelins domain. The French GP with a French manufacturer on French tyres, two national institutions on home soil. Failure is not an option. It is true that Schumacher pulled of a surprise win here in 2004 but that was the result of a daring 4 stop strategy which caught Renault of guard and they are wise to that tactic now. Alonso has been on pole here for the last two years and after being mugged in 2004, was imperious in 2005 with a flawless performance which saw him lead every lap of the race. Given the form he was showing pre Indy it is not unreasonable to expect something similar this weekend. The key to performance here is tyres and how they cope with the very smooth but high wear surface. The track temperature is also prone to big fluctuations depending on the amount of sunlight hitting it. This is less likely to bother Renault as they have a package that seems to have a very big sweet spot and can cope well with changing conditions. His cause will also be aided by having the new spec Renault engine which Fisichella used in America. That was the first race that the Italian really was the faster Renault driver all weekend, which suggests that this new engine is a considerable improvement. Renault will have targeted this race as a must win event and they are strong favourites to do so. Ferrari were impressive in the Jerez test last week with Schumacher setting the best time of the week, but he is well aware that Indy was a one off and that Bridgestone will not enjoy the same huge performance gap that he had in the US. This years Bridgestone should be more competitive than in years gone by as they no longer struggle with high temperatures, but whereas Renault have this big sweet spot, Ferrari have to get everything right if they are to be able to compete with them. With the home team being so strong here, I feel that Schumacher will have to settle for something less than victory this weekend. If Schumacher is to win this years title he not only has to start beating Alonso but needs Raikkonen to do likewise, and there are signs that the Silver Arrows is now ready to challenge for race wins. Raikkonen was a big threat to Alonso in Canada until a clutch problem ruined his chances. He set fastest lap in that race and repeat of that performance will put him in with a good chance. All things considered, we should have a very interesting fight at the front of the field but the home advantage/incentive for Renault/Michelin suggests that they will be the strongest package. Alonso was trading at odds against on Betfair earlier in the week and I had hoped that the bookies would have followed, but sadly common sense has won out and his odds are generally around the 4/5 mark and shrinking. I had considered a large bet on him (hovered up as much of the odds against as possible) but having looked at the wider market, I have to say that the standout value lies with Kimi Raikkonen. He was so close in Canada and in the USA had opted for a 1 stop strategy, which would have interesting had he not been one of the first corner casualties. It would not have been enough to beat Ferrari, but very probably Alonso. So, with the two cars now looking pretty close, on the same tyres and with both drivers of the highest ability, odds of 4/5 on one and 10/1 on the other look wrong. Alonso looks about right but Raikkonen should now be nearer half his odds at most. It could be that Schumacher will be the driver to lose out to the two Michelin teams this weekend. 3 points e/w Kimi Raikkonen to win outright @ 10/1 with SportingOdds. lost 6 points The Finn also looks decent value to set fastest lap of the race. 2 points Kimi Raikkonen to set fastest lap of the race @ 6/1 with Ladbrokes. lost 2 points The short pit lane at Magny Cours means that the penalty for extra pit stops is much smaller than at most tracks and explains why Ferrari were able to pull of their spectacular 4 stop coup in 2004. This year it will be interesting to see if anyone tries a 4 stopper, but the more usual strategy will be 2 or 3 stops. My guess is that with overtaking difficult here, the top drivers will all qualify on low fuel to try and get on the first row or two and then be flexible as to whether to do 2 or 3 stops. Picking the winner in qualifying is never easy with the question marks over fuel loads but Alonso is a worthy favourite on current and past form. The McLarens have not been as good in qualifying as in the races, Schumacher will be thereabouts but for a real outsider we must have a little interest in Trulli. A master of the qualifying format, he likes the track and put it on the front row last season. The Toyota is improving nicely and you can almost guarantee that they will be pretty aggressive in qualifying in order to get Trulli well up the grid and run a 3 stopper. This not a track were drivers can hope to fuel up and run a 1 stopper as the lighter fuelled cars are at not suffering such a big time loss while refuelling, so we might just see Trulli really having a go rather than just getting into the top 10 and then fuelling up. 1 point e/w Trulli to set fastest qualifying lap at 80/1 with Hills, Ladbrokes, Coral, Skybet. lost 2 points (4th D'oh!) |
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