The Story so far…… Back to Europe of the real meat of the season with seven races at the more historic and traditional F1 circuits. Perhaps this is time to have a look at where the teams are and where they might be heading. McLaren: Top of the pile and delivering on their early season promise to bring incremental increases of performance at every race. Much improved reliability and two great drivers. The title race is a match up between the two and despite Hamilton being in the ascendancy right now, Alonso is very close and sure to keep the pressure on the rookie. The double World Champion has been shocked by the speed of Hamilton (haven’t we all?) but perhaps he is now buckling down to the job in hand and getting into his fighting mode. He has had two very hard jobs to beat Raikkonen and Schumacher in the past two years, and this will be no different, it is just that Hamilton has the same car. Ferrari: The early season advantages have disappeared and the Constructors title looks lost already. The ‘new management’ is now under pressure to halt the slide and so far they have done little to inspire confidence. The news that team stalwart Nigel Stepney is facing a criminal investigation does more than suggest that not everything is sweetness and light behind the scenes. Rumours continue that the aerodynamic side of development at Ferrari has been hard hit by a serious mechanical failure in their wind tunnel and that there is a significant loss of staff in the aero department. Given the lack of a tyre war and a freeze on engine development, the performance gains in 2007 are largely aero based. This does not bode well for Ferrari. Raikkonen continues to disappoint, but it is a little early to right him off just yet. A good test at Silverstone and some changes to the car have rekindled his enthusiasm and the more ‘normal’ tracks coming up should suit the Ferrari a little more than the last 3. BMW Sauber: A very satisfying season to date for BMW. Points scored in every race and clearly the 3rd best car in F1. They are ahead of schedule as this year was supposed to be a building year, whereas they are now in the fight for podiums. They have a very strong aero team and first rate facilities which are only going to improve the car as the season goes on. Perhaps they will be able to match the pace of Ferrari by the end of the season? Drivers both doing well now after a poor start from Kubica. Renault: Beginning to sort out the cars lack of performance and likely to improve rapidly in the coming weeks. The biggest problem is the lack of talent in the driving department. Fisichella is good on occasions but he is no team leader and Kovalainen is a ‘normal’ rookie and will make mistakes. They have closed on BMW and with so much potential within the car, they should continue to do so. Maybe a podium or two before the end of the year. Williams: A better season is in progress and Rosberg is again showing that he is a real talent. The car is more reliable than last season (not hard) but still not bullet proof. Wurz has been a disappointment in terms of qualifying and as a result he cannot get into the points as often as he should. Needs to pull his finger out or it is back to test driver duties. Hard to see the car improving at the same rate as Renault or BMW and their battle will be to hang on to 5th place. Toyota: Underachieving again despite the best efforts of Trulli, who actually showed some fighting spirit in his battle with Webber at Indianapolis. The car is good enough for minor points but this is a team that just doesn’t seem to have the ability to make the most of their huge resources. Ralf Schumacher has been little short of disgraceful in 2007. He will be dropped at the end of the year, if not before. The question is, does he care anymore? He is loaded and if he doesn’t want to be a success, he won’t be. Red Bull: Possibly more disappointing than Toyota. Reliability is dire, Coulthard simply cannot do qualifying and Webber cannot do racing. The car is likely to improve but will they start to put more of their resources into the 2008 car in the near future? It would be logical as this season is too far gone to do more than hope for 5th or 6th in the Constructors title. Super Aguri: Plucky under dogs who are doing a brilliant job. This team isn’t even two seasons old and has scored two points finishes. They can probably score a few more before the end of the season, but it still is a Honda B-team and as such is making up the numbers. Torro Rosso: Like their sister company, Red Bull, this team suffers from very poor reliability and a lack of quality drivers. Maybe 1 lucky points finish will be all that they can achieve. Honda: They are actually doing a good job……of making Toyota look good. At least Toyota have been in the points on 5 occasions, Honda have not even come close. Simply dire is putting it mildly. The much revised car is due out this weekend and in past years they have managed to drag themselves up from the floor, so we should seem them moving up the table, but a team like this should not been aiming to beat Super Aguri and Torro Rosso. Button has been particularly poor, finishing ahead of his team mate only once in 7 races. His stock is falling rapidly and he needs to start beating Barrichello and beating him well if his career in F1 is not to fizzle out.
Spyker:
Somebody has to come last and they are fulfilling
that role very well. Maybe Sutil will shine in a wet
race somewhere. This will be the last GP at Magny Cours and it will not be missed by race fans. It generally produces poor, processional races, unless it rains. The weather forecast is suggesting that it will, but time after time, and often at Magny Cours, do we get wet weather forecasts and dry races. All the forecasts are predicting a cloudy weekend and over the last few days the chances of rain have increased. The west and north of Europe have seen a lot of wet weather this month and there is more on its way for this weekend. Of course, Magny Cours is more South Central France, and it is not totally clear if the bad weather will reach that far south. So we have the age old F1 betting dilemma of whether to adopt a shotgun approach and back a few big priced outsiders and hope that the rain comes and turns the race into a lottery, or hold fire until the morning of the race in case it turns out dry. Experience has taught me that it is usually better to wait, even if there are a few very big prices on some proven wet weather drivers. There is one bet that would be enhanced by a wet race, but looks worth a modest punt even if dry. He may be the biggest waste of space on the grid but Ralf Schumacher does have a very good record on this track and Toyota have enjoyed some success here in the last two years. When he puts his mind to it Ralf can be a pretty good driver, it’s just that he rarely bothers these days. Perhaps his positive mental association with Magny Cours might just rekindle his passion. In his better days he has had two pole positions, a race win and only once failed to finish in the top 7. The car is capable of scoring points, but it is Ralf’s poor qualifying that is the problem. He needs to get it close to the top 10 on the grid, but the odds are big enough to hope that he will have a good weekend on his strongest track. 2 points Ralf Schumacher to finish in the points@ 7/2 with BetDirect. lost 2 points With the forecast so uncertain, there is no point in putting up any other recommendations at this stage. There may be an update on Thursday or Friday, otherwise the next update will be 30 minutes before qualifying. |
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