French GP – Sunday Update. Will it or won’t it rain? There was a sprinkling early this morning but both the F3 and GP2 races went off in conditions that did not require rain tyres, and to be honest, the slight dampness made little difference. The rain fall radar does show a large band of light to moderate rain across central France, but the emphasis is on light and it is passing through and may have cleared the Nevers area even before the start of the race. It is a hard call to make, but my best guess is that while we may well see some rain, it is more likely to be light and patchy and not a full blown wet race, but it could well be that it will swing from wet, to drying and back to wet and would produce some strange results. I must admit to having a few little tickles on Fisi, Button, Barrichello and Ralf at big odds on Betfair, just in case, but no more than small stakes. As I write, the Porsche race is running on a damp track following a shower just after the GP2 race, but the track is certainly not soaked and will dry quickly. Now looking at some close ups of the track, and perhaps it is wetter than I thought, on certain parts anyway. A dry line is appearing half way through but one car has just dropped a load of oil on the track, for about 1/3rd of the track. How they will clean that up in the rain I do not know! (Race stopped early due to dangerous conditions due to oil/water mix). All I can say is things could go either way and betting with confidence is difficult. Hopefully it will be an entertaining race, but stakes should be kept small.
I was impressed with Renault yesterday, the car was
always going to improve at some point and it seems
that it is on the cusp of being 3rd
quickest. Not much between Fisichella and Kubica and
I just have the impression that Renault are running
quite heavy on fuel. Fisichella’s smooth driving
style has served him well in past wet races and on
this very slippy track he has to have an advantage. 1 point Fisichella to finish on the podium @ 6/1 with ExtraBet. lost 1.5 points Heidfeld is interesting. Slower than Kubica for only the 2nd time this season and while many will think this is due to his bad back giving him problems, I believe it is because he has taken a gamble and set the car up with more downforce as he is expecting rain. If it is, it could be an inspired gamble and we should jump on his band wagon. 0.5 point Heidfeld win @ 100/1 with SportingBet 1 point Heidfeld to finish on the podium @ 8/1 with Ladbrokes, Extrabet, Paddy Power 0.5 point Heidfeld to set fastest lap @ 50/1 with Paddy Power, Stan James. lost 2 points Adrian Sutil was mighty impressive in the wet practice at Monaco and remember that this is the old Jordan team who always excelled in wet races (all their wins were in the rain if my memory serves me well, inc. Frentzen here in 1999). If they have a sniff of rain they will have set the car up for it and filled the tanks to full, they have nothing to lose. 1 point Sutil to finish in the points at 40/1 with Ladbrokes. lost 1 point A couple of small match bets to consider. 3 points Hamilton to beat Massa @ 11/10 with Sportingbet 3 points Fisichella to beat Kubica @ 11/10 with Ladbrokes lost 6 points If we have slippy conditions there are two drivers who I would not like to be on, Massa and Kubica. Both have improved their rather aggressive turn in styles but they are not in the same league as Hamilton and Fisichella when it comes to smooth inputs. In dry conditions, both these match ups are viable, in low grip conditions, the underdogs should in fact, be the favourites. very late update - Rain at track has stopped as of 1 hour to start. Track drying and radar says weather moving away. You may wish to consider this before placing any of the above bets. |
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