Formula 1 – 2007 Season Preview. Schumacher 150/1 for the World Drivers Title? Yes indeed, but don’t make the same mistake as Toyota and mix up your Ralf’s with your Michael’s. F1 2007 style has a very different look to it and the biggest change is the absence of Michael Schumacher, the most dominant driver in the history of F1. Despite his absence, Ferrari remain the very hot favourites for both titles. Can this possibly be justified? On the plus side Ferrari clearly have a very good car. Judging teams potential from winter testing may not be an exact science, but you won’t find many people who will not say that Ferrari will start the season with the fastest car. There were some negative comments when the car was first unveiled, that the wheelbase was to long and that the design was surprisingly radical, but that criticism was soon silenced. Another big change for 2007 is that Bridgestone is now the sole tyre supplier and Ferrari, with their long working relationship are bound to enjoy an advantage over its major rivals, who are all having to adopt to a new supplier having been Michelin runners for the last few years. Ferrari have replaced Schumacher with the (Vodka and) Iceman, Kimi Raikkonen, regarded by many to be the fastest driver in F1, perhaps faster even than Schumacher. In the other car (no team orders at Ferrari anymore) is Felipe Massa, perhaps not held in the same esteem, but none the less, a much improved driver in 2006. On the face of it, Ferrari look in a very good position to achieve what Schumacher failed to do for the last two seasons, win a World Title. This is the bit that I start to think that something is wrong, Schumacher has gone, the greatest living F1 driver has retired, but Ferrari is now odds on to win the Constructors title and its drivers look likely to start the season as first and second favourites to win the Drivers title. I would have thought that losing Schumacher would have put a dent in their chances. Of course it is just not Schumacher who has gone, far from it. The Ferrari management profile looks very different from the one that made won them 5 Drivers and 4 Constructors Titles, the ‘dream team’ has been broken up. The second most important man in Ferraris glory days is Ross Brawn, but he has chosen to take a year out of F1, perhaps never to return to Ferrari. Brawn’s influence should not under estimated, he was the technical director and the brains behind the often brilliant race strategies. Like Schumacher he will be impossible to replace. The chief engine designer has moved to work for the Fiat group and Nigel Stepney, the race technical manager responsible for overseeing the cars reliability has been moved to a factory based role. It was widely reported that Stepney was unhappy with the new arrangements and that he wanted to take sabbatical, but Ferrari are keen to keep him away from other teams for as long as possible. Not the best of situations. In F1, continuity is an important factor in a successful team. People take time to adapt to new roles and environments and to reach their maximum potential. Ferrari is now facing the greatest level of change that they have seen in a very long time. It is true that most of the change involves promotion from within and that is better than bringing in people from outside, but the fact remains that those people who have been promoted, now have the burden of responsibility. In the past one of Ferraris greatest weaknesses was political in-fighting and a certain amount of buck passing for failure. Now that the management has lost much of its British flavour and been replaced with a very Italian line up, you have to wonder if a return to the bad old days is possible. If things get tough, will the new management team be as robust as the ‘dream team’? And what of Raikkonen as a replacement for Schumacher? He is fast, yes, but that is just part of the job of the modern F1 driver. The car needs to be developed over a season and the driver has a role in that development. Schumacher was without peer in this respect and earned the undying respect of his engineers and mechanics for his tireless work. Raikkonen on the other hand is regarded as one of the laziest drivers in the sport. Blessed with a great talent to drive a car very fast, but with little in terms of technical knowledge or input. He drives the car, mumbles a few words and is out the door A.S.A.P.. A very different character to Schumacher. Will be able to inspire or lead the team in the same way as Schumacher, not a chance. Ferrari should hit the ground running and could dominate the opening two or three races, but as the season goes on I have my doubts that they will be able to maintain a sufficient level of development to keep their main rivals at bay and will end the season empty handed once more. If not Ferrari, then who? Renault have cleaned up for the last two seasons, but a little like Ferrari, they have very different look this year. Gone is Alonso, Schumacher heir apparent, and the best driver in F1. Renault was always going to struggle to replace such a talent and indeed they seem to have thrown in the towel by re-signing Fisichella to lead the team. Fisichella can do a reasonable job in F1, but he is no Alonso. He was a good number 2, but a World Champion? No way, not unless Renault come to the season with a car with a significant advantage and it appears that they are going to Melbourne around 0.5 seconds of the pace. Renault were very much Michelins main team and the switch to Bridgestone has been a big problem for the reigning champions. The early tests saw Renault struggling, but they are coming to terms with the new rubber and real progress was made in the final tests in Bahrain. Rookie driver Hekki Kovalainen has a nice car for a debut season, but he is no Alonso and faces a learning year. He has been test driver for the last year so he is well settled in the team and some observers are saying that he may well end up as the leading Renault driver by the end of the season, finally bringing to an end Fisichella’s dreams of ever winning a championship. Some race wins are possible when they figure out the Bridgestones, but without Alonso the Championship looks set to move to another team this season. Leaving double back to back Champions Renault for a McLaren team that failed to win a race in 2006, is something of a risk for Alonso. The British team have developed something of a reputation for underachievement in recent years and have not won a drivers title since 1999, despite being very well resourced. They also lost the services of design guru Adrian Newey in 2006 and have to adapt to Bridgestone tyres. He has taken a gamble, but Alonso looks like the key that will finally unlock McLarens potential, in much the same way as Schumacher’s move to Ferrari did for the Italian team. Testing in recent weeks has seen McLaren a little behind Ferrari, but the most important outcome of testing is that they have a car that is reliable. Traditionally McLaren have been let down by unreliability and the 2005 car should have won titles, but for too many breakdowns. Last years car was more reliable, but speed was sacrificed to achieve this. Finally it appears that they have speed and reliability…and now a driver that will push the development forward. The recent pairing of Montoya and Raikkonen was sexy in balls out fast driver way, but pretty shit when it came to driver feed back. Alonso is very much in the mould of Schumacher, a hard worker who will not only drive the car, but the whole team, to the limit. It is very unusual for a top team to go into a season with two new drivers and for McLaren to do it, and with one of them a complete F1 rookie, is unheard of. It is compliment to Lewis Hamilton that he was chosen to go straight into the race team rather than as a test driver role for a year. Hamilton has all the hallmarks of a future champion, but this season he will not be expected to do anything more than score podiums, maybe a win or two, and keep Alonso on his toes. This looks like the year that McLaren finally get it all together and land at least one title. With so much change in the leading three teams, the 2007 season should be an opportunity for the chasing pack to make big in roads and win some races, but who might come out of the pack? Honda ended the 2006 in great form, with Jenson Button scoring more points than any other driver over the last 6 races. However, it appears that Honda have mad a step backwards over the winter and designed a car that is not working as planned. There is a sense of mild panic that they are going into the first race of the season with a car that is not expected to qualifying in the top 10 and that will require a major revamp of suspension and aero parts before the second race in Malaysia. If this planned redesign does not work, then the team are facing a very difficult season and any slim title hopes will have vanished. One of the new regulations for 2007 is that engine design is frozen and this may hurt Honda more than most teams as engine development was always a strength of the team. Also the fact that most teams will now be running seam-less shift gear boxes means that their advantage in this area will be wiped out. The change from Michelin to Bridgestone is another negative. All things considered, Honda do not look like a team who are about to close the gap to the top teams. The less said about the new paint job the better! The dark horse that has emerged from winter testing is BMW-Sauber. Perhaps this is no surprise as the team managed 5th place in its first year, quite literally a building year as the Hinwil factory had to be expanded to accommodate the ever growing workforce. The team is still growing but is now nearer were it wants to be. The marriage between Sauber and BMW has been a huge success and its full potential is still some way off. The Sauber wind tunnel is still the best in the business and is now augmented by a new Super Computer built by Intel, which is said to be the worlds third most powerful computer. This will give a further boost to the aerodynamic development of the car and in a season were no gains can be made from engine development or tyres, aerodynamics will be the battlefield on which this seasons title race will be fought. The future looks good for BMW Sauber and winter testing have seen the car rated as just a little behind Ferrari and a match for McLaren. Reliability has been very poor however and the gearbox seems to be the problem. The team has not completed much in terms of run long testing and go to Melbourne under prepared. Once this gearbox problem is over come, Heidfeld and Kubica can start aiming for podiums and perhaps a win or two will this season. Kubica is much talked about as the next big thing, but I suspect that the more experienced and very under-rated Heidfeld who will spearhead the teams challenge. He out qualified Kubica 5-1 and the young Pole does make a few too many mistakes in his races. Early season testing saw Kubica struggling to adapt to the Bridgestone tyres, but he appears to have overcome this problem. Third place in the Constructors Championship may be too much to ask for if Renault sort out their early lack of pace, but it is not out of the question. Just behind BMW in 2006 was Toyota, a team that sets the standards in terms of under achieving. All that money and so little to see for it. I guess the writing was on the wall when they signed up Ralf Schumacher for $25 Million a year for 3 years, only a case of mistaken identity can explain this. In 2005 it seemed they were going the right way and that a win would come soon but along the way they sacked chief designer Mike Gascoyne and have never looked forward since. Last year they switched to Bridgestone rubber and came up with a car that was slow and unreliable. Winter testing suggests that things have not improved….not at all. All the usual promises about progress will be made and a mid-season revamp will solve the problems, but it won’t make a lot of difference, the car has been born a dog and will most likely remain so. Holding on to 6th place in the Constructors Championship looks like being a tough task with a rejuvenated Williams and the ambitious Red Bull both expected to make a step up in class. I have been predicting the demise of Williams for the last few seasons and have to say that I was correct in doing so. From scoring 144 points in 2003 they have slipped back every year, ending up with a pathetic 11 points in 2006. That is the level of a minnow team, not the once great world champions. Extinction is still a real possibility but there are signs that 2007 might see a return to respectability. The team has suffered from a lack of continuity, especially in the aerodynamic design office. There have been changes yet again but this time it has been bringing in good people from Renault and McLaren and they appear to have come up with a car that is reasonably quick and also one that is reliable. A big managerial reshuffle has freed up Sam Michael to concentrate on reliability and Rob Nelson has been brought in from Renault to engineer the race team. Even Patrick Head has moved house to be near the factory for a more hands on role in engineering. Too much change in a winning team is bad, but in a failing team it is vital, and Williams was failing. If this reshuffle works, and it looks good on paper, Williams really should be looking at a return to the top 6 teams. The Toyota engine should be reasonable, they already have a year with Bridgestone tyres and they have promoted Alex Wurz from test driver to race driver. Wurz will surprise a few people this season, and he knows how to develop a car. Rosberg is another of the bright young things, but with a seasons experience under his belt. This is the season we will find out how good he really is, and to beat Wurz, he will have to be. This is also the year we find out how good Red Bull are going to be. This year is the year that they have to start delivering results. They have spent the last couple of seasons recruiting top quality staff and the result is the RB3. The fact that they have dropped Ferrari as engine supplier in favour of Renault is another plus. Adrian Newey was the biggest coup in terms of recruitment and a lot is expected of his first non McLaren for many years. Mark Webber has been brought into to beef up the driver strength with the result that the youth orientated Red Bull now has the oldest driver line up on the grid. The signs from winter testing are not good. Reliability has been poor, the pace slow and already the teams spin doctors are trying to downgrade expectations. Coulthard and Webber are having difficulty fitting comfortably into the cockpit and the tightly packaged bodywork is giving over heating problems. Newey has a good reputation for designing fast cars but also very fragile ones. The fact that he has delivered a very sophisticated design to a very young team could be a problem. If a big outfit like McLaren have difficulty making his designs work, what chance a young and growing Red Bull? The potential is there, but when it will be realised is the big question. The team admit they are behind schedule so don’t expect to see them rattling the big teams just yet. The closed season news often featured stories of how Williams and Spyker were livid that Toro Rosso and Super Aguri were to be allowed to run what are effectively customer cars, straight copies of the RB3 and Honda respectively. On the face of it these customer cars should give Torro Rosso and Super Aguri a big performance boost and it is Spyker and Williams who have the most to lose. The reality is likely to be somewhat different. Scuderia Toro Rosso do indeed have a RB3 clone but with a Ferrari engine, not a Renault engine. Should be quick but it won’t be. The car is far to complex for a small team like STR to work with. STR will remain a bottom three team but may luck into a point or to over the season, despite a very weak driver line up. Super Aguri hasn’t even finished putting their new/old Honda together and the finished article will not be seen until a few days before the opening race. They do have some potential to move up the pecking order as Honda are under an obligation to its Japanese fans/customers back home, to keep Sato in F1. This little team is very big news in Japan and with more Honda in put, they could move off the bottom of the pile and score a point somewhere. With Davidson and Sato, they have a decent driver line up and it will be an interesting intra-team battle. That leaves Spyker as the tail-end Charlie's. Very little money, a car that is only a slightly developed 2006 model and, certainly in the short term, no hope of doing anything but prop up the bottom of the grid. To sum up, it looks like Ferrari will set the early pace but that McLaren, Renault and BMW Sauber will closed the gap when they are able to fully exploit these new Bridgestone tyres. That is when the season will get interesting, when Ferrari come under some pressure. I suspect that they will crack under a relentless Alonso/McLaren attack allowing the Spaniard to make it three in a row. There is little point in backing him now as his odds are very likely to drift after the first two or three races. 2007 Season Ante Post Bets 4 points Toyota not to have a podium finish in 2007 @ 7/4 with Ladbrokes won 7 points They had one lucky podium in 2006 and they could get lucky again, but there is no way they can do it on merit. 4 points Coulthard to score more points than Trulli @ 11/10 with SportingOdds. won 4.4 points Toyota look to be heading for another poor season and while the RB3 has shown very little so far, it has far more potential than the Toyota. DC should be favourite. 2 points Davidson to win Group E @ 11/2 with SportingOdds lost 2 points On further reflection, Super Aguri do look well placed to make a decent step up in class in 2007. The car will basically be last years Honda, a car that was very competitive at the end of 2006, fitted with a 2007 spec Honda engine and seem-less shift gearbox. Davidson will be at home in the car he tested extensively last year but will be disadvantaged by having to adjust to Bridgestone tyres. Once he gets dialled into the rubber he should be able to get this car into points scoring position on a few occasions. ITV commentator Martin Brundle had a test drive in last years SA06 fitted with this years engine, gearbox and tyres and was very impressed with it. He fully expects Super Aguri to score points this year. The main opposition in the group would appear to be team mate Sato, more familiar with the tyres, but not the car. Sato has some strengths as a driver, he can be very quick, but he is also very prone to mistakes and regarded as something of a liability to those around him. Their are quite a few drivers who will be very unhappy if the Super Aguri is good enough to get in amongst the midfield runners as Sato does have a history of driving into people. The two Torro Rosso cars could be quick as they are basically a state of the art Adrian Newey design with Ferrari power, but both those facts may not be as good as they sound. Ferrari customer engines have never brought great success for anyone in the past and the Newey design looks far too complex for a small team to operate. Add to this the fact that Liuzzi and Speed are very moderate peddlers. The fifth member of the group is Adrian Sutil, in the Spyker and a point for him looks very unlikely. One warning re this bet is that there are moves by Williams and Spyker to take legal action to have any points scored by both Super Aguri and Torro Rosso disallowed. Hey it wouldn't be F1 without a row would it? If they win that argument, the bet can't win (dead heat would be best possible result), but if Max 'n' Bernie say its kosher, well it probably is. |
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