European GP – Preview. As expected, Renaults run of victories was ended by Ferrari and Michael Schumacher at Imola, but it was a bit of a struggle and only a cunning strategy and perfect execution of the plan won the race. Schumacher is capable of winning races even in a car that is not the best, and Ferrari is certainly not a match for Renault. The main factor in Imola, was the track itself, it does not allow for overtaking and if you have track position, it is yours to keep. Schumacher could not have achieved his win anywhere else, Monaco excepted, and certainly not at the Nurburgring, scene of this weekends race. Normal service should be resumed, and perhaps Ferrari will be hoping for a podium, rather than expecting a win. The Nurburgring has a few overtaking opportunities and there is no way Schumacher could keep a faster Alonso at bay for more than a couple of laps. It is a circuit which allows the best cars to win and unless the weather throws a spanner in the works, the best car will win, and that is the Renault. As Alonso is in a different league to Fisichella, the Spaniard should repeat last years win. He has the added bonus of a new and improved Renault engine that will give a little more power and better drivability. The weather is hard to forecast in this part of the world, it is a mountainous region with its own micro-climate, but it appears that it should be dry weekend with temperatures ranging form 15 – 20 degrees on Friday and Saturday , with more cloud on Sunday, but a strong breeze that should be enough to keep any showers brief, if there were any at all. 5 points Alonso to win the European GP at 5/4 with Ladbrokes, BetFred lost 5 points His biggest threat should come from the McLaren duo. The MP4-21 has not set the world on fire, but neither is it a shitbox. Pre-season testing showed that it did have problems in the engine department, it was either blowing up, or running with the revs so restricted that it was just too slow. Mercedes have improved it and reliability has been very good, but it has still been under below flat out and the car has not been able to reach its potential. For this important ‘home race’, the team are still to make a decision on whether to give Raikkonen the new spec Mercedes power unit. He is due to use a fresh engine for this race and the new unit was tested at Silverstone last week, but there were enough problems to make its selection for the European GP a real gamble. Mercedes have their own grandstand at the track and it is a big race for the company. They crave a good result and in the recent past they have not succeeded. Last year it looked like Raikkonen would win until he flat spotted a tyre and the vibrations caused a front suspension to fail on the last lap. In 2004 both cars suffered engine failure, in 2003 Raikkonen suffered another engine failure while Coulthard crashed. Not good enough and you can understand the teams reluctance to risk another embarrassing failure. The logical thing to do is wait until the engine is 100% ready, they could get a podium with the old one, but this is the home race, the suits will be there expecting a bold race, not quiet acquiescence to Renault. I have no idea what they will choose to do, but their stated aim at the start of the season was reliability, they would have won last year had the engine/car been more reliable. If they stay true to that principle, the new engine will be delayed, and Alonso has even less to worry about. Ferrari did not show enough at Imola, a track were they are always at their very best, to convince me that they will be able to challenge Renault this weekend. They struggled with tyre wear on used tyres after the first set of stops. They played a good game, they knew that track position was everything and used new tyres to make sure of pole position and then used Schumacher's skill to do the killer in lap when he had to. The fact is that they are still not getting the most form the car and the tyres are inconsistent in the race and from track to track. A podium maybe, but Ferrari may have to spend the weekend trying to be 2nd best. Honda, oh dear, Honda, what is going on? The season is starting to unravel already. They have a car that flies when not burdened by a heavy fuel load. That is little use in a race, especially when even running a 3 stop plan, the pit crew then do a great impression of the Keystone Cops. Like Ferrari, Honda cannot get the best from their tyres and their race pace sucks. The gap from Renault, McLaren and Ferrari is getting bigger, and sticking the car on the front row is not going worry anyone on this track. As ever Button is a great bet for pole position, he continues to be the man to beat on Saturday, but in the race? No way Pedro. Jenson’s qualifying form figures of 3/2/1/2 suggests that he should be the favourite for qualifying, but strangely not. The bookies seem to get a mental block and only remember his race pace when they come to pricing up pole position and he is 4th favourite on some lists, which is just plain daft. Alonso could stick his R26 on pole at will, if he had to, but he doesn't have to. The Renault is such a strong package that the team is in a state of serenity, they have the luxury of being able to choose the prime strategy for the race, and usually that means carrying more fuel than the opposition in qualifying, happy to be further down the grid, but to pick up wins in the race. It is pretty incredible that Alonso has not even been on the front row this season, but is still the bookies favourite. McLaren traditionally qualify with a heavy fuel load and have only once had a car higher than the 3rd row this season, but Raikkonen is much the same price as Button. Montoya can be considered at 12/1 for pole, just in case McLaren decide to do a PR job and try and get one car on pole (Raikkonen is seen as the best hope for the Championship and likely to be run on a best race strategy basis). The Colombian has had the better of Raikkonen so far in qualifying this season (3-1 up on the H2H’s). Ferrari may be tempted to go low on fuel, but they will surely be better served by a good race strategy rather than a headline grabbing pole. Fisichella is capable of pole, but just as capable of failing to even get into the final qualifying session. The Williams are just about worth considering, and Webber has done some stunning times on this circuit, but the car is probably not good enough for more than a low fuelled 2nd row. Toyota may be tempted to go for glory, as they often did last season, and of course this is a sort of home race for them, but there is little evidence the car is fast enough, even on very low fuel. Button looks the call for small stakes. 2 points Button to set fastest qualifying lap @ 7/1 with Unibet Lost 2 points Toyota may not be good enough for pole position, but I do expect a good performance from the team this weekend. They will have somewhere in the region of 2000 guests and employees at the track as their base is in nearby Cologne. Much like Mercedes, Toyota will be keen to put in a strong performance. Ralf Schumacher loves the track (a win and four 4th place finishes) and cut his racing teeth here in his teens. The car continues to improve and Ralf was able to set the 5th fastest lap at Imola. Unfortunately, he spent most of the race stuck in traffic so the good pace was no use on that no overtaking circuit. With more opportunity to express his pace, good motivation and positive mental associations with this circuit, Ralf looks a good bet to finish in the points. 6 points R. Schumacher to finish in the points @ 5/4 with SportingOdds. lost 6 points Next update will be 30 minutes before qualifying, unless anything special crops up before. |
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