European GP – Sunday Update. It looks like we could be served up a classic this afternoon, with a head to head clash between the Old Master and Young King. At least that is how it appears to me, but the bookies have decided that its just a matter of Alonso turning up and cruising to a comfortable win. I could be very wrong, but quotes of 4/9 about Alonso look incredibly short. Just as Renault look to have a team that can put them under pressure, suddenly the bookies decide to make Alonso the shortest price he has ever started a GP. I wrote in my opening preview that Ferrari had disappointed me in victory at Imola, yes they won, but it was a good tactical win rather than showing a performance parity. Renault and most others expected this weekend to be about Renault vs. the upgraded McLaren, but it has not turned out that way. The McLaren seems much the same as the pre-upgrade model, flashes of great speed, but ultimately not on the pace. Instead it is Ferrari who have rattled Renaults cage. The performance levels between Schumacher and Alonso has been mighty close all weekend with the Spaniard getting pole by 2 tenths. A gap like that can be explained by 2 -3 laps worth of fuel difference. If Schumacher is carrying more fuel, then he can win, if Alonso is carrying more fuel, he will have another Sunday afternoon stroll to the top of the podium. We can only guess, but certainly Ferrari believe that Renault are carrying less fuel. They would say that of course, but there was a hint that Alonso was running lighter than we have seen so far this season in an interview/chat he had with one of the ITV reporters, were he said that he wanted to be at the front for this race and be able to control it. The only way to give him a good chance to do that would be less fuel. OK, he has a new spec engine, but that is said to be only a very small increase in power. The Ferrari has under gone a major revamp since the three fly away races, not least in the engine department . The piston head problem has been solved and the engine can now run at its full potential which is up some 80 bhp according to some observers. That is a huge jump in power and goes along way to explain why the car is back fighting at the front. The fact that Massa is 3rd quickest underlines that this is a improvement in the car, not just Schumacher being quick. The Bridgestone tyres have also proved hard to work in certain conditions and they are probably still the teams weakest link. Schumacher had big problems in the middle of the San Marino GP when he used a new set of un-scrubbed tyres which grained badly and nearly cost him the race. This track is different, the surface is less abrasive and the tyres will be different again. It was rumoured that Schumacher has chosen the harder of the two Bridgestone compounds which if true makes his qualifying time look a little better. We cannot be sure of how well the Bridgestones will perform over a race distance but they are not showing signs of concerns about consistency. It really does seem to hinge around fuel loads and how the two teams will play-out their strategy. Alonso is still favourite to win in my opinion, an odds on favourite, but not to the degree that the market is saying. We got a reasonable bet at 5/4 on Thursday, but the value now looks to lie with Schumacher and I recommend going in and backing Schumacher, and using the early bet on Alonso as a ‘saver’. 5 points Michael Schumacher to win outright at 3/1 generally available. (4.40 at Betfair and you might well get a little more). won 15 points Just as an additional note, the record of pole position drivers on this track does not make great reading for Alonso, just two in the last 10 years. The new V8 engines have had some early season reliability problems but the teams seem to be getting on top of them and on this low attrition track it looks like time to have bet on the number to finish. The first 4 races were bound to be hard on the cars with the new engine regulations. Barharain, first race and very hot, Malyasia, very hot and a lot of used engines, Melbourne a street circuit in cool low grip conditions (lots of crashes) with perhaps only Imola being a surprise with 6 mechanical retirements. The Nurburgring does not is not regarded as hard on cars and the attrition rate is normally very low, especially in dry weather that looks well set today. There is plenty of room to make mistakes and recover with the biggest danger of a big retirement rate being a first corner pile up. If we avoid that, I would be surprised to see more than 5 retirements. You can get 11/8 more than 16 to finish (up to 6 retirees to win) with Bet365 but I will be slightly more cautious. 4 points over 15.5 cars to finish @ 5/6 with Skybet lost 4 points Jenson Button has struggled all weekend and complains of not being able to find a good set up and low grip. If his recent race form continues he will do well to finish in the points. In the 4 races in 2006, he has yet to improve his starting position, losing on average nearly 4 places. Today he starts in 6th and is not bursting with enthusiasm about his prospect for the race, outside of the usual PR guff about ‘good race strategy’ etc. He looks opposable with Montoya. The McLaren is no great machine yet, but it does perform better in race conditions than in qualifying, exactly the reverse of the Honda. Outside of his retirement in Melbourne Montoya has always finished at least as high as his grid position and made places in 2. His 3 finishes average 4th place compared to Buttons average of 5.75. Button may have grid position advantage but Montoya is fancied to finish ahead, so long as McLarens Nurburgring jinx doesn’t strike! 4 points Montoya to beat Button @ evens with Stan James won 4 points |
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