European GP – Sunday Update. The weather looks set to be dry for race day, so there looks to be very little chance of rain causing any strange results. Hamilton has been passed fit to race and starts from 10th on the grid, but is stuck with low fuel strategy which will be a handicap against the heavier fuelled cars around him. He can make up some places in the early stages, but will find it hard if he gets up to the BMW’s and when he pits, it is likely he will then loos track position to cars he had just passed. It seems his run of podiums is about to come to and end. The battle for the win is perhaps not as clear cut as the bookies are making out and 8/11 makes little appeal. Alonso really should have pole position yesterday but for a hideous loss of control on his final lap which must have cost him a big chunk of time. He may well be lighter on fuel than Raikkonen, but looking at the Finns Q2 & Q3 time it looks like he is reasonably light as well. Massa is not out of it and his qualifying times suggest he is heaviest of the top 3. Certainly, at 5/1, he looks the best value of the top 3. The BMW Saubers were very quick and must be reasonably light to get that close to the Ferrari and McLarens. Looking at their race performances in some detail the correlation between their driver that qualifies fastest and who pits first is 7 from 9. The two instances were it did not work out were in a race were Kubica had to pit early due to accident damage and another race were they both pitted on the same lap. Other wise the higher qualifier always has pitted first. That means that Kubica is almost certain to be carrying more fuel. Certainly he was 0.2 seconds faster than Heidfeld in Q2 yesterday and he looks a good bet to beat Heidfeld for the third race in a row. 5 points Kubica to beat Heidfeld @ 6/4 with Corals. lost 5 points On the same logic, Kubica looks like he should be favourite for the ‘without Ferrari and McLaren’ market. 3 points Kubica to win w/o Ferrari and McLaren @ 2/1 with Skybet. lost 3 points Sato looks the man to win Ladbrokes Backmarkers group. I went for Davidson last time but it was Sato who prevailed for the 6 time in 9 races. That simple fact makes the 2/1 look too big. Davidson is just ahead on the grid, but the fact is that Sato is 7 - 2 up on Davidson this season and the British driver has been something of a let down, that or Sato is better than he is given credit for. 3 points Sato to win Backmarkers group @ 2/1 with Ladbrokes. lost 3 points |
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