Chinese GP – Preview. We can only hope that the shady characters who pull the strings in F1 have finally finished with their tinkering. They have succeeded in manoeuvring Schumacher and Ferrari right back into the frame and the bookies have dismissed Renaults chances of the constructors title, making them 7.50 shots despite Ferrari leading by just 3 points and 3 races still to go. Are Renault really that far off the pace of Ferrari? On the face of things yes. Since the USGP Ferrari have scored 81 points to Renaults 44 so the momentum is very much with the Italian team, but look at the picture in more detail and things are not so clear. Firstly we must consider that Renault was effectively derailed after the French GP by the mass damper ban. This will have forced a major rethink as to what way to develop the car and would have left them standing still while Ferrari carried on improving. But enough time has now passed for the Anglo-French team to find a new path and start getting faster again. Judging by last weeks test, they are definitely back on track. There have also been points lost, Alonso was cruising to an easy win in Hungary before a loose wheel nut brought his race to a close, resulting in a big fat 0 instead of 10 points. Alonso then finished ahead of Schumacher in Turkey, before being unfairly penalised after qualifying in Italy. Alonso’s pace in his last qualifying run, with badly damaged bodywork and a decent load of fuel on board was very competitive indeed. That was a track that was supposed to be very Ferrari friendly, so no wonder they called on their pals in the Stewards room to make sure Alonso was moved down the grid. They were worried that Alonso was real threat. In the end a very rare Renault engine failure removed Alonso from the equation, but not before he had moved himself up to 3rd form 10th. It may not be obvious, but Renault have not been getting hammered by Ferrari, but by a combination of circumstances which have masked their true level of performance. The Chinese GP is only two years old but is unique in that it is the only track on which Schumacher has never scored a point. On both occasions he has driven like a novice, making a lot of mistakes. No doubt he will be very keen to make his mark on this track before his retirement, but clearly there is something about the track that he does not like. Alonso on the other hand, was completely dominant here last year, leading every lap from pole position to the chequered flag, in a race that McLaren were expected to win (but not by me). The Renault was mighty here and with its great traction and power delivery at low revs, it should be well suited to the circuit this year as well. Michelin brought and new family of tyres to Monza last time out and they were giving much better first lap performance, which will make them very competitive for qualifying in China. Ferrari could find themselves under attack from not just Renault but McLaren as well. Kimi Raikkonen and his MP2-21 have shown great 1 lap pace this season, indeed he has 3 of the last 6 pole positions, but they have not been able to convert that into winning a race. That might yet happen but it seems that over a race distance, the McLaren is not as quick as Ferrari or Renault. Renault are bringing two brand new engine upgrades for the weekend, both are more powerful and driveable, and while one has extra grunt it is also the least tested. The team will not decide until the very last moment, but remember that they brought an upgraded engine here last year and it was both mighty and reliable. They also have a comprehensive aero upgrade being brought into play. The message is clear, do not under estimate Renault. The red cars are the glamour team, but the Renault people are very shrewd operators, resourceful and capable. Expect a very competitive showing. Alonso was seething at his treatment in Monza, but revenge is a dish best served cold, and Italy was 3 weeks ago. In my book he is driving better than Schumacher, who will be on a track on which he has struggled and in a pressure situation in which he has cracked before. The price is good. 5 points Alonso the win the Chinese GP @ 5.00 with Unibet. As mentioned above, the latest Michelin tyres are a good improvement over the 1st lap and Ferraris recent advantage in qualifying looks to have been lost. Even when they had an advantage, Raikkonen was still getting pole positions and he looks a decent bet to get another. His qualifying record at this track is good (2nd and 3rd) and with 3 poles in the last 6 GP’s in 2006 I would expect him to be favourite in this market, but the bookies give that honour to Schumacher (2 poles in last 6, and 6th and 20th here). I see no logic in the price discrepancies. 2 points Raikkonen to qualify on pole position @ 9/2 with Stan James. Robert Kubica was the driver of the day for me at Monza, but I doubt we will see him on the podium again this weekend. The very low downforce nature of the Monza track often throws up a surprise package, a car that improves unexpectedly in that particular environment. China may not be high downforce, but it is certainly is compared to Monza and I expect the BMW to drop back into the top 10 to top 6 region. The fact that Kubica has never driven at Shanghai will also hinder his chances. Jenson Button finished 2 places behind him, but 5th was a respectable given that the team had no running on Friday after the 2007 spec engine proved to be seriously flawed. The problem has now been identified and rectified so we should see a more powerful Honda for a track that Button has done well on in the past. The Honda has been turned around from its midseason crisis to a solid points scoring machine that may even have podium aspirations. The revs may not be turned up to full pelt mode as they will need for it to last for 2 races in order to qualify for the 2007 season, but the Honda/Button/Michelin combination should be strong this weekend. 5 points Button to beat Kubcia @ 4/5 with Boylesports. Nothing more of interest has come up since this mornings rather sterile Free practice session. Next update Saturday evening. |
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