Chinese GP – Preview. Last weeks weather forecast was spot on and the big odds were nearly landed, but in the end, Button was a little to desperate to take Heidfeld for 3rd and lost his race with that rash move. Sutil was robbed of a point and the fact that he got it back in stewards room later is no consolation to the punters! Still, it highlighted what can happen in the rain and I was somewhat shocked by some of the teams seeming to have less of a clue about the weather than we did. Reading today’s Autosport, it seems that Renault for example, cannot afford to bring their weather forecaster and just used what they could find on the internet!. Amazing really, all those millions of dollars to run a team, but they can’t afford the services of a weather forecaster for fly away races. This is something they may live to regret come this Sunday as the weather forecast is saying that another wet race is possible. There is a typhoon heading for Shanghai and while the race will not be hit by the storm itself, the rain belts preceding it do look like that they should be reaching Shanghai just in time for the start of the race. Friday and Saturday will not be affected, but there is rain coming, just a matter of when it reaches the circuit. It may arrive around noon, but the heavier stuff is later in the afternoon, so at the moment it looks like showers, rather than the constant downpour seen in Japan. I some respect, rain showers can but more of a randomizer than constant rain as it makes making a call on tyres difficult. A heavy downpour might get a few cars in for wets, others might gamble on staying out on drys, waiting for the track to dry. Certainly the ambient temperature will be high, so the track surface should dry out fairly quickly. Certainly, the predicted conditions for Sunday are enough to put me off having any bets on the race at this stage. It is simply too uncertain. Saturday looks to be fine, and with so many of the races this season being won from pole this season , this is the real business end of the weekend. The big question is to whether Shanghai is a Ferrari track or a McLaren track and it is hard to say. Certainly there are some very fast flowing bends (corners 5, 7 and 8) which will suit the Ferrari very nicely, but the silly set of very slow corners (1,2,3,4) will be McLaren friendly as will 11, 12, 14 & 15. The two long straights should offer neither an advantage, but at least they do offer overtaking opportunities. All in all, I would say that this track will not greatly favour one car over the other, not to any great degree like we saw in Spa or Monza. The Championship standings might have some influence on how the race is run. Lewis has very firm grip on the Championship now (1/33 with the bookies indicates as much). What he must not do is have a DNF. A top 4 finish would be fine. Of course he would like to get pole and race away into the distance and win the race and the title. He might well do just that, but I do not expect him to be trying any aggressive moves or getting into any scrapes with red cars. Alonso, 12 points of Hamilton, needs to beat his team mate by at least 2 points and he will have a win as his target. He has gone very well on this track, two poles and win and a 2nd place in the last two seasons, so he will believe that he can do it. He also knows that if he leans on Hamilton……well maybe Hamilton will just play hard ball. He can afford to give 10 points to Raikkonen, so long as Alonso is out of the race. Lewis did say in Japan that next time Alonso tries a move like the one at the start of the Belgian GP, he would just put him in the wall. So, Alonso need to dominate this whole race weekend if he is to have any chance of a third title. Raikkonen really must win, even second place would be a poor result. He knows this, his team knows this and they will have no option but to use Massa in any way they can to assist the Finn. That means that Massa’s chances of winning this race are dependant on Raikkonen’s performance. If the Finn is in contention for a top 2 finish, Massa will have to get out of his way. Qualifying is a different matter of course, he will be required to get his car in front on the McLarens, make life difficult for them and in a perfect world allow Raikkonen to build up a big gap. Of course this is harder to execute than plan, especially if the two teams are closely matched. They probably could ensure Massa gets pole, if they short fuel him, but he then has to let Raikkonen by without opening the door to the to the two McLarens at the same time. However, it is logical that Massa will be used in this manner. Get pole and try and get behind Raikkonen as soon as possible. He certainly has the ability to get pole having already scored 5 from 15 already this season. If the car is not out paced by the McLaren, he should have a decent chance of making that 6. 3 points Massa to set fastest qualifying time @ 4/1 with SportingBet. lost 3 points As I write the FIA kangaroo court, sorry stewards, are investigating Hamiltons driving behind the safety car in Japan. Torro Rosso are blaming Hamilton for Vettel driving into the back of Webber in an attempt to get Vettels 10 place grid penalty removed. It all looks like a load of bollocks to me, Vettel admitted he wasn’t looking at Webbers car, but you never know with the FIA these days. Maybe Hamilton will get a 10 place penalty, maybe at 100 million dollar fine, or perhaps just taken out the back and shot. Nothing would surprise me anymore, not with Mosley around. The story is enough to have some of the bookies just closing their books as a precaution. So no more bets at this stage. Better to wait until after free practice and to find out what Mad Max has planned. Saturday Update |
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