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Chinese GP – Saturday Update. Late update – it looks like the weather is going to be wet, so the bets below are GO..GO..GO! There is a touch of déjà vu about the situation going into tomorrows race, rain, will it come and if so will be just a few showers, or is typhoon Krosa going to drop a proper drenching onto the circuit? There is no way that Krosa will reach the track in time for the race, but the huge area of wind and rain spread around its centre looks very likely to hit the Shanghai area at some time on Sunday. The problem with storms is that they do not follow any set path and just when it looks like it was heading due north and closing on Shanghai ahead of schedule, Krosa decided to move to the west, keeping the bad weather at bay for a few more hours at least. The general forecast is for between a 70% – 90% chance of rain, but some are saying light showers, others thunderstorms and a few (myself included) seriously heavy stuff with strong winds to make it even worse. But it all depends on the course of the storm and as I write it is not moving the ‘right’ way for the nasty stuff I predict. That said, all the storm trackers say that when it hits mainland China it will turn and head up the coast in the general direction of the target area that is the Shanghai race track. I remain fairly confident that we will get the second proper wet race in a row. It would appear that the F1 teams are in a similar position to us punters, guessing the weather, but they had to place their bets before qualifying and it seems there is no universal agreement between the various teams. Just looking at the grid, you get the picture that something funny is going on. What the hell are Coulthard and Schumacher doing 5th and 6th? This does not compute! Perhaps the answer lies with the two cars in 8th and 9th, Heidfeld and Kubica. Has the BMW suddenly become slower than the Red Bull and Toyota? Of course not. The reason is the fuel loads. The two Beemers were over 2.25 seconds slower in Q3 than in Q2. Compare that to Hamilton who was just 0.01 seconds slower! It is always the same for the top two teams they are going for pole and are lighter than the cars behind, less than 0.75 seconds slower in Q3 Then you have the ‘interlopers’ DC, Ralf and Webber who were around the 1.50 seconds slower in Q3, and then the heavy brigade Heidfeld, Kubica and Button who were filling the tanks and were all over 2.24 seconds slower. The top 4 will be two stopping, or certainly a short first stint. The interlopers will be running deeper, but most likely two stopping, while the heavy brigade are planning just 1 stop. It is the heavy cars who have taken a gamble on the rain coming and that there will be plenty of it. The top 7 on the grid will be hoping that it will be dry or light rain at worse. If the weather watchers at BMW have got their sums right they look in a pretty good position. Beating the Ferraris and McLarens will be hard, but not impossible. Kubica was planning to run a 1 stop race in Japan and was racing Hamilton for position when they clashed and he was given a drive trough penalty. But for that he would have been in with a chance of a podium. Heidfeld had his race ruined when hit by Button as the safety car pulled off. BMW have nothing to lose, they are safely 2nd in the Constructors championship and Kubica only has Kovalinen to worry about for his 6th in the Drivers Championship. They can afford to go for an aggressive strategy and if the rain doesn’t come, so what, they have a bad day at the office and maybe only pick up 1 or 2 points. If they get it right, they can get a podium, maybe even the holy grail of a race win. Remember, in wet races, anything can happen, but they have prepared for the worst and hope for the best. We have to follow the brave gamblers! 1 point win Heidfeld @ 100/1 with SportingBet, 1 point podium @ 10/1 with Stan James, Ladbrokes 1 point e/w Kubica @ 125/1 with Hills lost 4 points Button does not have the car to match the pace of the BMW’s but he does an exceptional talent in the wet. He needs it wet of course and a slice or two of luck, but if it’s going to be wet you have a have a punt on Button. 1 point e/w Button @ 150/1 with Totesport. lost 2 points The Torro Rosso’s have been in fine form recently. Vettel was on course for a podium in Japan before his shunt and Liuzzi finished 8th. They were 11th and 12th in qualifying this morning, but Vettel’s luck just isn’t in as he has been given a 5 place penalty on the grid for blocking in qualifying. Liuzzi, just outside the top 10 and free to fuelled up to the hilt, might just get that point back (was stripped of his 8th in Japan by the Stewards) on Sunday. The worry is that the car will not be set up for a full wet race, so small stakes. 1 point Liuzzi to finish in the points @ 12/1 with Extrabet. won 12 points The Williams has been very strong recently, but completely off the boil here, they just couldn’t find a balance.Qualifying 16th and 19th sums it up. With Button looking a decent call to finish in the points and the bet void if neither team scores a point, Honda to beat Williams looks like a reasonable bet. 6 points Honda to beat Williams @ 4/6 with BlueSq. won 4 points |
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