British GP – Sunday update. The markets are suggesting that it should be a fairly comfortable win for Alonso this afternoon but it looks like a lot closer to me. We can only guess at the relative fuel levels, but the fact that the Q2 and Q3 times of each of the top 7 drivers were very similar suggests that they are relatively light, certainly the two BMW cars are going to be running deeper into the race and perhaps Montoya as well. The surprising things about yesterdays qualifying was the fact the Ferrari was only 3rd fastest after looking comfortably the quickest in the morning free practice and that McLaren suddenly came to life in qualifying. The likely reasons are fuel levels and tyres. Michelin teams will be using no less than 4 different compounds and which suggests that no one is particularly confident about which one is best or how the track will develop as the race goes on. Certainly the times this weekend are much slower than in the April test and the high surface temperatures are the probable explanation. It is possible that Raikkonen and Renault have chosen the softest Michelin compound, which will be faster, but less durable in the race. It is a gamble which may allow them to win if the tyres survive, or struggle if they do not. Bridgestone were also left scratching their heads yesterday and were worried that the softer compound would not last the long race stints. I am speculating that Ferrari decided on the harder compound which would explain the reversal of relative speed between the top teams. Pure guess work of course and working out the state of the ‘tyre war’ this season is incredibly difficult. We won’t really know until the race unfolds, but with the track being strangely low on grip this weekend, you help but feeling that the correct tyre choice will be the critical factor today. At least, for the first time this season we look like we could have a 3 way fight between the top 3 drivers in the top 3 cars. With Alonso having finished 1st or 2nd in all the races so far, he remains the favourite and the man to beat. The McLarens have usually been better in the races than in qualifying, so despite a pretty poor season to date, he may well fulfil his ambition to win at Silverstone. There is always the worry with McLaren that the car will break and there was a fuel pump problem on his car on Friday, but if the tyres are durable and the car reliable, Kimi might do it. Schumacher looked a bit disappointed with 3rd yesterday, but the team are confident that they have a good race strategy and that their Bridgestones give them an advantage later in each stint, something we have seen in earlier races and in Saturdays practice. If he can kept in touch with Alonso and Raikkonen he can reel them in later in the race, especially if he has a couple of laps more fuel in the tank. Of the three drivers, current form suggests that Alonso will win, but with two very strong drivers chasing him, odds on looks poor value. History is not on his side with just 2 Silverstone winners in the last 11 years starting from pole position. You can argue a good case for Raikkonen and Schumacher and at 4/1 and 3/1 respectively, they are more attractive betting propositions. We are already on Schumacher, and with this looking very open, I will just leave it be. The stars of the show so far for me are the BMW Saubers who are very quick on this circuit. They decided not to go for a crack at pole yesterday and have opted to run a longer first stint, carrying more fuel in qualifying. It is hard to see them getting a podium unless there is some serious attrition ahead of them but there is one more bet to be made on Heidfeld. 6 points Heidfeld to beat Rosberg @ 5/6 with Boylesports. won 5 points The BMW is simply a much faster car on this track by nearly 1 second in yesterdays Q2 and while Heidfeld will be looking for a top 6 finish, Rosberg will struggle to hold his position. The team have got both cars into the top 10 for the first time and they must have a reasonable chance of getting both home in the top 8. The longer first stint gives them the opportunity to make up places in the race and Barrichello and Ralf Schumacher are very beatable. 2 points BMW Sauber to have both cars in the points @ 7/2 with Skybet. won 7 points |
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