British GP – Preview. First up, we will get the weather forecast out of the way for the GP, hot and sunny all 3 days, so forget the myth about wet weather and Silverstone. The Silverstone track is a very good test of car and driver, setting a challenge to the engineers in terms of set up. Low drag is needed for the high speed sectors but the lap ends with a fiddly slow complex that requires more down force, so the set up is a compromise. In many respects the track is similar to Barcelona in terms of different types of corners and speeds. Certainly you are better looking at the results of the Spanish GP for clues, rather than Monaco which is not a great guide to any other track (Hungary possibly excepted). All eyes will be on Michael Schumacher this week after his disgraceful antics in Monaco qualifying. The British press have always had it in for Schumacher, ever since he did the dirty to ‘our Damon’ in Australia all those years ago, and now they have a nice big stick with which to beat him with. It will be tiresome for the German and it would put most drivers out of their stride, but dare I say he is used to allegations of ‘unsportsmanlike behaviour’ or indeed just plain cheating. Water off a ducks back and indeed he might well use it to motivate himself to greater efforts, just to shut his ‘enemies’ up. If we take the Spanish GP as a good guide to what might happen at Silverstone, it should be a titanic battle between Renault and Ferrari. In Barcelona it really looked like Ferrari had the race at their mercy, even Renault expected to be settling for second place, but come the race, the track had changed (Barcelona is famous for being unpredictable) and it suited the Michelin tyres and moved away from Bridgestone. Ferrari set the fastest lap, but after Alonso opened up a big early lead, Schumacher was unable to close it. The two teams continue to be the class of the field and Fisichella was very fast in the last Silverstone test, while Schumacher set an unofficial track record at Barcelona last week, with a time that left rival teams feeling sure that Ferrari would be very hard to beat in England. Barcelona saw Ferrari/Renault filling the top 4 places and a repeat of that would be no surprise. Unfortunately the bookies are wise to the fact with Alonso 6/4 favourite and Schumacher best priced 15/8. Alonso is a permanent fixture on the podium, never worse than 2nd this season, and he knows that with a 21 point lead over the German, he can safely settle for 2nd place in almost every race form now on, using his early season dominance see him home against a faster car, much as he did last season. Over the last 5 seasons it is Ferrari/Bridgestone who has dominated at Silverstone, picking up 62 points with McLaren being next best on 46. After that it is a big drop to Williams on 19 and Renault on just 16. Obviously Renault have improved in the last 2-3 years but certainly Ferrari will be confident that they can perform very well at Silverstone, despite the fact they tend to do much less testing here than just about any other team. 6 points M. Schumacher to win the British GP @ 7/4 with VCBet, Ladbrokes, BlueSq. lost 6 points Qualifying has settled down in the last few races with Schumacher and Alonso having 2 poles each in the last 4, but there is a chance that we might have a different face at the front of the grid this weekend. Overtaking is possible at Silverstone and that may mean that the top teams concentrate on the perfect race strategy rather than securing pole. Certainly at Monaco, Barcelona and Imola, the major part of the perfect race strategy means getting pole as over taking is so very difficult on those circuits. Outside of the top two teams, it is Honda who has shone in qualifying. In the early part of the season it was Button who was flying, 1 pole and never outside the top 3 for the first 4 qualifying sessions. However, in the last 4 qualifying sessions, it is Barrichello who has taken the upper hand at Honda with a 3rd, 4th, 5th and 7th, beating Button in the last 3. This is a massive turn around for the Brazilian who was really struggling in the opening races. He now comes to Silverstone, a track on which he has excelled on in the past and one on which the fans will be expecting, or hoping, for his team mate to do well. They may well be disappointed. Barrichello has raced 13 Grand Prix’s at Silverstone and out qualified his team mate on 10 occasions, and they were pretty good team mates. He out qualified Schumacher 4 times at Ferrari, Herbert once, Verstappen once, Brundle once and Irvine once. Only Irvine and Schumacher beat him on merit in qualifying. Barrichello’s 7th on the grid in Monaco was hard to judge as he was carrying around 20 more laps worth of fuel to those cars in front of him. At Barcelona he was carrying more fuel than the 4 drivers ahead of him, 6 laps more than Massa, and 7 and 8 laps more than the 2 Renaults. On level terms he would have been threatening the top 3, and if the top team go heavy and it is the Honda carrying less fuel, he could be very close to pole. He looks worth a modest bet at a big price. 1 point e/w Barrichello to set fastest qualifying lap at 33/1 generally available. lost 2 points Button has done well in qualifying on home soil, 3rd in the last 2 years and there is the possibility that the team will go for an ‘aggressive’ strategy and low fuel him to get him up the grid to please the crowd/sponsors. The team cannot win the race so any headlines they make will be in qualifying. Certainly on level fuel loads, in the same car, on this track, I fancy Barrichello is the better qualifier. 3 points Barrichello to out qualify Button at 6/5 with Ladbrokes. won 3.6 points With Barcelona being a good guide to Silverstone, the one team who flopped spectacularly in Spain was McLaren. I expected them to be competitive and in fact there were lame ducks. Montoya failed to make the final qualifying session and Raikkonen only managed 9th, his worst performance of the season. Massa, in the second Ferrari was comfortably quicker and on a track that will suit Ferrari/Bridgestone, he should be once more. He has out qualified Montoya in 3 of the last 4 GP’s with the loss being in Monaco were he did not set a time, after really parking his car in a wall. 4 points Massa to out qualify Montoya @ 5/6 with Ladbrokes. won 3.33 points In the same theme of opposing McLaren after such a poor show in Spain, Fisichella looks a big price to beat Raikkonen. Fisichella was very quick here in the April test and was going very well here last year before a botched pit-stop robbed him of second place. He gave the Finn a thrashing in Barcelona and is favourite in my book to repeat the job. His, boss, Flavio Briatore has even tipped him to win the race! 5 points Fisichella to beat Raikkonen @ 11/8 with Boylesports lost 5 points The top cars are running reliably at this point of the season , Renault have had just 1 retirement (mechanical) and Ferraris only 2 DNFs were accidents, otherwise they are running with 100% reliability. So long as both can qualify in the top 10 they look a strong bet to finish with both cars in the points on a track that is low attrition (21% last 5 years). SportingOdds have Ferrari 2/5 to finish with both cars in the points and Ladbrokes quote looks far too big. 5 points both Ferraris to finish in the points @ 4/5 with Ladbrokes. won 4 points Massa set fastest lap in Barcelona and if the Ferrari has the edge over Renault as I expect, and Schumacher is controlling the race from the front, Massa might well be the Ferrari driver who has to be on maximum attack to try and put pressure on the Renault boys. In the last 6 seasons the driver setting fastest lap in Spain has also set it in Britain on 3 occasions (twice by the Ferrari second string), so he looks worth a small wager at a decent price. 1 point Massa to set fastest lap in the race @ 16/1 with Paddy Power lost 1 point Next update 30 minutes before qualifying. |
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