British GP – Preview. So what will be the biggest talking point at this years British GP? Lewis Hamilton? Possibly. The weather? Possibly. McFerrarigate? Probably. Mr. Todt has finally got a stick with which to beat his opposition, Industrial Espionage! Yes, a disaffected Ferrari staff member is alleged to have supplied McLarens Chief Designer with ‘technical information’ at the end of April this year. The Ferrari staff member has been sacked and the McLaren man suspended. All this is very embarrassing for McLaren on what is supposed to be their big weekend in the media spotlight with golden boy Lewis Hamilton. Now they will be fending off awkward questions about possibly benefiting from knowledge of the main opponents technical secrets. It will make no impact on this weekends race, but come the end of the season, and if Ferrari have not won a World Championship title, you can bet your last dollar that Mr. Todt will go legal to get McLaren disqualified. The FIA and Bernie now have a very big mess to sort out. Can you imaging the damage to the sport if Lewis Hamilton wins the World Championship, only to be stripped of his crown, all because a senior Ferrari team member went a bit daft after not getting the job he wanted and tried to get even by giving documents to an old pal at McLaren? That’s what we will be reading about this weekend and for the next few months and years possibly. As I said, it will not make a jot of difference to this weekends race and it cannot be said, even by the most ardent Ferrari fan, that the McLaren has become some sort of clone car. In fact the two cars difference is key to this race and the out come of the Championship. Ferrari’s design was considered radical at the start of the season, many thinking it would backfire on them. As it has turned out the design is very effective on some tracks, but a bit of a liability on others. Hence we have seen the pendulum of success swing from Ferrari, to McLaren and back to Ferrari. In very simple terms, the Ferrari is best suited to fast, flowing tracks were quick changes of direction are required. McLaren is strong on slower, twisty tracks. Silverstone is not a twisty track. Sorry Lewis. There is a twisty section of the track at the end of the lap, but Silverstone is mostly a very fast circuit and one that the Ferrari will suit very nicely. McLaren are making some aggressive noises, saying that their problems in France flattered Ferrari, and there is some truth in that, but the real truth is that they got thumped by a quicker car. Lapping at 0.4 seconds a lap slower than Ferrari is a big gap and it is hard to know how or why that is going to change on a track that will again suit Ferrari. Body language often tells you much more than what comes out of a drivers mouth and the ‘man watchers’ at Magny Cours will have noticed Raikkonen actually smiling, yes really, and there are photos to prove it. Kimi doesn’t usually do smiley in public and that he was so clearly delighted is bad news for McLaren. He said how happy he was after the recent Silverstone test, but surely that was just the usual PR guff churned out by the press I thought. Wrong! He was very happy with the work carried out on the car and it seems he has now the car somewhere very close to the way he wants it. If so, he really should start winning more regularly and why not at Silverstone. The car should be the class of the field and he likes the track (four consecutive podiums). His biggest threat should be Massa in the other Ferrari but he has never been great at Silverstone. It is telling that he has never out qualified a team mate ‘on merit’ on this track. He will need to be at his best to match a resurgent Raikkonen and sadly for the Brazilian he points gap between them is now only 5 points, not big enough for the team to say that he is the number 1 and for Raikkonen to support him. McLaren will hope to be closer, but they are now talking about defending their lead by maximising their reliability, rather than pushing the limits. And why not? They have a car that will be stronger on occasions and a very decent points lead over Ferrari. It is the red cars that will have to take risks and push everything to the limit. One push too far and one retirement, and McLaren will be comfortably ahead again. Ferrari has a mountain to climb but they should make a further ascent this weekend. Perhaps the biggest threat to Raikkonen will come from the British weather. Summer actually happened in April this year and we have now moved into autumn. At one point last week part of the Silverstone circuit was under water and a powerboat race was looking a better option. To say that it has been wet in the UK this summer is a bit saying the surface of the sun is quite hot. However, I am going to be bold and tell you that we will have a dry British GP. It will not be hot and sunny, it might well be cool and breezy, but it should be dry. With my recent track record of weather forecasting, you may wish to disregard this bold prediction! 5 points Kimi Raikkonen to win the British GP @ 11/4 with BetDirect, Boylesports, BlueSq, SportingBet. won 13.75 points Outside of the big 2 top teams, it is still BMW who are best of the rest, holding off the improving Renault. In the early season it was Heidfeld who was leading the BMW attack, but now that Kubica has got to grips with the Bridgestones, it is he who is getting ahead of Heidfeld (3-1 in the last 4 H2H’s). Heidfeld injured his back at the recent Silverstone test and it flared up again in France. The return to the bumpy Northamptonshire circuit will not do him any good at all and I fancy that Kubica will again be best of the rest. 4 points Kubica to win W/O Ferrari & McLaren @ 3/1 with Hills. won 12 points There will be a lot of bookies putting ‘specials’ for this race and they are probably going to be priced up by some underemployed soccer compilers, so keep your eyes peeled for errors that sure to be made. I may have additional bets later this evening, but that depends on how ‘thirsty’ I get after my game of golf! Sometimes I get so thirsty, my legs don’t work properly and typing is just a no no. Adding: 5 points Trulli to finish in the points @ 11/4 with Boylesports lost 5 points A bit late, but this is a cracking bet for those that can get on before they spot the error of their ways. Toyota had both cars in the top 5 today and Toyota engines powering no less than 4 of the top 8 cars, with Williams 7th and 8th. In the recent Silverstone test, Ferrari, Toyota and Williams did stand out as being quick. Today's free practice confirmed that this was not the work of smoke and mirrors. Trulli can almost be relied upon to qualify in the top 10 and, in my book he looks more like a 5/4 shot for a points finish. Next message 30 minutes before qualifying. |
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