Brazilian GP – Sunday Update. Karma I think they call it. What goes around comes around and it seems that all the ‘help’ Ferrari received in getting them into the title races as set off the balancing forces, and now they are having to pay back all those pleasure vouchers. What was one of the cornerstones of Ferrari success was bomb proof reliability, but in the last three GP weekends that strength has simply vanished. Massa had to change an engine in China, Schumacher blew one up in Japan, the Ferrari engine of Doornbos had to changed yesterday, Massa only just made qualifying well he needed and new gearbox and then Schumacher suffered a ‘fuel pump failure’ in qualifying yesterday. That is a very poor reliability record by anyone’s standards. Given the pace shown in qualifying by the two Ferraris yesterday, most people expect either Massa to win easily, or indeed Schumacher to carve his way through the field from 10th on the grid to win for the last time. I seem to be alone in thinking that it would be a major shock to see even one Ferrari completing this race and that the great pace in qualifying will disappear like Scotch mist when the revs have to be turned down to try and avoid the Ferrari from tearing itself to bits. The similar overwhelming qualifying pace shown in Japan resulted in an easy win for Renault. The Bridgestone tyres deliver massive one lap grip, but over longer runs, there seems little between them and Michelin. 1 point M. Schumacher to be first driver to retire @ 25/1 with Paddy Power 1 point Massa to be first driver to retire @ 28/1 with Paddy Power lost 2 points Schumacher will also face the prospect of having to pass both Renaults if he is to win and unless this can be done in the pits, he will find it very difficult. Fisichella will do his best to keep him back (which will probably be not very good) but Alonso has excelled in repulsing a Schumacher attack many times, I think he revels in the experience. It is Schumacher who has to do the passing now and he has to do it with no risk of a collision. Alonso wins the title if they were both to come off, so I would imagine that if Schumacher encounters Alonso on the track, he will find the widest F1 car in history. Anyone rushing to back Schumacher (at the terrible price of 7/2) also has to think of this scenario. Schumacher carves his way through the field and ends up behind Massa, while Alonso cruises round in a comfortable 4th place. What will happen? Will Ferrari tell Massa to pull over at let Michael take the win? I would doubt it, not with this being Brazil, not with Massa driving for the team next year and because I doubt Schumacher would want it that way. The only way Massa will cede to Schumacher is if Alonso is out of the top 8. Then and only then will team orders come into play (and fairly so). Massa then looks to be the man to back if you expect a Ferrari win. His fate depends on the car staying in one piece and what happens to Alonso. If the Spaniard retires or is out of the points, he has to find away of getting behind Schumacher. It could be a bit distracting for Massa if indeed Schumacher does make good progress through the field, he might just have start thinking about Schumachers race and track position, rather than just getting on with his job. His odds of 2.00 may seem attractive to some but I couldn’t touch them. History is not on his side either. The last pole position driver to win this race was back in 1999 and in recent history Brazilian drivers have struggled on home soil. The Demi God that was Senna did win twice, but it took until his 8th attempt, Barrichello has never won it despite having serious opportunities. Raikkonen has got himself on the front row of the grid practically unnoticed, but has dismissed his chances of winning, saying the Ferrari is far to fast to beat and he is on the second race cycle on his engine. However, if indeed Ferrari do suffer with further reliability problems, he must have an excellent chance of a win. There is also the chance that Massa will drive conservatively, backing up the field to allow Schumacher to catch up, in which case he could end up being passed by Raikkonen, a dangerous game to play. Take out Massa, and Raikkonen looks in a good position. Thankfully we are on at 12/1, so no need to take the best price 6/1 on offer now. I find it hard to see Trulli getting a podium on merit, that would go against past form and indeed Trulli may allow Massa and Raikkonen some breathing space if he starts his famous ‘Trulli Train’ again. Alonso is not in full attack mode but if he slips past Trulli early he has a decent chance of winning, Barrichello is a dark horse for the podium, Fisichella is suffering from being him, etc.. Ralf Schumacher and the two BMW’s should be scrapping for the final point or two. Button could yet fight his way into the top 8. He was very happy with his car, only for a wheel sensor to switch off his traction control system in qualifying. With that rectified he has the pace to get a point, maybe two. Barrichello should be looking at a top 6 finish at least, so Honda should realistically be looking at 4 or 5 points (something they have achieved in the last 6 races). This should be enough to beat BMW Sauber who are steady points scorers, but unless there is some very strange goings on, are really only good for 7th or 8th. 5 points Honda to beat BMW Sauber @10/11 with BlueSq won 4.54 points Barrichello has never enjoyed much luck here in the past, indeed he only completed a race distance for the first time in 2004! However, what goes around comes around and he is due a period of good luck on the track he most wants to win on. I cannot see a win but a good race is on the cards and I take him to finish ahead of the uninspiring Trulli. The Italian is the softest guy in F1 when someone puts a move on him, he doesn’t relish a fight while Barrichello will be dreaming of a podium in front of his home fans and family. 5 points Barrichello to beat Trulli at evens with Paddy Power. won 5.00 points. |
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