Brazilian GP – Sunday Update Another stunning qualifying lap from Hamilton, throwing a spanner in the works in terms of Ferraris master plan to lock out the front row. However, looking more closely at the Q2 and Q3 times, it is pretty clear that Raikkonen is sitting on a bigger fuel load than the other three cars around him. As a rule of thumb, cars are slower in Q3 than Q2, as they are running with a bigger fuel load. Yesterday we saw something very unusual in that Massa, Hamilton and Alonso were faster in Q3 than in Q2. Obviously this has to be down to the track evolving as more rubber went down, but Raikkonen was 0.161 seconds slower in Q3, compared to his team mate who was 0.443 faster. A gap of 0.6 seconds between the two more than suggests that Massa is much lighter on fuel than Raikkonen. Raikkonen did have a problem in qualifying when he caught Hamiltons car as the McLaren was exiting the pit lane, Lewis let him pass, but just by moving of line, it will have cost Kimi some time, maybe 0.2 seconds, but that still leaves a big gap between him and Massa. Expect Massa to be the first to pit, with Raikkonen around 3 laps later. This Raikkonen’s window of opportunity to pass Massa ‘in the pits’. Of course, with Hamilton splitting the two Ferraris, the execution of the plan has become more difficult. If Raikkonen fails to pass Hamilton on the opening lap he is likely to be stuck behind him until the McLaren pits, then the Finn has put in 2 or 3 killer laps to be able to come out ahead. Can he do it? I think so.Watching the practice sessions, it appeared that the Ferrari was the quicker car on the longer runs. It was struggling on the supper soft tyres which allowed McLaren to compete in qualifying, but come the race, the red cars look to be the car to be in. Of course there is a bigger picture here, the Championship. Raikkonen needs to win, but needs Hamilton back in 6th or lower and Alonso third or lower. The winning bit is probably the easy bit, Alonso 3rd or worse may well happen, but Hamilton 6th or worse, well that has happened only twice this season and they were both in wet races. As far as the Championship goes, Hamilton, with a points advantage and a front row grid position, holds all the aces. He just needs to keep out of trouble, stay ahead of Alonso (or not far behind) and he will be champion. I am sure he would like to take the title and win the race, but after the scare in China, I am sure that both he and the team will have their eyes on the biggest prize. Go fast, but take no risks. Denis has said Ferrari is the competition this weekend, but that is tosh. Beating Alonso is the number one priority and after that, a top 5 finish for the tile. That should be well with Hamiltons capabilities. I haven’t talked about Alonso much yet and that is because he looks the weakest of the big 4 this weekend. He has no excuses (but I’m sure he will make one up anyway) he was beaten by Hamilton on pure qualifying speed ( I suspect Alonso might actually be a lap lighter than Hamilton) and the Ferrari looks the quicker car. He needs to beat Hamilton by a 5 point margin which looks very unlikely and the Spaniard has admitted that he needs things to go seriously pear shaped for him to become champion. The only thing about Alonso that worries me is that he goes into loony mode at the start and tries to get to the front by some crazy manoeuvre at the first corner. Perhaps he might gain some satisfaction by putting his team mate out of the race and giving Raikkonen the title. It would be his little leaving present to Ron Denis. Not beyond the realms of possibility! Massa did his job perfectly yesterday, and no doubt a 3 year contract in his back pocket made his acquiescence somewhat easier. Of course it has compromised his race strategy and even if Hamilton looks to have the title won, it is likely that Raikkonen will have got ahead of Massa on track and the Brazilian will have to settle for a podium finish. All things considered, Raikkonen looks a strong favourite to win this race, but the title will have to wait for another year, and that might be about right, a Finnish champion in 12 months time. 5 points Raikkonen to win Brazilian GP @ 2/1 with Hills. won 10 points On the theme that Alonso may struggle to get a podium finish, that Raikkonen looks like a stronger favourite, it could be worth a few speculative forecast bets. 2 points Raikkonen – Massa straight forecast @ 5/1 with Hills won 10 points 1 point Raikkonen - Hamilton straight forecast @ 11/1 with Extrabet 1 point Raikkonen – Massa – Hamilton @ 10/1 with Ladbrokes 1 point Raikkonen – Hamilton – Massa @ 22/1 with Ladbrokes lost 3 points Outside of the big 4, Webber (and indeed Coulthard) showed great pace yesterday, in fact, Alonso might find himself worrying about keeping 4th place on lap 1. The Red Bull will be heavier on fuel which should be enough for Alonso to escape on lap one, but if the Aussie did ahead of Alonso at the start, he will be very hard to pass. With the BMW’s, Rosberg and the two Renaults looking to be off their best form, Webber looks well placed to turn a good grid position into decent points. Red Bull are just 4 points behind Williams in the constructors championship and with Coulthard also looking good for points, they could just knick 4th place in the constructors championship and there will be a few quid in that result. Good motivation in other words. Beating the BMW’s will not be easy but they have not been that impressive this weekend and the car has developed a hydraulic problem which puts doubt over their ability to finish the race. 2 points Webber to win w/o Ferrari and McLaren @ 4/1 with Ladbrokes. lost 2 points |
 |
|
|
Betting Previews
|
||