Belgian GP – Sunday Update. 1 point win Alonso @ 6.5 with ExtraBet An all Ferrari front row suggests that it will be Raikkonen winning here today, but Alonso was very quick as well, so it is not like he has a massive pace advantage. The record of pole position drivers here is not good (only 3 winners since 1991 I believe) and there is still some evidence that Ferrari are worried about something at the back of their car, Massa nearly didn’t get out of the garage for qualifying as the mechanics had to remove the rear body work to give something urgent attention. There were alos some concerned looks at the back of Raikkonens car in Q3. He looks far from an odds on shot to me. Alonso, not the most popular person in the McLaren camp right now, has the smell of title number 3 in his nostrils and looks to have the better of his team mate this weekend. Worth a small interest. 2 points e/w Kovalainen W/O Ferrari and McLaren @ 16/1 with Coral lost 4 points Double the odds of those offered by Stan James and I was considering 8/1. On the face of it, Kovalainen migt appear to have no chance. He is behind Trulli, Webber, Heidfeld and Rosberg, with Kubica 5 places back in 14th. However, the Renault is an extremely reliable car and on the that has gotten Kovy placed in this market 5 times in the last 8 races (inc. 1 win). The car is improving as is the driver with points finishes in 7 of his last 8 races. 9th on the grid looks like he is set for another top 8 finish at least and he does look to carrying a fair whack of fuel on board judging by the difference in lap times between Q2 and Q3. Kovalainen was very happy with his lap in Q3 , which reinforces the idea that he is going to be running a lot longer first stint than probably all the cars ahead of him. Trulli, with the terrible record of being so slow off the line should be passed on lap 1. Webber has over qualified the Red Bull once more and will struggle to keep his car in the top 8, Rosberg has been very impressive again, but will be lighter on fuel, leaving the BMW’s has the usual threat. Kubica has to start from 14th on the grid, but no doubt will carve his way up into a points scoring position, but he will be light on fuel, that much we could tell from his time in Q3. This might compromise his race strategy and Kovalainen has a reasonable chance of beating him. Heidfeld is the clear favourite and also looks to carrying a decent load of fuel. However, the BMW has not been quite as clear cut 3rd best car so far this weekend. The Williams and Renaults have been closer and of course Kubica had an engine failure yesterday morning. Heidfeld is using his Monza engine and there must be a worry at BMW that the Germans engine might just go the same way. Kovalinen and Rosberg both have new power units. Kovy looks a great e/w bet in this market. Good claims for a place, and a win is not impossible. 4 points Rosberg to win the Wacky Races @ 5/4 with Coral. won 5 points I was going to take Rosberg e/w in the same market @ 7/1 with Stan James, perhaps he is better backed in the Wacky Races. No Kovalainen in the market and so long has he has a trouble free afternoon, Rosberg should have the beating of Trulli, Webber, Ralf, Wurz etc. The car has been very quick on this track and Rosberg is now establishing himself as a real long term fixture at the business end of the grid. Talented and in a team/car that is on the way back to the top. 4 points Kubica to finish in the points @ evens with Totesport While SportingBets quote of 1.125 does look very short, the evens on offer from Totesport looks very large. OK, Kubica is starting from 14th on the grid and must make up 6 places to get his point, but he is in a very quick car and on a track that does allow faster cars to get past on the long straights. He has a fresh engine, so running at 19000 revs should not be a problem, others might have to have one eye on re liability on a track that is hard on engines. Liuzzi, Button and Coulthard should be gobbled up in a matter of laps, Trulli, a probably Ralf are there for the taking with the slow starting Toyota, and Webber will be hard pushed to keep in the top 8 based on historical form (only once in the top 8 and that was in the rain lottery in Germany). lost 4 points |
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