Bahrain GP - Sunday
Update.
Even if you haven’t had a bet, this looks like a race to savour, a potential classic. You can argue a decent case for any of the top four drivers on the grid and find attractive odds on three of them. The bookies favourite is Massa, best priced 2.81 with Extrabet and as low as 2.30. I have to say that I do not share their confidence in the Brazilian. Much is being made about the Ferraris being on the ‘clean’ side of the track, but to my knowledge, the Sakhir circuit has brought in vacuum sweepers to clean the track before the race, and I couldn't see any advantage in yesterdays GP2 race. If this is true then Massa has a problem on his hands as he has Hamilton alongside him on the grid. Hamilton has quickly established a reputation as a fast starter, not just fast, but smart and brave. Massa on the other hand has a reputation as being prone to mistakes and perhaps not so good under pressure. All you have to do is think back to last week when Hamilton made a monkey out of him. Massa appears rattled already, making comments about being more aggressive and not giving Hamilton any room at the start. It sounds like he might even attempt a ‘Schumacher chop’, but Massa is no Schumacher and could well end up making a mess of the start if he is so concerned about Hamilton. He also has to remember that Raikkonen and Alonso will be right there as well. Hamilton has had a great start to his F1 career, 3rd in Melbourne and 2nd in Malaysia. Could he continue the upward trend and score his 1st win? Possibly, but the biggest question marks about his chances relate to his fuel load and his engine. I have to suspect that Hamilton is carrying less fuel than both Alonso and Raikkonen. McLaren used him tactically at Sepang and I suspect they are looking to him to get ahead of both Ferraris at the start and handicap them by making them run in dirty air. Alonso, perhaps carrying a few laps more fuel, can then keep Raikkonen and Massa (probably light on fuel as well) in his sights and pass them all at the first set of stops. There is also some concern that Hamilton might have an impending engine problem as his car was blowing a little smoke in qualifying. His best odds of 4.25 with SportingBet are reasonable, but his odds to beat Massa look tempting. He is a better starter, a better driver and the cars are very close on performance. 3 points Hamilton to beat Massa @ 6/4 with Ladbrokes. lost 3 points Guessing fuel loads and strategy is just that, guessing, but the grid has a look that suggests to me that the juniors in each team are being used tactically. There may not be any blatant team orders in either team, but McLaren used Hamilton tactically last week and Alonso very much looks the team’s number 1 choice to carry them to the drivers title, for this season anyway. It also speaks volumes that Ferrari is paying Raikkonen at least 5 times more than Massa. They have made a major investment in the Finn and he is there to win races and titles, not to be beaten by Massa. In a nutshell, it looks the youngsters are running light, with the team principles looking to run a longer first stint and make up places at the first stop. Raikkonen or Alonso? Ferrari or McLaren? There seems little between the cars and both drivers are very quick. Ferrari does seem to have the faster car, but it also seems to struggle when following behind another car, as we saw last weekend. That is not great news for Raikkonen who may well find himself behind at least one McLaren after the start. Alonso is not double world Champion for nothing and like Schumacher, he can still win in a car that is not the fastest. If he is heavy on fuel, this race is very winnable and he can make it 3 Bahrain wins in a row. 2 points Alonso to win @ 7/2 with Hills, BetDirect. Further down the grid, things get very close between the midfield cars. Williams didn’t quite perform in qualifying once again, but they have looked a clear 4th quickest on longer runs. Renault are struggling and it was a great effort from Fisichella to get is car to 7th on the grid. Not only are they struggling for pace, they are struggling with reliability. Fisichella had to chance a gearbox yesterday and Kovalainen had another fuel pump failure. Williams have the race pace to beat Renault, and might even win by default. Rosberg likes this track having won his GP2 race here, scored his first F1 points here and set fastest lap. Wurz was very impressive in Malaysia last week, coming from 19th to finish 9th and starting 11th I fancy he will be able to move into the points. 3 points Rosberg to beat Fisichella @ 11/8 with Ladbrokes. lost 3 points 3 points Williams to beat Renault @ 11/10 with BlueSq. lost 3 points The Honda’s were as poor as expected in qualifying but there looks to be a bit of value in Barrichello to win the Backmarkers group with Ladbrokes. He has been faster than Button in both races so far this season and the others in the group look beatable. The Super Aguri of Davidson is ahead on the grid, but we have seen that their car is really not that great in race trim, while the hopeless Honda is a better race car than a qualifier. Sato is behind on the grid and the two Torro Rosso cars look to be really struggling. 2 points Barrichello to win the Backmarkers Group @ 9/4 with Ladbrokes. won 4.5 points |
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