Bahrain GP – Preview. After two races of the 2007 F1 season, bookies and punters alike have every right to feel confused. Ferrari dominated the first race, a clear 1 second faster than McLaren, a big margin. Then, in race two, McLaren dominate, a clear 1 second faster than Ferrari. It is not unusual for form to ebb and flow over a season, but it is to have such dramatic swing between two races, especially in the absence of a tyre war. The problem now, is trying to decide which of the two cars really is the faster. In Ferraris defence, they did go into the Malaysian race with one of their cars being a bit sick. Raikkonen had to run with a rev limited engine which compromised his pace. However, that doesn’t explain the whole story. What about the other Ferrari? Massa took pole and held the lead of the race for …oh, at least 500 metres, then he made a couple of mistakes and ended up a very tame 5th. Bad driving was a large part in his story, but again not all of it. Why was he stuck behind Heidfeld? This was a fully functional Ferrari, Destroyer of the Universe in Melbourne, now powerless to attack the 3rd best car. Very strange. There are various theories, all very complicated, but my own very simple one is that the advantage of being the car in front has never been greater. With the new harder range of tyres, the car has to generate more downforce to find the same level of grip. The aerodynamic sensitivity of these thoroughbred race cars is so great that in the dirty air they lose a lot of performance. Alonso made an interesting comment to the effect that if Massa had made a better start and led the race after the first turn “it would have been extremely difficult to follow the Ferraris race pace”. So, he implies that that Ferrari have the faster car, but if McLaren can get in front of them, then it is the Silver car who can dominate. Another theory is that the heat in Malaysia exposed a weakness in Ferrari that will not occur, or should not occur, anywhere else. Simply put, the Ferrari engine doesn’t like it too hot and in order to ensure reliability, they had to rev limit both engines and make ‘aerodynamic compromises’ to allow better cooling. The McLarens’ Mercedes engine used to suffer the same problem last year, but they have learnt their lesson and have a package that can handle extreme temperatures without compromise. This weekends race comes from Bahrain, a track set in a desert and deserts are usually very hot come the afternoon, so are Ferrari about to get spanked again? Cue the weather forecast! Saturday qualifying - 28 degrees, 60% cloud cover. Slight chance of thunder storms. Sunday race – 25 degrees, 30% cloud cover. Other forecasts have the temperatures around the 30 degree mark, so it looks like a hot weekend, but not as hot as Sepang and remember that Ferrari will have both cars running with ‘fresh’ engines and will not have to be quite so gentle on them. So conditions, while still not great for Ferrari, should allow them to be nearer 100% in terms of performance. McLaren insiders are reported to estimate that in ‘normal’ conditions that they are still 0.4 seconds off Ferrari over a lap. To help close the gap, there will be further new parts brought here with the aim of finding another 0.1 to 0.2 seconds. With conditions slightly hampering Ferrari and McLaren making improvements, it looks like it will be very close between the big two this weekend, but Ferrari should just hold the upper hand, by around 0.1 to 0.2 seconds perhaps. Not enough to win if McLaren get in front and mess up the aerodynamic performance. Qualifying will be important, but as we have seen in the first two races, Hamilton is a bit of a magician off the line and McLaren have been quick to use him as a tactical blocker. He has qualified both races with more fuel than his team mate and still made up places at the start. In Malaysia he certainly appeared to allow Alonso to build up a good lead by holding up Massa and Raikkonen. He was able to secure his 2nd place with a blistering 2nd stint (setting fastest lap in the process), then backed off, perhaps suckering Raikkonen into turning up the revs on his sick Ferrari in an attempt to catch and pass him. Ferrari has the speed to win, but McLaren are close enough to win a tactical battle. Hamilton appears to be firmly the McLaren number 2, a tool to help Alonso maximise his chances of winning. As such, he is not a great bet for a win, or pole position, but he is a great driver, certainly smarter than Massa, who was made to look foolish in Sepang. Strange then that Massa is best priced 1.50 to get a podium in Bahrain, but Hamilton 2.10. Bahrain is also the first track of the season on which he has racing experience. 3 points Hamilton to finish on the podium at 2.10 with Unibet. won 3.3 points If the battle between the top 2 teams is close and complex, at least the form of the other teams is starting to emerge. BMW Sauber are a clear 3rd, but not able to live with the top 2 teams on pure pace, but good enough to hold them up if they have track position. Renault and Williams appear to be very close in race pace. Renault has better reliability and Williams are still to be fully satisfied that they have cracked their problem of getting the tyres to work in qualifying. Rosberg qualified 6th in Malaysia, but the very high track temperature and abrasive surface meant that getting the rubber up to temperature was easy. In Bahrain, with lower track grip, it may be a problem again. On pure pace they should be looking at getting both cars in the points, and Wurz showed that the car is very capable for making up places. Starting from 19th on the grid he finished 9th, just 1 point of landing our bet. Surely he will get a decent break and manage to qualify if not in the top 10 then not far off it. From there he is capable of finally getting some points. 3 points Wurz to finish in the points @ 2/1 with Extrabet lost 3 points Kubica has had a rotten start to 2007 and it his team mate Heidfeld who is sitting pretty at 4th in the drivers championship. Heidfeld is good and I am a fan, but Kubica was faster than him in Sepang until the team cocked up their timings and failed to get him out on track for a final run in Q3. He then got bumped on turn 1 and endured all sorts of problems. Given a clear run he would have given his team mate a run for his money. He looks a value bet for small stakes against Heidfeld and Fisichella. The BMW is comfortably faster than the Renault, even if this is a track that may suit the current World Champions. 2 points Kubica to win Group 2 @ 11/4 with BetterBet lost 2 points The trails and tribulations of Honda continue and the team are not making any changes for this race, trying instead to patch together a few improvements for Spain, before a brand new car in June. Red Bull have a better car, not a great car, but certainly faster that Honda. Coulthard enjoyed no luck in Sepang, the usual crap qualifying, but in the race he was 0.5 faster than Webber and ahead of both Hondas, before he was forced to retire when the brake peddle was rubbing against the steering column. He is capable of a top 10 finish and given a trouble free run should easily beat the troubled Hondas. 4 points Coulthard to win Group 4 @ 7/4 with Betterbet lost 4 points Barrichello had to make a very late switch to the T-Car in qualifying at Sepang, which was set up for Button, and he failed to make Q2. He has out raced Button in both races despite starting from behind on the grid. Clearly he can drive this turd of a car better than Button. Surely he can translate this into a better qualifying performance than his team mate? The odds are again to big to pass up. 2 points Barrichello to out qualify Button @ 2.90 with Bet24 won 3.8 points |
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