Bahrain GP – Sunday Update. The fact that Massa dropped the ball in Q3 means we lost the pole position bet but it does leaves with a very interesting grid. It must be said that Ferrari under-achieved in qualifying and turned a very strong looking position into one were they are now going to have to work hard to win. We have already this year that just like 2007, these cars lose a lot of performance when driving in the dirty air of a car in front and this usually results in faster cars just stuck behind the car in front until it pits. The dusty nature of this track means that the drivers starting on the odd numbers on the grid should enjoy a small advantage at the start, another problem for Ferrari. However this is a track that does allow for some reasonable overtaking opportunities and will allow the faster cars some chance to use the pace advantage, so all is not lost for the red cars. Fuel loads will play a bit part in the out come of the race and we have to suspect that pole sitter Kubica is relatively light. Certainly BMW do have a habit of running one driver considerably lighter than the other and while Heidfeld did struggle in qualifying a gap of 0.7 seconds will largely be accounted for by extra fuel. Kubica does have the real advantage of starting from pole on the clean side of the track and if he can get through turn 1 in the lead he should be able to lead until his first stop, then the fun starts. Who will have enough fuel to run a few very quick laps and make up places in the pits? Massas’ poor Q3 time was more down to driver error than a lot of fuel but I expect that he will have 1-2 laps more than Kubica and that might be enough to make the jump but only if he really nails it and we have seen that he is not someone to bank on under pressure in these days of no driver aids. Hamilton also looks to be on the light side, probably much the same as Massa so he will find it hard to jump the Ferrari, if of course he has Massa in front. From the clean side of the track, I would not be surprised to see Hamilton really attacking Massa at the start. He did him up like a kipper in Malaysia last season and I guess everyone will be leaning on Massa at every opportunity this season as he looks anything but cool under pressure. If Hammy converts 3rd into 2nd before the first stop, he has a chance to win. The pre qualifying favourite for the race, Kimi Raikkonen, had a very quiet qualifying session. Never threatening pole position and I guess that he was the victim of over confidence. Knowing he had more fuel than Massa and the car to out pace McLaren the team went a bit conservative and were mugged by Hamilton and Kubica. Starting 4th will make a win difficult and like Hamilton, his chances are dependant on a good start. Drop a place and will have too much to do, make a place, or at least keep 4th and he can make up places at the pit stops, but it would be the second stop before he was fighting for the win. I think he can do it, he has the car and has the ability to put in those killer laps when he has to, just like we saw in Malaysia. However, it may well be that a much bigger price will be available ‘in running’ as he is likely to be gapped by the lighter cars at the front in the early laps. It is hard to see Kovalainen or Heidfeld being in the fight for a win starting from the 3rd row, but they could spoil Raikkonens’ day with a good start. All things considered, this looks a very tricky race to call, with so much dependant on the start. Betting in running is probably the best way to go today but that is not much help right now! I think this race will come down to Hamilton or Raikkonen. The BMW is not as quick in race trim, it is getting there, but maybe just not yet, while Massa has never won from anywhere but pole position. Alonso won this from 4th on the grid in 2006 with a heavier load than pole sitter Schumacher, nicking it at the second pit stop. Could history repeat its self? Very possibly, but Alonso made up two places at the start and that could be the key to the race. Interestingly, Massa started that race from second on the grid, lost a place at the start before making a blunder on lap 6 which effectively ended his day, eventually finishing 9th. I don’t like Massa’s chances today. Raikkonen vs. Hamilton for the win and the red car is faster. In running bet for me, but for the record: 3 points Raikkonen to win @ 3.60 with Skybet 1 point Hamilton to win @ 6.50 with Extrabet lost 4 points I can very little else of interest, mostly boring team mate vs. team mate match ups, poor groups and a general lack of imagination from the bookies. I think Coulthard could get a good start from his usual crap qualifying position and he looks a touch of value to beat Nakajima. The Williams is a faster car but you have here an experience old pro who knows how to get the car home vs. an inexperienced, quick but perhaps a little over ambitious rookie. He crashed into Kubica in Melbourne and spun in Malaysia, with flashes of speed thrown in. The Red Bull should be able to get Coulthard up the order and his record of great starts means he could put a gap between himself and the Japanese driver on lap one. 3 points Coulthard to beat Nakajima @ 1.95 with Sportingbet. lost 3 points |
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