Bahrain GP – Friday update. 1 point Piquet to out qualify Alonso @ 4/1 with Stan James, Skybet lost 1 point Piquet was regarded as one of the fastest qualifiers in his time in GP2 and qualifying is one area were he could be allowed to beat Alonso. They were pretty close today, Piquet was 0.5 faster in free 2 but that was largely due to Alonso screwing is final run and crashing into Sutil. Certainly Alonso should be favourite to win this match up but 4/1 on Piquet just looks too big. The wind is forecast to be strong for qualifying and that means that sand will be blown onto the track, reducing grip. I feel that Alonso’s aggressive turn in driving style will not be best suited to the track conditions and that these two drivers will be a lot closer than the odds suggest. Worth a small interest. 2 points Heidfeld to be fastest qualifier w/o Ferrari & McLaren @ 3/1 with Stan James lost 2 points BMW are comfortably ahead of the midfield pack and have shown very good qualifying speed in the first two races. If anything it is their race pace that is letting them down. Kubica should have been on pole in Melbourne but for an error on his final run and Heidfeld was adamant that he was on for 3rd on the grid at Sepang before his final run was balked by the drivers slowing down to a crawl in front of him. This car is very good in qualifying and we have to remember that Heidfeld was 11-5 over Kubica in qualifying last season. I can only assume that this price is based on Kubica being faster in practice today but anyone that thinks that Heidfeld will only be 17th fastest in qualifying needs their bumps felt. Kubica is 2-0 in 2008 qualifying H2H’s but he was five laps lighter in Melbourne and was only ‘faster’ at Sepang because of Heidfeld's problems with traffic in qualifying (which of course resulted in both McLaren drivers receiving grid penalties). The value in this bet is good but the worry has to be that BMW do tend to split their strategies regarding drivers and fuel loads. So far Kubica was lighter in Australia and Heidfeld lighter in Malaysia and not just by a laps worth of fuel. Part of this bet involves the risk as to which driver is chosen to have the light load. Is it Kubica’s turn, or is it set by who is fastest in Saturday’s free practice? I have no idea but I do think that 3/1 Heidfeld is too big. Next message will be approx. 30 minutes before qualifying. |
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