Bahrain GP – Preview. Now that I have finally stopped laughing at ‘Spanker Mosley’s’ kinky sex expose in the News of the Screws at the weekend, my attention can be turned to trying make a profit on the third race of the season. The first two races have been very different affairs and provided some very different results, but there is no doubt that the McLaren vs. Ferrari theme looks set to continue through the season, but we might see BMW spring a surprise once in a while. The Bahrain International circuit is now it is fifth year and while it is another modern and rather characterless track, it should offer a better race than Sepang. The fact that it is a desert location means there is plenty of sand around and that is often blown onto the track surface, giving an unpredictable level of grip. Without driver aids we could see this causing problems. The circuit also features some very heavy braking areas which will again provide a bigger challenge than in recent years. The mix of slow corners and fast straights (63% of the lap is at full throttle) means there has to be a compromise between downforce for the corners and the low drag needed for the straights and it is a pretty tough race for man and machine. The tyres will be a grade softer than we saw in Malaysia and the same as used in Melbourne. McLaren struggled in Malaysia, especially on long duration corners were the Ferrari was more stable. In Melbourne the very abrupt corners were much more suited to McLaren and it was Ferrari who struggled. This track is different again, much the same in terms of speed, but with fewer long duration corners to upset the McLaren and it should be a closer race than either of the first two. Ferrari and Toyota did two test sessions here in February and it was at the test that the Ferrari band wagon really got rolling after some impressive times. However, they only had Toyota to be compared to and while both of these teams will have an early advantage on Friday, I do not expect that that test will give them any great advantage. Ferrari will be favourites after Raikkonen’s comprehensive thrashing of the opposition at Sepang, but he will be on a used engine (Massa may opt to use his Malaysian despite being allowed a free chance) so it will be a test of reliability in the hot, dry and sandy conditions that will prevail. Ferrari will have some new aero parts for this race and remain confident of a strong result. The poor form of Massa must be causing some alarm bells to be ringing despite a vote of confidence from Montezemolo. Two races, two major driver errors and zero points scored means that his Championship hopes are now slim and McLaren are 13 points ahead in the Constructors Championship. Massa struggled in winter testing and over a race distance, when he chasing or being pushed, the mistakes are still there. However, his qualifying lap in Malaysia was very impressive and he is often underestimated in the pole position betting. He really gave the opposition a good spanking here last season, pole position, fastest lap and race win. There is no doubt that he will be up for this weekend, maybe under a little too much pressure, but he does look a decent bet for pole position. Raikkonen has a horrible qualifying record here, twice failing to set a time and 0.5 off Massa last year. Of course the Finn was still getting to grips with the Bridgestone tyres last year and will be quicker this year, but Massa looks a touch of value at the odds. 2 points Massa to get set fastest Q3 qualifying time @ 5/2 with Ladbrokes, Sportingbet. Lost 2 points Further down the grid the fight for minor points is interesting. Renault, Red Bull, and Honda are very hard to split. Webber is able to drag the Red Bull into the top 10 on the grid but even from there he will probably need some attrition from the cars in front if he is to convert that into points. Ferrari, McLaren, BMW should take the top six positions, Trulli and the Toyota looks good for at least 7th given his solid grid positions and the car decent race pace. Rosberg should also be a top 8 contender, so long as the Williams doesn’t throw a hissy fit and decide it doesn’t like the tarmac this weekend. Certainly the worst value bet on offer has to be Alonso to finish in the points. As low as 1.40 is a joke. Perhaps one outsider to consider for a points finish is Jenson Button. I was not alone in believing that Honda were going to have another nightmare season but they did make massive strides in the week before the first race and again in Malaysia where Button only missed Q3 by a whisker and ended up setting a fastest lap bettered only by three other drivers. That may a little misleading as Massa was out and Raikkonen wasn’t pushing, but underlines that the car has potential, is improving and if they can continue this tread, then they should be able to compete for points sooner rather than later. News is that Honda have some new parts for this race while most teams will have big upgrades for the next race, so they might well make another step forwards, relative to their closest competitors. 2 points Button to finish in the points @ 3.75 with Extrabet. lost 2 points Toyota have made a promising start to the season not quite the third best as Trulli had predicted, but unless Williams get their consistency sorted, they look a solid 4th best. Glock hasn’t really got to grips with it yet, but Trulli has qualified on the third row in both races and can do so again this weekend. That makes a points finish very possible, but he looks better value in Corals Wacky Races market. With none of the ‘big 3’ teams in the market and not even Alonso or the Williams pair, he looks a firm favourite against the likes of Webber (who finished 23 seconds behind him in Malaysia) Glock, Coulthard etc. Trulli has had some good results here in the past and the fact that Toyota held a major test here in February can only be a positive 3 points Trulli to win the Wacky Races @ 2/1 with Corals. won 6 points The final bet at this point is on the number of finishers. The opening race of the season was a freak with just eight cars classified. Most of the retirements were the results of bad driving and that can happen at Melbourne. The first race of the season under new rules and some drivers simply got too excited and over drove. There were some engine problems for Ferrari and their customers, but take out the crashes and the retirement rate was not that big. Malaysia was much more ‘normal’ with just five retirements, a couple of Ferrari engines failing and three driver errors. That retirement rate was normal for Sepang, if anything slightly on the low side. The Bahrain track is only four years old but it has never been the scene of any really high attrition rate races. The climate is almost always warm and dry, the circuit has huge run off areas that allow the drivers to recover the kind of mistakes that would end in retirement in Melbourne and the drivers have settled in to the rhythm of races again. This bet would have won every time in the last four seasons and looks over priced. 4 points over 15.5 cars to finish @ 5/6 with Skybet. won 3.33 points |
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