Australian GP – Preview.
This should be the race when we really learn what way the season is going. Bahrain and Malaysia are both modern, Herman Tilke designed tracks held in very hot conditions, unlike the bulk of the European season where the tracks are more quirky and often considerably cooler. The track temperature has a major impact on tyre selection and indeed, how the rubber reacts to the surface. Those tiny little contact patches between tyre and the planet Earth is just about as important to a drivers chances of success as the rest of the car put together. If the tyres don’t work, even a master like Schumacher can forget about winning, just witness his 2005 seasons results. Melbourne’s Commonwealth Games heat-wave has passed and we are looking at temperatures around the 17 – 18 mark, with partly cloudy conditions which will limit the sun heating up the tarmac. Instead of track temps of over 40 plus, we are more likely to see 20 – 22 degrees. So will these conditions suit one tyre manufacturer better than another? Last year is a waste of time as a tyre form guide, the 1 tyre per race meant the compounds where much harder and Bridgestone failed to rise to the challenge. In 2004 and before Bridgestone had a reputation for being much better in cool conditions, Michelin excelled in hotter environments. So far this season Bridgestone and Michelin have been very closely matched, perhaps a little surprisingly as the first two races were in the hot conditions Bridgestone previously struggled in. This new tyre needed hot conditions to work, they will not work in the cooler conditions Melbourne. Do Bridgestone have a tyre that will be as good in the cool conditions as the 2004 rubber? It seems reasonable to suggest they will have, they know what is required and have the expertise. They also have a very impressive record at Melbourne, 6 wins in the last 8 races. They now have more than one top team testing for them and over the winter they did a massive amount of development work and it seems to have paid off. However, Williams are hinting that if it is cold in Melbourne, they will suffer as they never got the car working well in cold conditions in winter testing. So it looks very hard to call and you can argue the case for or against a Bridgestone advantage this weekend. Of the Bridgestone runners, Only Ferrari and Williams look capable of delivering a pole/race win, Toyota have struggled to get heat into their Bridgestones and while progress has been made, they are some way behind. Williams look interesting as they have a very good engine (both refresh) and two drivers who know that this could be their best chance of a win, if the tyres work of course. Webber is the big home favourite and that is not always a good thing for an F1 driver in Australia as he will spend much of the weekend cuddling Kola bears, throwing boomerangs and having 50 microphones stuffed in his face every time he steps out of the car. It can all be a bit draining for even the most media friendly of drivers. To make matters worse for Webber he has an annoyingly quick team mate who, judging by his Schumacher style chop block on his team mate at the start of the Malaysian race, is not operating as compliant No. 2 driver. This young Rosberg chap looks very special, quick and fearless and of course he makes the kind of mistakes that come with only 20 years old, but I like the quick and fearless bit enough to have a punt on odds that look close to insulting. 3 points e/w Rosberg outright @ 40/1 with Sportingbet, SportingOdds. lost 6 points Williams have a competitive car at the moment, with perhaps the most powerful engine and if the Bridgestones work in the cool conditions, the new boy wonder could cause the surprise of the season. Williams will have all the taps on full, they need a win to keep all the blue chip sponsors on bard and Cosworth are looking to sell engines next season so the revs will be allowed to run to the max. It’s just those black things on the corners that could make this bet sink like very big stone, but the price is right and it has to be backed. We can take some hope from Toyota’s Mike Gascoyne who described the latest Bridgestone tyres they tested in cool conditions at Paul Richard last week as “a very, very big step forward”. Pole position betting looks like being a bookies benefit this season. There are 5 teams close enough to each others pace to make a few kilos of fuel less in the tank all that is needed to snatch pole. We also have the added complication of having 10 cars on the track in final qualifying and traffic is once again a drivers excuse for cocking up his flying lap. It is a bit of a lottery. The Melbourne circuit is very hard to overtake on and that makes pole position more desirable so we should see most teams moving to a short first stint and low fuel in qualifying. If anyone is tempted to run a bit heavier it could be Renault. They have proved quick at the race starts and they do have the fastest car and can put in the killer laps before they stop. McLaren have been carrying a heavy load in the first two races and it hasn’t looked very successful, surely they will be tempted to go lower and we will see Kimi in full attack on Saturday. M. Schumacher and Fisichella have scored the first 2 poles in 2006, not obvious choices, but if we do get reasonable uniform qualifying strategies the favourites should be on the front 2 rows and perhaps the driver will make more difference than the fuel loads this weekend. Alonso, Button and Raikkonen all are excellent qualifiers but I have a feeling that the old master can come out on top on Saturday. He can beat Senna’s record for poles this weekend and we saw just how happy he was with pole in Bahrain, he is still awesome when he has to put in a fast one and he is a good track qualifier. Ignoring last years rain affected lottery, Schumacher has always been on the front 2 rows and from 2004 – 20001 he has scored 3 poles and a 2nd. Again the tyres are a worry but he is worth a small bet for pole. 1 point M. Schumacher to set fastest qualifying time @ 6/1 with Sportingbet, SportingOdds. lost 1 point Raikkonen has not enjoyed much luck so far this season and he might do well to beat Montoya in qualifying on Saturday. In his 5 qualifying results here he has never out qualified a team mate, he has been out performed by Heidfeld, Coulthard and Montoya. No shame in that, but for a driver of Raikkonens standing it is enough to suggest that the ‘point and squirt’ nature of the track does not suit him. 3 points Montoya to out qualify Raikkonen @ 6/4 with Skybet lost 3 points With so many questions about the performance of the tyres, this may be a race where the bets will have to come later in the weekend. No more bets at this time. Check back late Friday for any updates, but it is likely the next block of bets will be after qualifying. |
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Betting Previews
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