Australian GP – Saturday Update. The first competitive session of the season certainly threw up a few surprises and sadly two of the earlier bets now look beat after mechanical failures for Webber and Raikkonen. The biggest surprise was the pace of the BMW’s who must have spent the winter carrying a lot of fuel all the time as they suddenly burst from the midfield to threaten pole position. In truth Kubica was heading for pole position until a mistake on his final lap handed it to Hamilton. Of course only half the picture is clear as we do not know the relative fuel loads but based on last years Aussie GP, it may well be that BMW have split strategies for the two drivers, one light one heavy in case of an early safety car deployment. Certainly if Kubica is considerably lighter, then he will struggle to finish on the podium, but with both cars in the top 5, BMW are looking strong and that must be a worry for Ferrari. The red team got 2008 of to a pretty poor start with both drivers well off the pace in the morning and then losing Raikkonen to a fuel pressure failure in Q2. To make matters worse, Massa could only manage fourth on the grid with both McLarens ahead and on the clean side of the grid. It seems like Ferrari was flattered by some of their winter testing times and there is little evidence to suggest that they have the fastest car this weekend. Massa is talking a good fight, saying that they are stronger over a longer run, but he is not in a great grid position to win from and a podium will not be a certainty bearing mind this fuel pressure problem and his sometimes erratic driving without TC. Raikkonen is said to have had a problem with the fuel pressure yesterday as well and the Ferrari powered Torro Rosso of Vettel did not set a time in Q3 also due to a fuel pressure problem. Certainly a big worry for Ferrari. Raikkonen will start well down the grid and is likely to run a heavy fuel one stop race and try and get a few points, much as Massa did last year. It will be hard because this car does not have the time advantage they had here in 2007 and a top 6 finish will be good result. Amazingly he is still favourite in a few places to set the fastest lap but with a heavy fuel run he in traffic he is unlikely to manage that. Last year Massa’s best lap was over 1.70 seconds of the fastest lap. Raikkonen had to start from 16th in Monaco last year and could only end up 1. 3 seconds off the fastest lap time. Another example was Massa in Hungary starting 14th and being 0.9 seconds off the fastest lap, so it is very hard to be the fastest when starting in traffic and with a big fuel load. The Melbourne track is very hard to over take on and Raikkonen will have his work cut out just to make the top 8 never mind set fastest lap. It is much more likely that it will be set by Hamilton, Massa or Kubica. Hamilton has the advantage of pole and two of the last four fastest laps here have been set by the pole position driver. He has the edge over Kovalainen at this point in time and if the Ferrari really is quicker over a race distance Massa is the obvious danger having scored six fastest laps in 2007. However, his record on this track is poor and under pressure he is rarely at his best, a good front runner for sure but maybe not so good in a scrap. The BMW’s have to be considered and it is Kubica who has looked much happier in this years car all winter and has been faster in three of the four session this weekend. 3 points Hamilton to set fastest lap @ 3.60 with SportingBet. 1 point Massa to set fastest lap @ 5.50 with SportingBet 1 point Kubica to set fastest lap @ 17.00 with Paddy Power. lost 5 points Our bet on Webber looks cooked after he was force of the track after what appeared to be a brake failure in Q2 but the pace of the Red Bull is good and to see Coulthard qualifying in 8th place underlines this. If one of the worst qualifying drivers in F1 can stick it in 8th, just imagine what Webber could have done! While the Scot may be a poor qualifier there is nothing wrong with his race pace and he was one of the fastest drivers off the line in the pre TC days. He has a wise old head and knows his way around this track, especially the ruck that can be the first corner chaos in Melbourne. I would not be surprised to see him make up a couple of places on the first lap and score a good result. The big worry of course is that he is driving the car with a terrible reputation for reliability. Over the winter they had a few ‘issues’ but by and large pretty reliable. As soon as they got here, Coulthard managed five laps before retiring to the pits with smoke pouring from the back of car. Then we had Webbers failure in qualifying. Bullet proof reliability is still some way off it appears. He looks a good price in Corals ‘Whacky Races’ market which has none of the Ferrari, McLaren, BMW, Williams or Renaults. Trulli is the favourite at 2/1 but Coulthard has been quicker in Q1 and Q2, in Free 2 and 3, only did five laps in free 1 and was only 0.3 off Trulli’s time. Given the fact that Trulli is regarded as a qualifying master and Coulthard to one of the worst, to be 0.5 seconds slower in Q3 is pretty encouraging. It is only 2 grid places and DC could have that gap overhauled on the first lap. If it were not for very grave concerns about the cars reliability, this 7/2 would rate as a strong bet but caution has to be taken give the poor record of the team at getting the cars home. 2 points Coulthard to win the Whacky Races @ 7/2 with Corals. lost 2 points On the match betting front Sato could be a steal at 4/5 with Corals to beat Davidson. The team have no spare parts and if the break a car tomorrow, it will not race in Malaysia so they will be using the track time to get some experience of the car and avoid crashing, they will not be racing. Davidson has very little time in the car and has been around 0.7 seconds slower in every session. Perhaps Sato has a car with an extra part on it, like a steering wheel. The worry again is reliability, with so little time we do not know if it will last, but as it is last years Honda, it should be ok and starting at the back, they should be able to avoid any first lap argy bargy. Small stake bet. 2 points Sato to beat Davidson @ 4/5 with Corals. won 1.6 points Renault endured a pretty dreadful qualifying session with Alonso in 12th and unbelievably, Piquet back in 21st, actually beaten by a Super Aguri. I suspect his rather large ego has been well and truly pricked. Alonso did expect to struggle in qualifying and he was not helped by a differential problem, but the car does not look likely to score anything more than a point, even in the talented hands of Alonso. Rosberg in the Williams looks to have the better car and getting a four place head start on the grid does make the offer of evens to beat Alonso look rather generous. 3 points Rosberg to beat Alonso @ evens with SportingBet. won 3 points |
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